The paper analyses the influence of oil price volatility on Exchange Rate Variability, External Reserves, Government Expenditure and real Gross Domestic Product using the methodology of Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) to carry out regression analysis, impulse response function and factor error variance decomposition for robust policy recommendations. The results of the research show that unstable oil price exerts varying degrees of deleterious effect on exchange rate variability, external reserves, Government expenditure and real gross domestic product (GDP). Based on the findings of the study, we recommend the need for the country to branch out its revenue sources. This will further shield the dangle effect of the fluctuation in prices of oil. Serious policy attention should be attached to agricultural reformation, industrial policy drives, mines and mineral development to diversify Nigeria’s economy following the downward slide in the oscillations in oil prices to address the problem of excessive dependence on crude oil exportation. This will help to achieve sustainable growth and development in Nigeria.
Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000), this paper shows that real depreciation of the euro raises real GDP in Kosovo and that a lower real lending rate in the euro area, a higher real GDP in Germany, a lower real oil price, or a lower expected inflation rate would help increase real GDP. More government deficit spending as a percent of GDP does not affect real GDP.
Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Vol. 74, 427-431. The Institute of Economics, Zagreb. (2014). RealGDP & Unemployment. Retrieved December, 5, 2014, from http://www.eizg.hr/en-US/Real-GDP-amp;-Unemployment-592.aspx
Erjavec, N., Cota, B., & Jakšić, S. (2012). Sign restriction approach to macro stress-testing of the Croatian banking system. Financial theory and practice. 36(4), 395-412, http://dx.doi.org/10.3326/fintp.36.4.4, Retrieved November, 21, 2014, from http://fintp.ijf.hr/upload/files/ftp/2012
The effect of oil price volatility on the business cycle (measured as fluctuations in real GDP) in Nigeria is investigated, while controlling for effects of other variables such as inflation, exchange rate, money supply, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Volatility in real GDP and oil price is generated through the EGARCH process. The ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction modeling is employed for analysis of data covering the period from 1970 to 2015. The study finds positive and significant short-run effect of oil price volatility on real GDP volatility, and no significant long-run effect. The short-run and long-run effects of other variables on business cycle (real GDP volatility) in Nigeria are not statistically significant. This suggests that short-run fluctuations in real GDP are engendered mainly by oil price volatility. This could be attributed to the precarious dependence of the country on oil export. The paper recommends channeling of efforts by the government towards diversifying the productive base and exports of the country as measure to reduce volatility in the real GDP.
This study has investigated the relationship between government spending and inclusive growth in Nigeria over the period 1995 to 2014. Specifically, it examined how, and to what extent, government spending on education, government spending on health, economic freedom, public resource use, and real GDP growth rate have impacted on inclusive growth in the country. It used the Dickey-Fuller GLS unit root test to ascertain the order of integration of the series. Consequently, through the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing technique, the study found that in the long-run government spending on health, economic freedom, public resource use and real GDP growth rate had significantly positive influence on inclusive growth. In the short-run, however, only real GDP impacted significantly on inclusive growth while other variables were not significant in causing inclusive growth. Thus, in conclusion, government spending in the form of redistributive spending on health propelled inclusive growth in Nigeria.
The author studies the private equity divestments in Eastern Europe and tests a long-term relation between these divestments and the real GDP variation. This research paper focuses on a sample covering the period 2000-2013 which considers the dynamics of the private equity divestments during the last financial crisis. The empirical analysis follows the methodology developed by Granger (1969), Toda and Yamamoto (1995), Dufour and Renault (1998), Konya (2004), Foresti (2006) and Onuoha, Okonkwo, Okoro, Kingsley (2018). The analysis shows that Eastern European private equity divestment market is still emerging characterized by high volatilities. The results prove that GDP recession explains in at certain degree the evolution of private equity divestments during the crisis. However, the Granger causality test shows that the information provided by the past variation of the real GDP cannot allow us to predict the short-term movements of private equity divestments in Eastern Europe.
In this research, the impact of total early-stage entrepreneurial activity and competitiveness of the economy on the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is analyzed in a cross-section of world economies using the methods of correlation and multiple regression analysis. In the attempt to select between the linear and the double-logarithmic model, the regression diagnostics and quality of the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables were analyzed. The functional form of the model was tested by the MacKinnon, White and Davidson test. Model selection methods regarding the comparison of coefficients of determination and the Akaike information criterion were used. The results of the analysis show that independent variables have a statistically significant impact on the real GDP per capita, and that the real GDP per capita is elastic to the changes of competitiveness but inelastic to the changes of total early-stage entrepreneurial activity.
Employing an extended IS-MP-AS model to study the effects of the exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables in Montenegro, the paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro, a lower government spending-to-GDP ratio, a lower real lending rate in the Euro area, a lower lagged real oil price, a higher lagged real GDP in Germany, and a lower expected inflation rate would promote economic growth.
Many scholars have examined the importance of the money supply to the macroeconomics in developed countries. However, few studies have explored this proposition in developing countries. So, in this paper, annual series data from 2000 to 2016 is applied to analyze the relationship between the money supply (M2) and the macroeconomic variables (the real GDP, the inflation rate & the interest rate) under the vector auto regression (VAR) model in China. The purpose of this paper is to verify the impact of these variables on the money supply in China. After performing an empirical analysis, conclusions can be obtained that an increase in the real GDP can result in an increase in the money supply; Also, an increase in the inflation rate can lead to an increase in the money supply; Conversely, an increase in the interest rate can cause a decrease in the money supply. Therefore, via adjusting the change of real GDP, inflation rate and interest rate, a better control of the money supply can be performed for the policy-makers in China.
Determinants of Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: The Case of Bulgaria
The paper illuminates the non-linear effects of the government budget on short-run economic activity. The study shows that in the Bulgarian economy under a Currency Board Arrangement the tax policy impacts the real growth in the standard Keynesian manner. On the other hand, the expenditure policy exhibits non-Keynesian behavior on the short-run output: cuts in government spending accelerate the real GDP growth. The main determinant of this outcome is the size of the discretionary budgetary changes. The results imply that the balanced budget rule improves the sustainability of public finances without assuring a growth-enhancing effect.