Ukrainian Hybrid War – Quo Vadis?

Open access

Abstract

Although it is known for a long time, hybrid war taken place in Ukraine under the umbrella of Russian Federation surprised the whole world and produced the greatest worry for humankind’s fate since the World War II. The political and military analysts appreciate if the World War III does not come will at least follow a long time of a new cold war. Remembering the hybrid war is not declared, can be prolonged in time and the adversary is unknown, thus neither the aggressor state, it is hard to settle which are the countermeasures and how should be act when this clever adversary attacks you using hostile propaganda, to the limit of trick and war perfidy (the first is allowed as method of war, the latter is not), influences the political decision-makers by blackmail, military, economic and energetic deterrence or nuclear bombardments and undergoes subversive, clandestine actions and particularly it is hard to predict their consequences.

If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.

  • 1. Definiţia Dreptului Internaţional Umanitar şi locul său în ordinea legală internaţională http://www.crucearosie.ro/uploads/images/Conventia%20de%20la%20Geneva%20pdfuri/Definitia%20DIU%20si%20locul%20sau%20in%20ordinea%20legala%20internationala.pdf (accessed April 4 2015 (Apud: Hans-Peter Gasser “International Humanitarian Law - An introduction” in: Hans Haug Humanity for all Henry Dunant Institute 1993) 509: “International humanitarian law can be defined as the totality of international conventional or customary rules regulating the humanitarian issues as direct result of international and national armed conflict. By humanitarian reasons they restrict the right of parties involved in an armed conflict to use means and methods of war and intends to protect persons and goods into the conflict”.

  • 2. See Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I) 8 June 1977 https://www.icrc.org/ihl/INTRO/470 (accessed March 3 2015).

  • 3. International Justice Court Statute Art. 38 line1 let. c. “The Court has the missions to solve in conformity to the international law the disputes complied to it and will apply: … the international customary law as proof of overall accepted” https://jurisdictie.wordpress.com/2013/12/02/statutul-curtii-internationale-de-justitie-in-limba-romana/ (accessed March 28 2015.

  • 4. Jean Marie Henckaerts Studiul privind dreptul internaţional umanitar cutumiar contribuţie la înţelegerea şi respectarea dreptului în conflictele armate https://www.icrc.org/eng/assets/files/other/rom-irrc_857_henckaerts.pdf (accessed March 03 2015).

  • 5. As the Apeal Court settled “an armed conflict is indifferently if is undergone among the armed forces of two states or manifest as prolonged violence among the governmental authorities and organized armed groups or among these groups and the state” (See: Prosecutor v. Dusko Tadic Case No. IT-94-1-AR72 Decision on the Defence Motion for Interlocutory Appeal on Jurisdiction 2 October 1995 (concerning “Decision for Tadic case”) para. 70 http://www.icty.org/x/cases/tadic/acdec/en/51002.htm (accessed April 5 2015).

  • 6. “It suffices to recall that an armed conflict is distinguished from internal disturbances by the level of intensity of the conflict and the degree of organization of the parties to the conflict. Under Additional Protocol II the parties to the conflict will usually either be the government confronting dissident armed forces or the government fighting insurgent organized armed groups. The term armed forces’ of the High Contracting Party is to be defined broadly so as to cover all armed forces as described within national legislations”. See: The Prosecutor versus Jean-Paul Akayesu Case No. ICTR-96-4-T http://www.unictr.org/sites/unictr.org/files/case-documents/ictr-96-4/trial-judgements/en/980902.pdf (accessed April 3 2015) 156.

  • 7. Jarka Beatrice Onica Drept internaţional umanitar - Note de curs (Bucharest: Universul Juridic Publishing House 2010) 18-25.

  • 8. Sea: International Court of Justice Case Concerning Military and Paramilitary Activities in and against Nicaragua 27th of June 1986 http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/70/6503.pdf (accessed April 4 2015).

  • 9. Celine Tran La responsabilité internationale de l’Etat pour le fait d’acteurs non étatiques: approche différenciée de deux juridictions internationales 30th of May 2011 http://m2bde.u-paris10.fr/content/la-responsabilit%C3%A9-internationale-de-l%E2%80%99etat-pour-le-fait-d%E2%80%99acteurs-non-%C3%A9tatiques-approche-d-0?destination=node%2F2232 (accessed April 5 2015).

