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Abstract

The academic literature in the past has frequently highlighted that the European Commission (EC) tends to provide more accurate public finance forecasts compared with national governments, thanks to its neutrality. The recent conflicts regarding the excessive deficit procedure with Romania and Italy and rule of law with Hungary and Poland raises the question of whether such conclusions are still binding. Therefore, we analysed a panel of forecasts submitted by the national governments with an annual update of Convergence programmes and corresponding EC predictions. Our dataset contains predictions of the general government deficit, revenues and expenditures for EU27 economies and the United Kingdom in the years 2014–2019. First, the analysis shows no meaningful discrepancies between both estimates when the horizon is set at the current year. Forecasts for the next year have equal accuracy in the case of government revenues and expenditures. However, the EC performs worse in the case of the final deficit. Second, cross-country effects are present, but the accuracy is different mainly in the very small economies, that is, the Baltic countries, Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg. Amongst the more populated states, the EC outperforms the Slovakian and Denmark governments but has worse performance than the Irish, Portuguese and Spanish governments. We also do not see evidence of any political bias in the forecasts.

Abstract

Public debt management represents an important part of public finance in each economy and in most countries is in administrative authority within the Ministry of Finance. The Public Debt Administration is the holder of public debt policy, presenting one of the most important branches of macroeconomic policy and has stabilization and developmental function. The Public Debt Management determines the schedule, scope and currency structure of the security issuance in the domestic and international financial markets and directly affects the level of indebtedness of the country and the level of foreign exchange risk. The main objective of public debt management is to ensure that the government’s financing needs and its payment obligations are met at the lowest possible cost over the medium to long run, consistent with a prudent degree of risk. Adequate public debt management is crucial in view of the severe macroeconomic consequences of non-enforcement of public debt and the potential expansion of instability to other sectors in an economy. All this indicates the need for an adequately setting up current and future public debt management strategy and the development of instruments to reduce borrowing costs and foreign exchange risk levels. The aim of this paper is to present public debt management in selected Central East Europe countries (Serbia, Hungary, Croatia, Albania and Slovenia) and to recommend further improvement of its public debt strategies.

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to empirically estimate the growth-maximizing debt-to-GDP ratio in the case of Turkey. To calculate the growth-maximizing debt-to-GDP ratio FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators are used for the period from 1960–2013. According to the empirical findings the growth-maximizing debt-to-GDP ratio varies between 34.3% and 38.7%. Based on a comparison of these ratios to current data (29.1% for 2018), Turkey has the capacity for additional borrowing to achieve a growth-maximizing debt-to-GDP ratio. If this additional borrowing capacity is used for public investment with a return greater than the interest cost of the additional debt economic growth will be maximized and public debt sustainability supported.

Abstract

This study develops an early warning signal (EWS) of government debt crisis using a panel data consisting of 43 developing countries over the period of 1960 to 2017. It employs two different methods: the noise to signal ratio to capture the signaling power of individual indicators; and the binomial logistic regression to construct a more general model. The binomial logistic regression offers a better predictive power relative to the noise to signal ratio. The binomial logistic regression can predict 61.5% of the government debt crisis 2 years in advance. An increase in inflation, government and private debt exposures, external debt to exports, ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves, and the ratio of external interest payments to gross national income can signal an upcoming debt crisis. Similarly, a continuous decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) and government consumption also increase the likelihood of government debt crisis.

Abstract

Total public debt of ten cantons in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), one of the two entities in BiH, have substantially increased in recent years. Since it is relatively small in nominal terms, this galloping trend have not attracted enough attention of decision makers. If these developments continue in the future, the public debt at cantonal level in FBiH might create serious fiscal problems and become one of central issues for policy makers. This has motivated our investigation of determinants that caused the increase in public debt over the period 2012-2018.

We apply a panel regression analysis and investigate how budget deficit, trade balance, unemployment rate, size of population and institutional changes affect public debt. We find that public debt is positively associated with budget deficit but negatively associated with trade balance, the size of population and institutional changes. These findings motivated policy recommendations presented in the paper.

