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The development of information and communication technologies (ICTs) has significant economic and social impacts at both the global and regional level. Some of these implications have been perceived as positive and unexpected. While both the positive and negative social and economic impacts have been highlighted in the literature, opinions on these impacts remain ambiguous. Those aspects considered to be advantageous include faster communication, ease of use, development in the range of services and revenues, and an increase in individuals’ free time allowance. ICT penetrates all branches of the economy as a set of general purpose technologies. New information and communication technologies ease everyday life, serve as tools to help people in extreme situations, e.g. accidents, illnesses or natural disasters, and are also the pillars of contemporary entertainment media. The usefulness of ICT has been stressed and loudly disseminated to a large extent by the media. On the other hand, these new technologies sensitize society in quite new ways to the well-known natural hazards that people have encountered in the past.
The Albanian part of the Lake Ohrid area is endangered by several natural hazards like: floods, landslides, rock falls, erosion and wild fires. Those events have caused environmental, social and economical damages, so it’s important to study the factors that had caused them, their costs and the measures that should be taken to prevent, or to reduce their impact. Most of those events have been triggered by climate change, increasing of human pressure on land and unplanned urban development. Rapid urbanization of latest years has imposed people to build their homes or other activities on unsafe places. Climate change is another factor that has influenced in floods and droughts. The presence of the mountainous relief in the Western part combined with damage of vegetation cover, plays an important role in generating landslides and erosion of land. Natural hazards map of this area, created with GIS, shows where are distributed and which are the zones that can be caught by one of those events. Through this map the habitants of this area and local authorities, will know the risks and take necessary measures to prevent those events. Objectives of this study are to determine the risked areas and measures to minimize damages in life losing, economy and environment.
Improving prediction models applied in systems monitoring natural hazards and machinery
A method of combining three analytic techniques including regression rule induction, the k-nearest neighbors method and time series forecasting by means of the ARIMA methodology is presented. A decrease in the forecasting error while solving problems that concern natural hazards and machinery monitoring in coal mines was the main objective of the combined application of these techniques. The M5 algorithm was applied as a basic method of developing prediction models. In spite of an intensive development of regression rule induction algorithms and fuzzy-neural systems, the M5 algorithm is still characterized by the generalization ability and unbeatable time of data model creation competitive with other systems. In the paper, two solutions designed to decrease the mean square error of the obtained rules are presented. One consists in introducing into a set of conditional variables the so-called meta-variable (an analogy to constructive induction) whose values are determined by an autoregressive or the ARIMA model. The other shows that limitation of a data set on which the M5 algorithm operates by the k-nearest neighbor method can also lead to error decreasing. Moreover, three application examples of the presented solutions for data collected by systems of natural hazards and machinery monitoring in coal mines are described. In Appendix, results of several benchmark data sets analyses are given as a supplement of the presented results.
Hard coal mines and mining enterprises involved in hard coal exploitation in the area of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (Górnośląskie Zagłębie Węglowe) are characterised by the presence of natural hazards typical of this type of exploitation. These hazards include the risks related to methane, coal dust explosion, endogenous fires, as well as rock burst and caving of roof rocks. The article presents the results of a taxonomic analysis aimed at determining the similarity of hard coal mines and mining enterprises in Poland in terms of the dangerous incidents caused by the risks related to methane, coal dust explosion, endogenous fires, as well as rock burst and caving of roof rocks. The analysis was carried out for the 2008-2018 data and encompassed a total of 26 hard coal mines and mining enterprises located in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. The analysis was performed using the k-means method of non-hierarchical clustering. The main objective of the article was to determine homogenous groups (clusters) of mines exhibiting the greatest similarity in terms of dangerous incidents caused by the activation of natural hazards in the years 2008-2018. These data can be successfully used for the development of preventive measures and risk analyses for these enterprises.
, e.g. Birkmann 2006b ). In risk and hazard research the vulnerability approach was introduced mainly by Blaikie/Cannon/Davis et al. (1994) . They define vulnerability in the context of naturalhazards: "By 'vulnerability' we mean the characteristics of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a naturalhazard (an extreme natural event or process)" ( Blaikie/Cannon/Davis et al. 1994 : 9). Within natural risk and hazard research this generated much interest for social
Bruno Martins, Luciano Lourenço and Sílvia Monteiro
São Vicente island (República de Cabo Verde) lies within the Sahelian zone and faces a number of natural hazards, of which the most significant ones are erosion and gully formation, desertification and flash flooding hazards. Based on examples, we set out to examine the main factors involved in the development of these natural hazards from a regional point of view, while simultaneously assessing the importance of anthropic action as a structural factor. The investigation of Lazareto’s gullies (located to the west of Mindelo) aimed to determine the main factors of the gullies formation. It also sought to demonstrate that the gullies’ formation is a reliable indicator of the high rates of erosion on a regional scale. The approach to the desertification hazards was based on farmers’ perception related to the evolution of agricultural production, strategies to mitigate drought and desertification issues, consequences and future prospects based on a set of interviews conducted in Ribeira da Vinha. Finally, the intense rainfall event that occurred on August 26, 2008 was analysed to identify the main vulnerability factors of the city in light of the flash flood hazard.
Migration behaviour of the Inhabitants of Meghna Estuarine region has been affected by several social, economic and natural causes. This migration has been thought as a part of social behaviour in this region. It has been predicted in several international researches that, human migration is going to be the worst possible effect triggered by the changing climatic scenario (IPCC, 2007). Natural hazards are also very much responsible for human migration. Purpose of this research is to find out the pattern and factors of natural hazards induced outmigration in Meghna Estuarine Islands of Bangladesh. In this empirical research, primary data has been collected through threestage socioeconomic survey. From this research it has been seen that, natural hazards like river bank erosion, saline tide, flood, cyclone, storms cause extreme havoc to the life and livelihood of the inhabitants of Meghna Estuary islands. Many of these situations force inhabitants to migrate temporarily or permanently. Indirectly these hazards also affects migration behaviours by affecting natural resources and income sources of inhabitants of this region. Natural hazards have two types of effect on migration behaviour; one is forcing rapid migration by riverbank erosion, cyclone etc. and the other is making situations for slow migration decision by disturbing the regular economic, social and environmental system. Two types of outmigrations are prominent in these islands; permanent household migration and partial migration – and these migration behaviours have been influenced by natural hazards of these study areas.
Ostseeraum mit einem Schwerpunkt auf Fragen der Raumentwicklung. Dafür wurden bereits existierende Anpassungsstrategien zusammengestellt und – ähnlich wie in ESPACE – ein Strategiepapier mit politischen Leitlinien und Empfehlungen erarbeitet, wobei insbesondere die Notwendigkeit integrierter Ansätze („holistic approach“) und der Kombination von top-down- und bottom-up-Ansätzen herausgestellt wurde (vgl. Hilpert et al. 2007 ).
Ansatzpunkt des ebenfalls abgeschlossenen Vorhabens AR MONIA – Applied Multi Risk Mapping of NaturalHazards for Impact Assessment (2004