  • 10. Sea: Prosecutor v. Dusko Tadic Case No. IT-94-1-AR72 para 132-145 http://www.icty.org/x/cases/tadic/acdec/en/51002.htm (accessed April 5 2015).

  • 11. For details on the definition of hybrid conflict see: Glenn W. Russell Thoughts on “Hybrid” Conflict http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/188-glenn.pdf; United States Government Accountability Office Hybrid Warfare 10 septembrie 2010 http://www.gao.gov/assets/100/97054.html; Petri Huovinen Hybrid Warfare - Just a Twist of Compound Warfare? Views on warfare from the United States Armed Forces perspective https://www.doria.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/74215/E4081_HuovinenKPO_EUK63.pdf?sequence=1 (April 2011).

  • 12. Emanuel Peterliceanu Războiul hibrid - noua ameninţare la adresa stabilităţii globale General Philip Breedlove the military commandant of NATO said “Use by Russian troops without uniform the so-called «little green men» and perhaps the most startling information in blitzkrieg that we saw in the information war history was part of the first Russian assault in Ukraine”. “What we see in Russia now in this hybrid approach of war is that they are using all the tools we have to agitate then begin to exploit them through their military equipment” 17.09.2014 http://www.ifz.ro/razboiul-hibrid-noua-amenintarela-adresa-stabilitatii-globale/html (accessed April 5 2015.

  • 13. Ce este “războiul hibrid” dus de Rusia în Ucraina şi cum a fost el pregătit de zece ani sub ochii permisivi ai Occidentului 1st of September 2014 http://www.hotnews.ro/stiriinternational-18014446-este-razboiul-hibrid-dus-rusia-ucraina-cum-fost-pregatit-zece-ani-sub-ochii-permisivi-occidentului.htm (accessed January 5 2014).

  • 14. Article The “Gerasimov Doctrine” and Russian Non-Linear War https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/the-gerasimov-doctrine-and-russian-non-linear-war/ and article Ukraine: Russia’s new art of war by Sam Jones http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/ea5e82fa-2e0c-11e4-b760-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3VFP2i8bD (accessed April 3 2015.

  • 15. Article Vald Ilina Traian Basescu se teme de invazia omuleţilor verzi ai ruşilor în presa românească 14.09.2014 “I fear most the little green men before the little green men with rifles. Basescu's statement refers to a possible appearance in Romania of ‘elements’ in the media to spread Kremlin propaganda in our country. In his statement to the Summit talked about hybrid war. It is a war of ‘little green men’ and you’re watching the film in Ukraine you will see that the first media war began followed destabilization inside and then it came to armed little green men” http://www.paginaeuropeana.ro/traian-basescuse-teme-de-invazia-omuletilor-verzi-ai-rusilor-in-presa-romaneasca/ (accessed April 2 2015).

  • 16. Article Definiţii pentru conflictul din regiunile estice ale Ucrainei 04.04.2015 http://www.europalibera.org/content/article/25424205.html. Moldovan analyst Igor Botan said: “We people from Republic of Moldova know and in particular those who have followed the unfolding of the Transnistrian conflict we see that things are drawn as indigo: the same civil war the central charges of war against its own people with all arsenal participants coming from Russian Federation allegedly are individuals and so on. But after more than 20 years I think in this post-Soviet space I learned that real goals and how you plan to achieve these goals”.

  • 17. Case concerning the military and paramilitary activities in and against Nicaragua (Nicaragua v. United States of America) (merits) judgement of 27th of June 1986 http://www.icjcij.org/docket/?sum=367&p1=3&p2=3&case=70&p3=5 (accessed April 4 2015).

  • 18. For details see: Nicaragua Vs United States (Summary) On Self Defence And Use Of Force https://ruwanthikagunaratne.wordpress.com/2012/11/15/nicaragua-vs-us-casesummary/ (accessed April 6 2015).

  • 19. Gheorghe Văduva “Impactul geopolitic al summit-ului NATO din Ţara Galilor pe axa Marea Neagră - Marea Baltică” Univers strategic Anul V nr. 4(20) (2014): 9-23.

  • 20. Article Ce este “războiul hibrid” dus de Rusia în Ucraina şi cum a fost el pregătit de zece ani sub ochii permisivi ai Occidentului 01.09.2014 http://www.hotnews.ro/stiriinternational-18014446-este-razboiul-hibrid-dus-rusia-ucraina-cum-fost-pregatit-zeceani-sub-ochii-permisivi-occidentului.htm (accessed April 3 2015).

