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Modeling the Diffusion of Private Pension Provision

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is threefold: to adapt the innovation diffusion models to describe and predict the diffusion of private pension provision; to evaluate the suitability of diffusion models based on the historical data from the Romanian and Ukrainian voluntary pension systems; and to compare the diffusion parameters of private pension provision in these countries. The study proven that diffusion models, such as the Rogers model and the Bass model, can reproduce the diffusion of innovations in the field of pensions. The Rogers diffusion parameters for Romania and Ukraine are almost identical; this gives grounds for a conclusion about the similar behavioral patterns in post-socialist countries. However, some limitations on models use are noted. During the crisis and when using the nudge mechanism, models are not always well-fitting, but when new pension schemes are introduced or new pension funds are opened, models can be used in “guessing by analogy”.

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Factors Affecting the Development of Voluntary Pension Schemes in CEE Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

many countries, the voluntary pension system was further developed: some new types of pension plans were introduced and the scope of financial incentives for supplementary savings was broadened. Tab. 1 Private funded pension schemes in CEE countries Mandatory private occupational Mandatory private personal Voluntary private personal Voluntary private occupational Contributions Country Employee Employer Employee Employer Employee Employer Member Employer Bulgaria

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