Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Spread of ASF in the Russian Federation in 2017-2019

Blokhin Andrey 1 , Toropova Nadezhda 1 , Burova Olga 1 , Sevskikh Timofey 1 , Gogin Andrey 1 , Debeljak Zoran 2  and Zakharova Olga 1
  • 1 Federal Research Center for Virology and Microbiology (FRCVM), , Russian Federation
  • 2 Veterinary Specialized Institute “Kraljevo”, , Kraljevo, Serbia

Abstract

Currently, African swine fever (ASF) is one of the biggest global economic challenges in Europe and Asia. Despite all the efforts done to understand the mechanism of spread, presence and maintenance of ASF in domestic pigs and wild boar, there are still many gaps in the knowledge on its epidemiology.

This study aims to describe spatial and temporal patterns of ASF spread in wild boar and domestic pigs in the country during the last three years. Methods of Spatio-temporal scanning statistics of Kulldorff (SatScan) and Mann-Kendell statistics (space-time cube) were used to identify potential clusters of outbreaks and the presence of hot spots (areas of active flare clusters), respectively. The results showed that ASF in the country has a local epidemic pattern of spread (11 explicit clusters in wild boar and 16 epizootic clusters were detected in the domestic pig population: 11 in the European part and 5 in the Asian part), and only six of them are overlapped suggesting that ASF epidemics in domestic pigs and wild boar are two separate processes. In the Nizhny Novgorod, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Novgorod, Pskov, Leningrad regions, the clusters identified are characterized as sporadic epidemics clusters, while in the Ulyanovsk region, Primorsky Territory, and the Jewish Autonomous Region the clusters are consistent. Considering the low biosecurity level of pig holdings in the far east and its close economic and cultural connections with China as well as other potential risk factors, it can be expected that the epidemic will be present in the region for a long time. The disease has spread in the country since 2007, and now it is reoccurring in some of the previously affected regions. Outbreaks in the domestic pig sector can be localized easily (no pattern detected), while the presence of the virus in wildlife (several consecutive hot spots detected) hampers its complete eradication. Although the disease has different patterns of spread over the country its driving forces remain the same (human-mediated spread and wild boar domestic-pigs mutual spillover). The results indicate that despite all efforts taken since 2007, the policy of eradication of the disease needs to be reviewed, especially measures in wildlife.

If the inline PDF is not rendering correctly, you can download the PDF file here.

  • 1. Iglesias I, Rodriguez A, Feliziani F, Rolesu S, de la Torre A: Spatio-temporal analysis of African swine fever in Sardinia (2012–2014). Trends in Domestic Pigs and Wild Boar. Transbound Emerg Dis 2017, 64(2):656–662.

  • 2. Mazur-Panasiuk N, Zmudzki J, Wozniakowski G.: African swine fever virus – persistence in different environmental conditions and the possibility of its indirect transmission. J Vet Res. 2019, 63 (3):303-310.

  • 3. Li F, Wang J, Zhang J, Liu X, Wang L, Zhang J, Wu X, Guan Y, Chen W, Wang X, He X, Bu Z: Replication and virulence in pigs of the first African swine fever virus isolated in China. Emerg Microbes Infect 2019, 8 (1):438-447.

  • 4. Abrahantes JC, Gogin A, Richardson J, Gervelmeyer A: Epidemiological analyses on African swine fever in the Baltic countries and Poland. EFSA Journal 2017, 15 (3).

  • 5. Boklund A, Cay B, Depner K, Földi Z, Guberti V, Masiulis M, Miteva A, More S, Olsevskis E, Satran P, Spiridon M, Stahl K, Thulke HH, Viltrop A, Wozniakowski G, Broglia A, Abrahantes JC, Dhollander S, Gogin A, Verdonck F, Amato L, Papanikolaou A, Gortazar C: Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union (November 2017 until November 2018). EFSA Journal 2018, 16 (11).

  • 6. Lu Y, Deng X, Chen J, Wang J, Chen Q, Niu B: Risk analysis of African swine fever in Poland based on spatio-temporal pattern and Latin hypercube sampling, 2014-2017. BMS Vet Res 2019, 15:160.

  • 7. 7. Schulz K, Conraths FJ, Blome S, Staubach C, Sauter-Louis C: African Swine Fever: Fast and Furious or Slow and Steady. Viruses 2019, 11 (9):866.

