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Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify whether there is a common house price trend across provincial capitals in Poland. The log t regression is the main method of analysis. Additionally, traditional convergence tests based on the concepts of β- and σ-convergence are used. The obtained results indicate that the cities do not share a common price in the long-run. There are, however, convergence clubs on both primary and secondary markets. In each club, house prices across cities tend to converge to their own steady state. Moreover, research on the driving forces of convergence reports that factors affecting housing prices differ among the clubs. Therefore, policymakers should adjust housing policies in accordance with the characteristics of a given club. In turn, the σ-convergence model demonstrated a very interesting finding, namely, a U-shape pattern of convergence, both on the primary and secondary markets. This pattern is strictly correlated with the level of prices on the markets.

Abstract

The paper presents the results of a comparison of the development of mean offer and transaction prices per 1m2 in primary and secondary residential real estate markets in 16 provincial capital cities in Poland, during the time period from the 3rd quarter of 2006 to the 3rd quarter of 2012. The quarterly data came from the residential real estate price database of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The research concerns the dependencies in the residential real estate market between the following four price categories: offer prices in the primary market, transaction prices in the primary market, offer prices in the secondary market and transaction prices in the secondary market. For each city, the dynamics of each price category per 1m2, the existence of a linear correlation between the individual mean price categories in chosen subintervals and their convergence and variability in time were studied and compared.

(1), 353-370. https://doi.org/10.29310/wp Tomal, M., 2019, House price convergence on the primary and secondary markets: Evidence from Polish provincial capitals. Real Estate Management and Valuation , no. 27 (4), 62-73. https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2019-0036 Schwarz, G.E., 1978, Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics , no. 6 (2), 461-464. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176344136 Lütkepohl, H., Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Vector Autoregressive Models. The Review of

Abstract

The average price of residential real estate offered on the housing market in Szczecin has been declining since 2008. Prices on both the primary and secondary markets were regularly adjusted, disregarding the fact that the cost of 1 square meter of newly built flats was rising. Therefore, the question of how low can prices fall for the market to remain profitable arises? The situation on the residential real estate market has been analyzed in four areas: on the primary and secondary market, as well as by offer and transaction prices. The study was conducted in Szczecin on a quarterly basis in the period of 2007-2012.

Abstract

Research purpose. Housing availability indicator shows the area of residential real estate possible to purchase for the average monthly wage in the enterprise sector. The research carried out in this paper is aimed at determining the current level of housing availability indicator and its detailed analysis, taking into account the dynamics of changes in 2006 to 2018. This analysis will be carried out for primary and secondary market for selected Polish cities.

Design/Methodology/Approach. Calculations were based on the average transaction prices obtained from the transactional database of residential real estate of the National Bank of Poland and the value of the average monthly remuneration in the enterprise sector obtained partly from statistical data and official journals of the Central Statistical Office.

Findings. The analysis shows that the indicator of housing availability in Poland, despite the visible upward trend, is at a very low level, placing Warsaw at the first place. In addition, the extension of the analysis to the division of the housing market into the primary and secondary market provided more information about shaping the housing availability indicator. Whereas in the primary market in individual cities its value was at a similar level, the secondary market was subject to greater fluctuations.

Originality/Value/Practical implications. This paper is of practical nature. Due to the asymmetry of information on the Polish real estate market, especially regarding housing prices, knowledge about the value of the housing availability indicator in Poland may be exceptionally valuable, especially for people interested in the housing market, including individual investors and market practitioners, as an auxiliary source of information in purchasing decisions of households.

Abstract

The paper presents the results of research aimed at assessing the geographic diversification of the income affordability of flats on both the primary and secondary markets in Poland in the years 2012 - 2016. It analyzes the differences in the income affordability of flats: 1) in voivodeship cities, 2) between voivodeship cities, 3) between voivodeship capitals and other major cities located in counties in the voivodeship. Measures of differentiation and the Shapiro-Wilk, Fisher-Snedecor and t-Student tests were used. The source of the data used to conduct the study was the AMRON system. The results of the study indicate that: 1) changes in the income affordability of flats in voivodeship cities were small during the analyzed period, 2) the average diversification in voivodeship cities in terms of the income affordability of flats was small, however the differences in the extreme values of housing affordability indicators were high, 3) the maximum differences in the income affordability of flats between counties in the same voivodeship were high, 4) in a majority of voivodeships (11 out of 16), the income affordability of flats in a voivodeship city was lower (not always statistically significantly) than in the remaining counties of the voivodeship.

., 2013, Konwergencja gospodarcza w Polsce i jej znaczenie w osiąganiu celów polityki spójności (Economic convergence in Poland and its importance in achieving the objectives of cohesion policy) , Wyd. Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź. L ee C., M ei -S e C., 2011, Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect , Urban Studies 48, no. 10, pp. 2029-047. L eszczyński R., O lszewski K., 2014, Panel analysis of home prices in the primary and secondary market in 17 largest cities in Poland , MPRA Paper No. 59017. L evin A., L in C. C hu C., 2002

synthetic measurement. Statistics Poland] Strobel, J., Nguyen Thanh, B., & Lee, G. (2018). Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Labor Demand Shocks on the Housing Market. Real Estate Economics . https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12232 Taipalus, K. (2006). A Global House Price Bubble? Evaluation Based on a New Rent-Price Approach. Bank of Finland Discussion Papers. Helsinki. Finland. No. 29. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1018329 Tomal, M. (2019). House Price Convergence on the Primary and Secondary Markets: Evidence from Polish Provincial Capitals. Real Estate

-term liquidity help to avoid a credit crunch? Evidence from the Eurosystem's LTROs. Banque de France 31. Beirne, J., Dalitz, L., Ejsing, J., Grothe, M., Manganelli, S., Monar, F., Sahel, B., Sušec, M., Tapking, J., Vong, T. (2011). The Impact of the Eurosystem's Covered Bod Purchase Program on the Primary and Secondary Markets. ECB Occasional Paper Series No 122. 32. Berger, A. N., Black, L. K., Bouwman, C. H., & Dlugosz, J. (2017). Bank loan supply responses to Federal Reserve emergency liquidity facilities. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 1-15. 33. Berger, A. N., Makaew