Abstract

The paper deals with the accuracy of the real GDP growth forecasts produced by two Czech non-governmental institutions: the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (CMKOS) and the Czech Banking Association (CBA) in the years 2007-2014 and 2011-2014 respectively. Utilizing a research method composed of simple (AFE), scale-dependent (RMSE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, we found out that (i) CMKOS predictions achieved a lower forecasting error on average, beginning with a notable overestimation in the first turnover point from growth to decline (2008-2009), yet followed by gradual improvement resulting in superior accuracy over set benchmarks (Ministry of Finance, Czech National Bank, OECD) in later years (2010-2014). The CBA predictions, on the other hand, exhibited (ii) a high level of interconnection with official bodies (MF, CNB), but with overall inferior forecasting accuracy, despite the shorter time frame (2011-2014). Overall, the study suggests that of the two surveyed non-governmental bodies, only CMKOS forecasts represent a viable alternative to the official predictions published by the Ministry of Finance or the Czech National Bank, as CBA forecasts were found to be a less accurate satellite of these bodies.

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. = Fachbeiträge des Österreichischen Alpenvereins, Serie: Alpine Raumordnung, Nr. 14 Kart. Stegmann, Bemd-Achim: Großstadt im Image. Eine wahmehmungsgeographische Studie zu raumbezogenen Images und zum Imagemarketing in Printmedien am Beispiel Köln und seiner Stadtviertel. Hrsg.: Geographisches Institut der Universität zu Köln. – Köln 1997. XII, 219 S” Kt., Abb., Tab., Lit., Anh. = Kölner Geographische Arbeiten, H. 68 Kart. Thierstein, Alain u.a. (Hrsg.): Tatort Region-Veränderungsmanagement in der Regional- und Gemeindeentwicklung. – Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft 1997

L, Comuzzi AG, Sonnenberg GE, Myklebust J, James R, Marks J, Blanger J, Kissebach AH. Major quantitative trait locus for resting heart rate maps to a region on chromosome 4. Hypertension 2004; 43: 1146-1151. Howden R, Liu E, Miller-DeGraff L., Keener HL, Walker Ch, Clark JA, Myers PH, Rouse DC, Wiltshire T, Kleeberger SR. The genetic contribution to heart rate and heart rate variability in quiescent mice. Am J Physiol Heart Circ Physiol 2008; 295:H59-H68. Neumann SA, Lawrence EC, Jennings JR, Ferrell RE, Manuck SB. Heart rate variability is associated with

the m.p. is 84 °C to 86 °C. 1 H NMR (500 MHz, CDCl 3 , δ, ppm): 7.4 to 8.0 (m, 7H, Ar H), 6.8 (m, 2H, vinylic CH) and 5.9 to 6.1 (m, 3H, polymerisable CH). FT-IR (cm −1 ): 3036 (aromatic CH–stretching), 2985 (aliphatic CH–stretching), 1748 (−C=O of ester), 1686 (C=O), 1591 (vinylic) and 1583 (aliphatic CH=CH). 2.4 Synthesis of poly (DCP) DCP (1.0 g) and 0.05 g of BPO (5 wt.%) were placed in a polymerization tube containing 10 mL of MEK. The polymerization tube was degassed and heated at 70±1 °C in a thermostatic water bath for 24 h. Poly(DCP) was precipitated by

, Statistik Leipzig, Breslau, Polen Stegmann, Bernd-Achim Univ. Köln, Geographisches Institut (Hrsg.) Großstadt im Image. Eine wahrnehmungsgeographische Studie zu raumbezogenen Images u. zum Imagemarketing in Printmedien am Beispiel Kölns u. seiner Stadtviertel. Zus. dt.; engl. Köln 1997. XII, 219 S., Kt.; Abb.; Tab.; Lit. Köln, Univ., Diss., 1995=Kölner geogr.Arb. H.68 Großstadt, Attraktivität, Medien, Regional, Sozialgeographie, Umweltpsychologie, Stadtteil, Stadtviertel, Öffentlichkeitsarbeit Köln 4638 Stadtrand und Suburbia, neue Stadtteile Müller, Evelin (Hrsg