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Trade Facilitation Indicators and their Potential Impact on Trade Between the Countries of South-Eastern Europe

Abstract

In this paper we base our analysis on previous OECD findings and analysis of trade facilitation indicators for assessing relative economic and trade impact of specific trade facilitation measures for the countries of South-Eastern Europe. In the analysis we plan to include all CEFTA-2006 members, except Moldova, and other countries which are part of this region: Bulgaria, Romania and Greece. We plan to construct twelve trade facilitation indicators (TFIs) that correspond to the main policy areas under negotiations at the WTO. The indicators are composed from seventy-eight variables, whose values are drawn from publicly available data. We plan to use these indicators in gravity model in order to estimate the impact of those policy areas on trade volumes between the countries of the region. The use of individual trade facilitation indicators should also enable countries to better assess which trade facilitation measures deserve priority.

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Of Iron or Wax? The Effect of Economic Integration on the Reliability of Military Alliances

Abstract

In this paper we analyze what determines if a military alliance represents a credible commitment. More precisely, we verify if economic integration of military allies increases the deterrent capability of an alliance, and its effectiveness in the case of third-party aggression. We propose that growing intra-alliance trade creates audience costs and sunk costs for political leaders who venture to violate conditions of an alliance treaty. Therefore, intensive trade can be regarded as a signal of allies’ determination to aid one another in the case of third party aggression, and a deterrent of such aggression. Regression analysis of bilateral fixed-term mutual defense agreements concluded between 1945 and 2003 reveals that large trade volumes among military allies indeed reduce the likelihood that their political leaders will breach alliance commitments. Intra-alliance trade also displays a number of interesting interaction effects with the other common predictors of military alliance reliability such as shared allies’ interests and values, symmetry of their military capabilities, their geographic location and domestic political institutions.

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How to Measure Illiquidity on European Emerging Stock Markets?

Abstract

Background: Liquidity is, in practice of portfolio investment, an important attribute of stocks and measuring illiquidity presents a real challenge for researchers, primarily on developed stock markets. Moreover, there is a lack of research dealing with (il)liquidity on emerging markets. In the paper, the problem of applicability and validity of two well-known illiquidity measures, ILLIQ and TURN, on European emerging markets is observed. Objectives: The paper has two main purposes. The first is to test the relative performance of the two selected illiquidity measures in terms of their validity on European emerging stock markets. The second is to propose a new and improved illiquidity measure named Relative Change in Volume (RCV).

Methods/Approach: Using daily returns and traded volumes for 12 stocks which are constituents of stock indices on seven observed markets, ILLIQ and TURN along with the new proposed measure are calculated and tested based on correlation with return. All measures are tested and proposed using the single stock approach.

Results: It is shown that ILLIQ and TURN are not appropriate for seven observed markets. The measures do not follow the obligatory request that returns increase in illiquidity while RCV has the ability of taking into account the pressure of big differences in volume on return. RCV gives satisfactory results, making clear the distinction between liquid and illiquid stocks and between liquid and illiquid markets.

Conclusions: The proposed measure potentially has important implications in illiquidity measurement in general, and not only for investors on emerging stock markets.

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Trade Credit Insurance and Asymmetric Information Problem

Abstract

The presence of different risk factors in international trade gives evidence of the necessity of support in gaps that may affect exporters’ activity. To maximize the trade volumes and in the same time to minimize the exporters’ risks the stakeholders use trade credit insurance. The paper provides analysis of conceptual background of the trade credit insurance in the world. We analyzed briefly the problems, arising in insurance markets due to asymmetric information, such as adverse selection and moral hazard. Also we discuss the main stages of development of trade credit insurance in countries worldwide. Using comparative and graphical analysis we provide a brief evaluation of the dynamics of claims and recoveries for different forms of trade credit insurance. We found that the claims related to the commercial risk for medium and long trade credits in recent years exceed the recoveries, while with the political risk the reverse trend holds. And we originally consider these findings in terms of information asymmetry in the trade credit insurance differentiated by type of risk.

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Trade Credit Insurance and Asymmetric Information Problem

Abstract

The presence of different risk factors in international trade gives evidence of the necessity of support in gaps that may affect exporters’ activity. To maximize the trade volumes and in the same time to minimize the exporters’ risks the stakeholders use trade credit insurance. The paper provides analysis of conceptual background of the trade credit insurance in the world. We analyzed briefly the problems, arising in insurance markets due to asymmetric information, such as adverse selection and moral hazard. Also we discuss the main stages of development of trade credit insurance in countries worldwide. Using comparative and graphical analysis we provide a brief evaluation of the dynamics of claims and recoveries for different forms of trade credit insurance. We found that the claims related to the commercial risk for medium and long trade credits in recent years exceed the recoveries, while with the political risk the reverse trend holds. And we originally consider these findings in terms of information asymmetry in the trade credit insurance differentiated by type of risk.

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Is a regional trading bloc forming in southeast Asia? New evidence for ASEAN countries

References Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). Available from: <http://www.usasean.org/ASEAN/afta.php>. Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Available from: <http://www.aseansec.org>. Cieślik, A 2009, ‘Bilateral trade volumes, the gravity equation and factor proportions’, Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 37-59. Cieślik, A & Hagemejer, J 2009, ‘Assessing the impact of the EU-sponsored trade liberalization in the

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Export Margins, Price and Quantity of Belarus’s Export Growth

working papers, no.1276, (pp.1-46). HELPMAN, E., MELITZ, M., & RUBINSTEIN, Y. (2008). Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(2), 441-487. http://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2008.123.2.441 HUMMELS, D., & KLENOW, P. J. (2005). The Variety and Quality of a Nation’s Exports. American Economic Review, 95(3), 704-723. KEHOE, T. J., & RUHL, K. J. (2003). How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade ? Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department

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Total Factor Productivity and Most Favored Nations Tariffs: Evidence from Croatia

(1998). Trade reorientation and post-reform productivity growth in bulgarian enterprises. The Journal of Policy Reform 2(2), 151-168. Dovis, M. and J. Milgram-Baleix (2009). Trade, tariffs and total factor productivity: the case of spanish firms. The World Economy 32(4), 575- 605. Fernandes, A. M. (2007). Trade policy, trade volumes and plant-level productivity in colombian manufacturing industries. Journal of international economics 71(1), 52-71. for Economic, E. C. D.-G. (2002). Progress towards Meeting Economic

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The Analysis of Firms’ Involvement in Internationalisation And Determinants of its Intensity – An Analysis For Developing and Post-Transition Economies

-154. Heckman, J. J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47, 153-161. Hagemejer J. (2015). Productivity spillovers in the GVC. The case of Poland and the New EU Member States (WNE Working Paper No. 42(2015)/190). University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences. Helpman, E., Melitz, M., & Rubinstein, Y. (2008). Estimating trade flows: trading partners and trading volumes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(2), 441-487. Helpman E., Melitz M. J., Yeaple S. R., (2004). Exports versus FDI

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A Perspective on Industry Classification and Market Reaction to Corporate News: Evidence from India

., 2004. Are economically significant stock returns and trading volumes driven by firm-specific news releases? Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 31 (1-2), 49-82. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2004.0002.x Schmitz, P., 2007. Market and individual Investors reactions to corporate news in the media. University of Mannheim Working Paper . https://ssrn.com/abstract=1004488 . doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1004488 Sprenger, T. O., and Welpe, I. M., 2011. News or noise? The stock market reaction to different types of company

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