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An Attempt to Evaluate the Economy of Upper Silesia by Ownership Sectors Based on the Econometric Model and the Final Equation

An Attempt to Evaluate the Economy of Upper Silesia by Ownership Sectors Based on the Econometric Model and the Final Equation

The paper attempts to use the econometric model in the evaluation of trends in the economy of the Śląskie Voivodeship. The analysis is mainly based on the final equation of the model. The characteristic roots indicate that the economy of Upper Silesia does not have a cyclical nature (the lack of complex roots) and the private enterprise sector is characterised with higher efficiency than the public enterprise sector, since the curve for endogenous variable yt is converging with the asymptote y = 0 more quickly in the case of public enterprises than in the case of private enterprise sector.

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A Non-Classical Model of Mass Valuation of Agricultural Property

Instability Conditions, Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 11(1), 61-72. Borowiecki A., Kaliszyk J., Kolupa M., 1986, Koincydencja I Efekt Katalizy W Liniowych Modelach Ekonometrycznych (Coincidence And The Effect Of Catalysis In Linear Econometric Models) Ppwn, Warszawa. Cellmer, R., 2013, The Use Of The Geographically Weighted Regression For The Real Estate Market Analysis, Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 11(1), 19-32. Cellmer R., 2014, Use Of Spatial Autocorrelation To Build Regression Models Of Transactions Prices, Real Estate

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Econometric Models of Propensities

Econometric Models of Propensities

Human being is one of the most important sources of causative forces of events that assemble economical processes. Working out the effective tools that enable measurement of the impact of people on socio-economic processes is necessary in analyzing, troubleshooting and forecasting. In the article the issues of calculating propensities by means of properly specified econometrics models were presented. The definition of propensity was introduced. Questions connected with topic of propensities were presented in context of concepts promoted by Szczecin school of econometrics (pentagon of sources of causative forces, types of relationships in economics, geometric interpretation of personality, broom of events). Econometric models, useful in analyzing propensities, were classified on primary models, econometrics models of average propensities and econometrics models of marginal propensities. Connections between the models were described. Settlement of analytical shapes of characterized models was mentioned. In an empirical example the presented methods were used to analyze average and marginal propensity to consumption of alcoholic beverages and tobacco in the households of employees in manual labour positions in Poland in years 1993-2005.

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Predicting Macroeconomic Indicators in the Czech Republic Using Econometric Models and Exponential Smoothing Techniques

Journal of Forecasting, 19 (2), p. 229-239. 4. Athanasopoulos, G. and Vahid, F. 2005. A Complete VARMA Modelling Methodology Based on Scalar Components. Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. 5. Bokhari, SM. H. and Feridun, M. 2005. Forecasting Inflation through Econometric models: An Empirical Study on Pakistani Data. The Information Technologist, 2(1), p. 15-21. 6. Clark, T. E. and McCraken, M. W. 2006. Forecast with Small Macroeconomic VARS in the Presence of Instabilities, The Federal

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The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

Abstract

The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns) and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

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Taxonomic and Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Development in Poland – The Voivodship Approach

Abstract

Transport is considered one of the basic aspects of the movement of people, raw materials as well as goods from the place of origin to the destination. Moreover, in the wider sense, transport includes economic bodies that aim to achieve goals similar to those of businesses that produce a wide range of goods required by customers. Hence, the efficient operations of basic branches of the transportation system determine the entire national economy. Furthermore, transport is considered a basic factor of development, both on the macro- and microeconomic scales.

The aim of the paper is to attempt the assessment of the road transport in Poland as an important element of macro logistics. Furthermore, one of the aims of the investigation was the explanation of its influence on the level of economic development in Poland.

As the source of information, the research used the data drawn from the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The main methods implemented in this study were both classic and order synthetic measure construction. Further, these measures were used in econometric models as well as for the prediction of their values.

The main result of the analysis indicates that the development level of the widely considered infrastructure is strictly correlated with the socio-economic development of particular voivodships.

The study on the level of road transport development can lead to a better understanding of the socio-economic development of particular areas of Poland as well as the more efficient use of the support funds.