  • 8. Bosch J, Rodriguez A, Iglesias I, Muñoz MJ, Jurado C, Sánchez-Vizcaíno J M, De La Torre A: Update on the Risk of Introduction of African swine fever by Wild Boar into Disease-Free European Union Countries. Transbound Emerg Dis 2017, 64 (5):1424-1432.

  • 9. De La Torre A, Bosch J, Iglesias I, Muñoz MJ, Mur L, Martínez-López B, Martínez M, Sánchez-Vizcaíno JM: Assessing the Risk of African swine fever Introduction into the European Union by Wild Boar. Transbound Emerg Dis 2015, 62 (3):272-279.

  • 10. Lichoti JK, Davies J, Kitala PM, Githigia SM, Okoth E, Maru Y, Bukachi SA, Bishop RP: Social network analysis provides insights into African swine fever epidemiology. Prev Vet Med 2016, 126:1-10.

  • 11. Kukielka EA, Jori F, Martinez-Lorez B, Chenais E, Masembe C, Chavernac D, Ståhl K: Wild and Domestic Pig Interactions at the Wildufe-Livestock Interface of Murchison Falls National Park, Uganda, and the Potential Association with African Swine Fever Qutbreaks. Front Vet Sci 2016, 3:31.

  • 12. Sternberg-Lewerin S, Chenais E, Booqvist S, Liu L, LeBlanc N, Aliro T, Masembe C, Ståhl K: African swine fever outbreak on a medium-sized farm in Uganda: biosecurity Breaches and within-farm virus contamination. Trop Anim Health Prod 2017, 49(2):337-346.

  • 13. Iglesias I, Munoz MJ, Motes F, Perez A, Gogin A, Kolbasov D, de la Torre A.: Reproductive ratio for the local spread of African swine fever in wild boars in the Russian Federation. Transbound Emerg Dis 2016, 63(6):237–245.

  • 14. Korennoy FI, Gulenkin VM, Malone JB, Mores CN, Dudnikov SA, Stevenson MA.: Spatio-temporal modeling of the African swine fever epidemic in the Russian Federation, 2007–2012. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2014, 11:135–141.

  • 15. Mur L, Sanchez-Vizcano JM, Fernandez-Carrion E, Jurado C, Rolesu S, Feliziani F, Laddomada A, Martínez-López B: Understanding African Swine Fever infection dynamics in Sardinia using a spatially explicit transmission model in domestic pig farms. Transbound Emerg Dis 2018, 65 (1):123-134.

  • 16. Nielsen JP, Larsen TS, Halasa T, Christiansen LE: Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house. Epidemiol Infect 2017, 145 (13):2787-2796.

  • 17. Kulldorff M, Heffernan R, Hartman J, Assuncao RM, Mostashari FA: Space-time permutation scan statistic for the early detection of disease outbreaks. PLoS Med. 2005, 2:216–224.

  • 18. Abdrakhmanov SK, Tyulegenov SB, Korennoy FI, Sultanov AA, Sytnik II, Beisembaev KK, Bainiyazov AA, Munsey AE, Perez AM, VanderWaal K: Spatiotemporal analysis of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 1955-2013. Transbound Emerg Dis 2018, 00:1-11.

  • 19. Khomenko S, Beltrán-Alcrudo D, Rozstalnyy A, Gogin A, Kolbasov D, Pinto J, Lubroth J, Martin V.: African Swine Fever in the Russian Federation: Risk Factors for Europe and Beyond. EMPRES Watch. FAO, Rome 2013. [http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/aq240e/aq240e.pdf]

  • 20. Malkhazova SM, Korennoy FI, Petrova ON, Gulenkin VM, Karaulov AK: Spatial-temporal analysis of the local distribution of African swine fever in the Russian Federation in 2007-2015. MosUniver Bullet. Series 5, Geography 2017, 5:33-40.

  • 21. Vergne T, Gogin A, Pfeiffer DU.: Statistical Exploration of Local Transmission Routes for African Swine Fever in Pigs in the Russian Federation, 2007–2014. Transbound Emerg Dis 2017, 64(2):504–512.

OPEN ACCESS

Journal + Issues

Search