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Abstract

The paper presents the results of a comparison of the development of mean offer and transaction prices per 1m2 in primary and secondary residential real estate markets in 16 provincial capital cities in Poland, during the time period from the 3rd quarter of 2006 to the 3rd quarter of 2012. The quarterly data came from the residential real estate price database of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The research concerns the dependencies in the residential real estate market between the following four price categories: offer prices in the primary market, transaction prices in the primary market, offer prices in the secondary market and transaction prices in the secondary market. For each city, the dynamics of each price category per 1m2, the existence of a linear correlation between the individual mean price categories in chosen subintervals and their convergence and variability in time were studied and compared.

Abstract

The average price of residential real estate offered on the housing market in Szczecin has been declining since 2008. Prices on both the primary and secondary markets were regularly adjusted, disregarding the fact that the cost of 1 square meter of newly built flats was rising. Therefore, the question of how low can prices fall for the market to remain profitable arises? The situation on the residential real estate market has been analyzed in four areas: on the primary and secondary market, as well as by offer and transaction prices. The study was conducted in Szczecin on a quarterly basis in the period of 2007-2012.

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References BOKHARI S., GELTNER D. 2010. Estimating Real Estate Price Movements for High Frequency Tradable Indexes in a Scarce Data Environment. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. Vol. 45, Issue 2. CLAPP J.M., GIACOTTO C.: Estimating Price Indices for Residential Property: A Comparison of Repeat Sales and Assessed Value Methods. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Vol. 87. DITTMANN I. 2013. Primary and secondary residential real estate markets in poland - analogies in offer and transaction price development, Real Estate Management and

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