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Empirical Econometric Model of an Enterprise

Abstract

This work will present an empirical econometric model describing an enterprise within the category of medium-sized companies (according to European Union classification). The company, code-named ENERGY, carries out a manufacturing, commercial, and service business activity. The statistical data used was in the form of quarterly time series, containing 24 statistical observations from the years 2008–2013. A hypothetical model of the enterprise is a system of interdependent equations.

The econometric model is composed of seven stochastic equations. The empirical model is missing the equation describing investments in the enterprise. It results from the fact, that during the years 2008–2013 the company suffered meagre investments. Investment output equation, therefore, does not provide any relevant systemic information for the management, since most statistical information in the time series assumes zero values. An empirical model of the company ENERGY is a system of interdependent equations, with statistically significant feedback between labour efficiency (EFEMP) and the average pay per 1 employee (APAY). Additionally, there is recurrence of the relationships between the fixed assets (FIXAS), employment volume (EMP), and the size of the net sales income (SNET).

The empirical equations of the model are characterized by a description accuracy of individual endogenous variables. The model also has good decision-making and forecasting qualities.

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Development Of An Econometric Model Case Study: Romanian Classification System

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to illustrate an econometric model used to predict the lean meat content in pig carcasses, based on the muscle thickness and back fat thickness measured by the means of an optical probe (OptiGrade PRO).The analysis goes through all steps involved in the development of the model: statement of theory, specification of the mathematical model, sampling and collection of data, estimation of the parameters of the chosen econometric model, tests of the hypothesis derived from the model and prediction equations. The data have been in a controlled experiment conducted by the Romanian Carcass Classification Commission in 2007. The purpose of the experiment was to develop the prediction formulae to be used in the implementation of SEUROP classification system, imposed by European Union legislation. The research methodology used by the author in this study consisted in reviewing the existing literature and normative acts, analyzing the primary data provided by and organization conducting the experiment and interviewing the representatives of the working team that participated in the trial.

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Determination of Impact of Propensities by Means of Residuals of Econometric Models for Spatial Data

Determination of Impact of Propensities by Means of Residuals of Econometric Models for Spatial Data

It is important to be aware that economic occurrences depend also on subjective (psychological and sociological) factors. In many cases these causes could be identified with propensities. Propensities could be understood as a generalized psychological and sociological causes that make probabilities of certain events higher in given objective circumstances. In the article proposition of determining impact of propensities on economic phenomena by means of residuals of econometric models for spatial data was discussed. Econometric consequences of omitting subjective factors (propensities) while analyzing socio-economic regularities were presented. Such kind of residuals as OLS, predictive, studentized, recursive and BLUS residuals were described. Econometric properties of mentioned residuals were also pointed out. In the empirical example all types of residuals were used to analyze impact of propensity to consume in chosen European countries in 2006.

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Studying “Sponsored Goods” in Cultural Sector. Econometric Model of Baumol’s Disease

Abstract

The paper presents the second part of the study of “sponsored goods” in the cultural sector. It describes economic activities of theaters, concert organizations and museums in three dimensional index space coordinate axes being the lag of labor productivity, faster growth of salaries and tickets prices in relation to the corresponding macroeconomic indices. The methodology of constructing such indexes and statistical data used for this purpose are described in the first article published under the title “Symptoms and consequences of Baumol’s cost disease in cultural sector: an econometric study of “sponsored goods”. The aim of the present article is to construct and analyse econometric model of cost disease based on statistical data on activities of Russian theaters, concert organizations and museums for the period of 1994-2010.

The regression analysis based on structural model that reflects theoretically predictable links was chosen as a method of study. Such links include first, influence on cost growth of lag of labour productivity in arts organisations and parallel trend in salaries. Second, dependence of increase of income of such organizations on dynamics of labour productivity and ticket prices, third, balanced equation - product of equilibrium conditions for sponsored goods that describes the interrelation between costs of production, prices and budget subsidies.

The calculations made it possible to construct basic and modified econometric models that establish statistical correlations between income deficit and three regressors, namely indexes of labour productivity, salaries and ticket prices. As a result of this model the article presents projections of regression relation of income deficit on «expenditures plane», «income plane» and «economic results plane». The equations derived allow to conclude that there is a statistically significant income deficit negative elasticity by labour productivity index, positive elasticity by salaries index and ticket price index, as well as rising dynamics of Russian performing arts organization income deficit and its compensation in the nearest future.

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