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Is Inflation Rate of Turkey Stationary? Evidence from Unit Root Tests with and Without Structural Breaks

REFERENCES 1. Akyüz, Yılmaz and Korkut Boratav (2003), “The Making of the Turkish Financial Crisis”, World Development, Vol. 31, No. 9, pp.1549-1566. 2. Basher, Syed A. and Joakim Westerlund (2008), “Is There Really a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? More Evidence from Panel Data Models”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp.161-164. 3. Bhargava, Alok (1986), “On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp.369-384. 4. Boratav, Korkut, A. Erinc Yeldan and Ahmet H

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An Assessment of the Nexus Between Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria

Insurance Company annual digest. Odusola, A.F., Akinlo, A.E. (2001). Output, Inflation and Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: An Application to Nigeria. The Developing Economies , June. Ogbole, O.F., Momodu, A.A. (2015). Government Expenditure and Inflation Rate in Nigeria: An Empirical Analyses of Pairwise Causal Relationship. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting , 6 (15). Ogbonna, B.C. (2014). Inflation dynamics and Government size in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management , 2 (12), 1–22. Olayungbo

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Does the Credible Fiscal Policy Support the Prices Stabilization?

Abstract

This paper aims at analyzing the co-movement between fiscal policy and monetary policy rules in the context of price stabilization. More specifically, we observe the potential impact of fiscal policy credibility on the price stabilization in the inflation targeting framework. Motivated by the fact that empirical studies concerning this aspect are still limited, we take the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-2013. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we found that the impact of credibility typically depends on characteristics of fiscal rules commitment. On one hand, the credibility of debt rule reduces the inflation rate. In contrast, the incredible deficit rule policy does not have any impact on the inflation rate and therefore does not support to inflation targeting. Given those results, we conclude that credibility matters in stabilizing price levels. Accordingly, those findings suggest tightening coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to maintain fiscal sustainability in accordance with price stabilization policy

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The Influence of the Macroeconomical Variables on the Bankruptcy Rate of the Romanian Entities Working in the Agricultural Sector

Abstract

The study’s main objective is represented by the analysis of the reasons that lead to the appearance of an agricultural companies’ default risk, based on the failure rate model developed by Wilson. In the construction of the regression model were taken into consideration the evolution of the two macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate and the variation of the exchange rate over a period of 4 years (2010-2013). The research’ results have shown that the variation of the bankruptcy rate registered by the agricultural sector is 99.99% explained by the variation of both of the macroeconomic explanatory variables.

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An Empirical Evaluation of Exchange Rates Changes: Economic Implications in Oil-Exporting Countries

Summary

Subject and purpose of work: This paper examines empirical implications of exchange rates in the economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). In particular, it aims to identify and evaluate potential macroeconomic signs and symptoms of economic disturbance so as to determine macroeconomic variables that influence spot exchange rate (1GBP = SAR), and to examine how fixed exchange rate regime influences exports and imports in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Materials and methods: Multiple regression and simple linear regression models were used to analyze the data from 1975 to 2018.

Results: The study found a weak and insignificant relationship between spot exchange rate and unemployment rate, inflation rate, exports, and economic growth, along with strong relations with imports, investment, and current account variation in the KSA.

Conclusions: The study recommends the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime in the KSA. It has revealed the signs and symptoms of increases of the inflation rate with decreasing exports, increasing imports, decreasing of current account (current account deficit threat), and small increases of investment.

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Relevance of Low Inflation in the Southeastern European Countries

Abstract

The paper starts from the assumption that the significant reduction of the inflation problem is a result of the long-term dynamics of economic growth in countries with developing markets and, as a result, operational inability of multinational companies to increase accumulation through the policy of raising prices by creating space for their full expansion. We believe that in such circumstances civil theories on the causes of inflation are dominantly of class character. We check negative repercussions of low inflation on the examples of the countries of South-East Europe, in the regimes with fixed and flexible exchange rates, and with different strategies of monetary policy. We conclude that destructive implications of the financial crisis and psychological factors have a negative impact on a sustainable low-inflation environment, regardless of the monetary-exchange regime. We propose that low and stable inflation rates can be followed by a series of negative implications for the overall economic system, which our analysis of the observed countries proves.

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External Debt Financing and Public Capital Investment in Nigeria: A Critical Evaluation

Abstract

This study considers the consequences of external loan on capital investment in Nigeria. Data for the study have been collected from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2018 edition. The variables on which data are sourced include government capital expenditure, external debt accumulation, debt servicing cost, inflation rate, and exchange rate. Government capital expenditure is the dependent variable, while external debt accumulation and debt servicing cost are the key independent variables. Inflation and exchange rates are used as the moderating variables. The scope of the study covers the period from 1996 to 2018 and the data are analysed using the ordinary least squares multiple regression method. The regression results indicate that external debt has a significant negative impact on capital investment while debt servicing cost has a strong and significant positive effect on capital investment. Under this circumstance, the controlling variables are not significant in influencing capital investment. Hence, the study suggests more focus on profitable capital investments if external borrowing must be embarked upon. The need for the development of untapped natural resources, establishment of industries and revival of abandoned industries to boost debt repayment has been emphasized. The study also strongly recommends that the existing governments (state and federal) should endeavour to complete capital projects of past administrations in order to drive the economy and to avoid wastage of financial resources including the borrowed funds.

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Determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria

Abstract

In this paper we examined the determinants of food price volatility in Nigeria using monthly data from January, 1997 to April, 2017. We employed the multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. In particular, the Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK) model and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model were used for estimation. The findings showed that information shocks originating in Consumer Price Indices (CPI), lending rate, exchange rate and oil market have a direct effect on the current conditional volatility in food market while the information shocks originating in food have a direct effect on the current conditional volatility in all the markets considered except for oil. These results were insensitive to changes in data frequency and different oil price specification. Hence, the government should encourage the use of alternative sources of energy to reduce the effect of high oil prices on food prices and provide soft agricultural credit scheme to farmers with a low lending rate through specialized banks.

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Effect of Corruption on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of corruption on foreign direct investment inflows in Nigeria, by using some control variables. The study covers a period from 1996 to 2017 and employs Ordinary Least Squares method to perform the multiple regression analysis with the aid of SPSS version 20. The findings indicate that corruption has a significant positive influence on FDI. Though the influence of inflation is significantly negative but exchange rate and Nigeria’s corruption ranking position have insignificant positive impact on FDI. The implication is that the poor legal framework and institutional qualities in Nigeria are helping corruption to thrive in all areas of Nigeria’s economy and might ruin the young generation if nothing is done urgently. The study finds support for helping hand theory of corruption and FDI and also establishes that inflation has a significant negative influence on FDI inflows in the country. Therefore, the study recommends establishment of strong institutional and legal system to curtail the prevailing situation in order to save the future of the country.

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Inflation Differentials across Regions in Turkey

.http://www.iie.com/publications/wp/01-1.pdf, (accessed 12th September, 2015) Rogers, J. 2007. Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: how close is Europe to the USA?. Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (3): 785-796. Samuelson, P. A. 1964. Theoretical notes on trade problems. Review of Economics and Statistics 46 (2): 145-154. Schwarz, G. 1978. Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics 6 (2): 461-464. Siklos, P. L. and Wohar, M. E. 1997. Convergence in interest rates and inflation rates across countries and

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