  • 21. Article Războiul hibrid şi braţul său nevăzut: spionajul 23.03.2015 http://www.etransmedia.ro/razboiul_hibrid_si_bratul_sau_nevazut_spionajul-4772 (accessed April 2 2015).

  • 22. Ibidem.

  • 23. “Se apropie cel de-al Treilea Război Mondial” Publika MD 04.02.2015 http://www.publika.md/expert-militar-rus--se-apropie-cel-de-al-treilea-razboimondial_2225991.html (accessed March 30 2015).

  • 24. Germania îşi schimbă strategia militară pentru a face faţă războiului hibrid folosit de Rusia 18th of February 2015 http://adevarul.ro/international/europa/germania-isi-ischimba-strategia-militara-fata-razboiului-hibrid-folosit-rusia-1_54e4ac27448e03c0fdbe1bc5/index.html (accessed April 18 2015).

  • 25. Robert A. Newson “Why the US Needs a Strategy To Counter ‘Hybrid Warfare’” October 23 2014 http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2014/10/why-us-needs-strategycounter- hybrid-warfare/97259/ or Ioana Ivan “Războiul hibrid o provocare pentru armata americană” 26.11.2014 http://incomemagazine.ro/articole/razboiul-hibrid-o-provocare-pentru-armata-americana (accesate March 30 2015).

  • 26. Paul Ciocoiu “Efectul manevrelor agresive ale Rusiei în Marea Baltică: Suedia şi Finlanda vor o forţă navală comună” 18.02.2015 http://www.evz.ro/efectulrusia.html (accessed March 29 2015).

  • 27. Simona Mătieş “Serviciile secrete britanice angajează spioni vorbitori de limba rusă care să stea cu ochii pe Putin” 17.02.2015 http://www.evz.ro/serviciile-secretebritanice-angajeaza-spioni-vorbitori-de-limba-rusa-care-sa-stea-cu-ochii-pe-putin.html (accessed March 22 2015).

  • 28. Decret semnat: Rusia angajează mercenari! 04.01.2015 http://www.digi24.ro/Stiri/Digi24/Extern/Stiri/rusia+mercenari+armata (accessed March 3 2015).

  • 29. Raluca Joiţa “Top 10 - Cele mai mari forţe militare din lume” 19.04.2014 http://media.imopedia.ro/stiri-imobiliare/top-10-cele-mai-mari-forte-militare-din-lume-22334.html (accessed March 5 2015).

  • 30. Mihai Drăghici “Rusia va avea 50 de nave şi submarine suplimentare în 2015. Unele ar putea ajunge în Marea Neagră” http://www.mediafax.ro/externe/rusia-va-avea-50-de-nave-si-submarine-suplimentare-in-2015-unele-ar-putea-ajunge-in-marea-neagra-13920931 (accessed March 15 2015).

  • 31. Director of Center for Political-Military Studies in Moscow.

  • 32. “Rusia avertizează România” http://www.digi24.ro/Stiri/Digi24/Extern/Europa/Rusia+avertizeaza+Romania 32. 1th of February 2015 and “Ruşii deranjaţi de apropierea structurilor NATO de graniţele lor. Avertisment la adresa României” 9th of February 2015 http://stiri.tvr.ro/rusii--deranjati-de-apropierea-structurilor-nato-de-granitele-lor--avertisment-la-adresa-romaniei_56370.html (accessed March 15 2015).

  • 33. The current situation will inevitably lead to the outbreak of World War III. This is the opinion Vernochet Jean-Michel a French writer political analyst journalist specialist in conspiracy theories and an expert in the Middle East and Russia. More details on: http://romanian.ruvr.ru/2014_07_01/Al-Treilea-Razboi-Mondial-la-orizont-7404/.

  • 34. “Presa rusă pretinde ca în Ucraina a început al Treilea Război Mondial” http://www.ziare.com/international/ucraina/presa-rusa-pretinde-ca-in-ucraina-a-inceput-al-treilea-razboi-mondial-1326741 (accessed April 5 2015).

  • 35. Collocation available online at: http://www.rightwords.ro/citate/nu-stiu-cu-ce-arme-va-fi-luptat-cel-de-al-treilea-razboi--17119 (accessed April 5 2015).

Search
Journal information
Target audience: researchers, experts, practitioners in the filed of political law
Metrics
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 391 217 7
PDF Downloads 164 135 7