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. (2003). Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting . Chichester, England: Wiley. Kayhan, S., Bayat, T., & Koçyiğit A. (2013). Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejiminde Öğrenme Süreci ve Asimetri: Markov Switching Yaklaşımı (Learning Process and Asymmetry in Inflation Targeting Regime: Markov Switching Approach). İİBF Dergisi , 8(1),191-212. Kim, H., Park, J. H., Lee, S. K., & Jang, S. C. S. (2012). Do expectations of future wealth increase outbound tourism? Evidence from Korea. Tourism Management , 33(5), 1141–1147. DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2011.11.017. Lee, C. C., & Chang

LITERATURE Arlt, W. G, (2016). China Information Day Conference. Budapest, March 3, 2016. Barnett, S. (2011). China: Economic Development and Outlook. Research Institute of Economy, Trade & Industry, IAA, . Bofulin, M., Raspor, A., Stranjančević, A., Bulatović, I. and Lacmanović, D. (2016). Small destinations in large tourism market: the analysis of Western Balkan countries and the Chinese outbound tourism. International Scientific Journal , 8, p. 130-143. Chang, R. C., Kivela, J. and Mak, A. H. (2010). Food preferences of Chinese

References Cosmescu I., Tileaga C., Cristescu M., (2013) Tourism perspectives of the romanian economy, Eurostat: Statistical databased Eurostat: Monthly data - nights spent at tourist accommodation establishments, 2008-2011 Eurostat: Occupancy of tourist accommodation establishments (tour_occ) Eurostat: Tourism demand: domestic and outbound tourism

highlights, 2010 Edition. Madrid: World Tourism Organization. 8. WTM. (2012). WTM Global trends report. In the global event “World Travel Market”, 5-8 November 2012, London. 9. China Outbound Tourism in 2015. Retrieved June 4, 2016, from 10. BMI. (2011). Emerging outbound markets. Business Monitor International, October 2011. Retrieved June 4, 2016, from 11. Nessel K. (2013). Chinese tourists as an opportunity for the European tourism industry. In M. Bednarczyk, E


monetary factor 146 N negative externality 10 non-linear trends 67-8 nominal narrow money 74 nominal total import 74 nominal total export 74 nominal wage 73,80-3 nominal exchange rate 10,74,80 O OLS estimates 16,194 outbound tourism 4-5,10-2 P Panel data econometrics 11,178 parametric and non-parametric methods 64 199 Gross domestic product 150,170 H Hausman-Taylor estimator 185 heterogeneity 11,176,180-2 heteroscedasticity 14,48,179, 184-6, 194 Hodrick-Prescott filter 66 I Industrial Production Index 73,81,97 international tourism

4 go hand-in-hand, since a higher expected income growth is likely to drive up the market prices of stocks, owner-occupied housing, thereby increasing stock of real financial wealth, because a higher expected growth rate will tend to raise future corporate dividends and to drive up demand for housing, travelling abroad etc. Outbound tourism is considered a luxury good that carries certain prestige to the some part of people or encompassed nations in our analysis. However, another stream of studies on consumption argues that current earnings alone do not

/04, OECD Publishing, Paris. Ooi, C. A., Hooy, C. W., Puad, A. M. S. (2013), Tourism crises and state level tourism demand in Malaysia, International Journal of Business and Society, Vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 376-389. Ozcan, C. C., Ucak, H. (2016), Outbound tourism demand of Turkey: A Markov switching vector autoregressive approach, Czech Journal of Tourism, Vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 59-72. Puah, C. H., Kuek, T. H., Arip, M. A., Wong, S. S. L. (2016), Forecasting property market dynamics: Insights from the property cycle indicator, International Information Institute, Vol. 19

1 Introduction In recent years, tourism, as an activity enriching life and widening sight, has not only promoted rapid economic development but also facilitated communication between various regions. Inbound tourism for a nation brings considerable foreign-currency revenue and is an important way to improve the national image. With the rapid development of the Internet, the advent of “Internet + travel” patterns has improved the efficiency of the traditional tourism industry. In 2017, in terms of Chinese outbound tourism report, the total number of visitors

Tourism Organization. (2018). UNWTO/GTERC Asia Tourism Trends, 2018 Edition: China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. Madrid: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). World Tourism Organization. (2019). International Tourism Highlights, 2019 Edition. Madrid: UNWTO, . World Travel & Tourism Council. (2020). Coronavirus brief: 15 April 2020. Retrieved from: . World Travel & Tourism Council. (2019). Economic impact 2019