This study develops an integrated innovation for malaria early warning systems (MEWS), based on vulnerability monitoring, seasonal climate variability data, and epidemiologic surveillance. The main aim of the study is to examine the relationship between intra-annual climate variability and malaria transmission in Nigeria. For this study, climatic conditions considered suitable for the development of the malaria parasite and its transmission through the mosquito stage of its life cycle are temperatures within the range from 18°C to 32°C. Below 18°C the parasite development decreases significantly, while above 32°C the survival of the mosquito is compromised. Relative humidity greater than 60% is also considered a requirement for the mosquito to survive long enough for the parasite to develop sufficiently to be transmitted to its human host stage. The research findings show that seasonality of climate greatly influences the seasonality of malaria transmission. Specifically, rainfall plays an important role in the distribution and maintenance of breeding sites for the mosquito vector. Rainfall and surface water is required for the egg laying and larval stages of the mosquito life cycle and monthly rainfall above 80 mm is considered a requirement. Also, it is temperature that regulates the development rate of both the mosquito larvae and the malaria parasite (Plasmodium species) within the mosquito host. Relative humidity and temperature play an important role in the survival and longevity of the mosquito vector. This study is in conformity with the findings of the IPCC (2001) that malaria is caused by four distinct species of the Plasmodium parasite, transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles, which are most abundant in tropical/subtropical regions, although they are also found in limited numbers in temperate climates.
If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.
Afrane, Y.A., Lawson, B.W., Githeko, A.K. and Yan, G., 2005: Effects of microclimatic changes due to land use and land cover on the duration of gonotrophic cycles of Anopheles gambiae Giles (Diptera: Culicidae) in western Kenya highlands. In: Journal of MedicalEntomology, Vol. 42, pp. 974-980. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1603/0022-2585(2005)042[0974:EOMCCB]2.0.CO;2
Ameneshewa, B. and Service, M.W., 1996: Resting habits of Anopheles arabiensis in the Awash River valley of Ethiopia. In: Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Vol. 90, pp. 515-521. PMID: 8915128
Appawu, M., Owusu-Agyei, S., Dadzie, S., Asoala, V.,Anto, F., Koram, K., Rogers W., Nkrumah, S., Hoffman,S.L. and Fryauff, D.J., 2004: Malaria transmission dynamics at a site in northern Ghana proposed for testing malaria vaccines. In: Tropical Medicine &International Health, Vol. 9, pp. 164-170. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-3156.2003.01162.x
Ayoade, J.O., 1970: Rain gauge networks and the areal extension of rainfall records. In: Occasional Papers, No. 10, London: University of London, Department of Geography, p. 15.
Burkot, T.R. and Graves, P.M., 1995: The value of vector- based estimation of malaria transmission. In: Annalsof Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, Vol. 89, pp. 125-134. PMID:7605122
Connor, S., Thomson, M. and Molyneux, D., 1999: Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: new perspectives on an old problem. In: Parassitologia, Vol. 41, pp. 439-448. PMID:10697900
Craig, M.H., Snow, R.W. and le Sueur, D., 1999: A climate- based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. In: Parasitology Today, Vol. 15, pp. 105-111. PII: S0169-4758(99)01396-4
CRU TS Database: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich: University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, NR 4 7TJ, UK, available from: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/, DoA: 21October 2010.
Final Report to Environmental Health Project, Washington, DC: USAID.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1990: First Assessment Report: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1996: Second Assessment Report: Contribution of Working Group I to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
IRI Database, 2006: International Research Institute for Climate & Society (IRI), Lamont Campus, Palisades, New York: The Earth Institute at Columbia University.
McMicheal, A.J. and Githeko, A., 2001: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Human Health. In: McCarthy, J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J. and White, K.S. editors, Climate change. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, contribution ofWorking Group II to the Third Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
McMicheal, A.J., Campbell-Lendrum, D.H., Corvalan,C.F., Ebi, K.L., Githenko, A.K., Scheraga, J.D. andWoodward, A. editors, 2003: Climate change and human health: risks and responses, Geneva: WHO, available from: www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/en, DoA: 21 December 2007.
National Population Commission (NPC), 2006: Population census and household data survey for Nigeria, Abuja: Federal Government of Nigeria.
Odekunle, T.O., 2004: Rainfall and the length of the growing season in Nigeria. In: International Journal ofClimatology, Vol. 24, pp. 467-479. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1012
Olaniran, O.J., 1985: On the distribution of rainfall in storms of different sizes in Nigeria. In: Nigerian GeographicalJournal, Vol. 28, pp. 95-113.
Olaniran, O.J., 1988a: The distribution in space of rain days of rainfall of different daily amounts in the tropics: Nigeria as a case study. In: Geoforum, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 507-520. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7185(88)80021-6
Olanrian, O.J., 1988b: The July - August rainfall anomaly in Nigeria. In: Climatological Bulletin, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 26-38.
Thomson, M., Graves, P.M., Barnston, A.G., Bell, M.,Ceccato, P., Connor, S., del Corra, l.J., Giannini, A.,Obsomer, V., Wolde-Georgis, T., Jaiteh, M., Levy,M. and Lukang, L., 2005a: Towards a malaria early warning system for Eritrea. Final Report to Environmental Health Project, Washington, DC: USAID.
Thomson, M.C. and Connor, S.J., 2001: The development of malaria early warning systems for Africa. In: Trends in Parasitology, Vol. 17, pp. 438-445. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1471-4922(01)02077-3
Thomson, M.C., Connor, S.J, Phindela, T. and Mason,S.J., 2005b: Use of rainfall and sea- surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana. In: The American Journal of Tropical Medicine andHygiene, Vol. 73, pp. 214-221.
Toulmin, C., 2005: Africa and climate change. In: Tiempo, Vol. 57, Special Issue on climate change and Africa, pp. 12-15.
Wagbatsoma, V.A. and Ogbeide, O., 1995: Towards malaria control in Nigeria. In: The Journalof the Royal Society for the Promotion of Health, Vol. 115, No. 6, pp. 363-365. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/146642409511500607
Walter, M.W., 1968: Length of the rainy season in Nigeria. In: Samaru Research Bulletin, No. 103, Zaria: Ahmadu Bello University.
WHO, 2000: Severe and complicated malaria. In: Transactionsof the Royal Society of tropical medicine andhygiene, 94 (supplement).
WHO, 2001: Malaria early warning systems, concepts, indicators and partners. A framework for field research in Africa, Geneva.
WHO, 2002: Final Report on the third meeting of the RBM technical resource network on epidemic prevention and control, Geneva.
WHO, 2003: The Africa malaria report 2003, Vol. WHO/ CDS/MAL/2003.1093.
WHO, 2004: Field Guide for malaria epidemic assessment and reporting. Draft for field testing, Geneva, available from: www.WHO/HTM/MAL/2004.1097, DoA: 11 January 2008.
WHO, 2005: World malaria report, Geneva. http://www.nigeriahc.org.uk/about-nigeria