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International Application Model Short-Long Term Between GDP and Consumption : Case Study Indonesia

Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, str. 424-438. Engle & Granger (1987), “Co-integration & ECM : representation, estimation, and testing”, In Econometrica Book, 55, 251-276. Narayan (2005), “The saving & investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests”, Applied Economics, 37, 1979–1990. Narayan & Smyth (2008), “Energy consumption & real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks”, in journal Energy Economics, 30, 2331– 2341. Narayan & Prasad (2008), “Electricity consumption real GDP

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Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: The Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP

References Altavilla, C. and M. Ciccarelli. 2007. “Information Combination and Forecast (st)ability. Evidence from Vintages of Time-Series Data.” Working Paper Series ECB, No. 864. Available at: http://ideas.repec.org/e/pal73.html (accessed July 31, 2014). Angelini, E., G. Camba-Mendez, D. Giannone, L. Reichlin, and G. Ru¨nstler. 2011. “Short- Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth.” The Econometrics Journal 14: 25-44. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2010.00328.x. Barhoumi, K., S. Benk

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Quarterly Regional GDP Flash Estimates by Means of Benchmarking and Chain Linking

9 (accessed October 2015). INE. 1993. Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral de España (CNTR). Metodología y serie trimestral 1970–1992 . Instituto Nacional de Estadística. Litterman, R.B. 1983. “A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 1: 169–173. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1391858 . Lehmann, R. and K. Wohlrabe. 2012. “Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors.” CESIFO, Working Paper no. 3956. Available at: http

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Digital Transformation and Its Influence on GDP

Summary

Digital transformation as integration of digital technology into business results in fundamental changes of way world does business, communicate and develops on national and international level. There is increase of high-tech public spending which is connected with increase of need for high-tech as well as importance and benefits that it brings to development of economy. This so called digital or high-tech sector is one of the strategic sectors in the leading world economies, starting from the US and the European Union. EU recognized it in strategic document “Europe 2020” which sees this sector as key factor in smart growth based on tech knowledge and innovation. Europe, especially western and northern Europe, is trying to keep its competitiveness in global tech arena with USA and fast developing countries such as China and India as well as Asian tech giants such are Japan, South Korea and Singapore. There is increase of European countries investment in digital transformation through private and public ICT sector development which usually has positive impact on economic growth as well as key indicators such are GDP, productivity and employment. This paper provides basic review of digital transformation and high-tech sector in Europe as well as comparison between EU and Western Balkan countries. Additionally, there is analysis of influence of ICT spending on GDP growth. Paper could serve as basic for further research in area of influence of tech investment on key macroeconomics indicators.

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Indian tourism industry – a yardstick to GDP

Abstract

Tourism industry plays a pivotal role in the economic development of a nation. This industry infuses opportunities with commendable impact on the economy in the areas of generating income, employment opportunities, one of the sources of foreign exchange earnings, infrastructure development and promotion of national heritage and culture, which contributes towards the national gross domestic product (GDP). This article is empirical about the contribution and impact of foreign exchange reserve, earning and the arrival of tourists on the growth of tourism industry and GDP in India. The researcher has collected secondary data, and the variables are assessed with the help of correlation and regression analysis to analyse the impact of tourism towards GDP in the country. The finding of this article is that domestic tourism is the only independent variable having significance in the GDP.

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A New Model with Regime Switching Errors: Forecasting Gdp in Times of Great Recession

reduced-rank regression. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(3), pp. 682-691. Barsoum, F., Stankiewicz S. (2015). Forecasting GDP growth using mixed-frequency models with switching regimes. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(1), pp. 33-50. Blanchard, O.J., Romer, D., Spence, A.M., Stiglitz, J.E. (editors). (2012). In the Wake of the Crisis: Leading Economists Reassess Economic Policy. The MIT Press, Cambridge. Böckers, V.F.P., Heimeshoff, U., Müller, A.L. (2012). Pull-forward effects in the German car scrappage

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The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Economics and Finance (Finance a uver) , 58(09-10). p. 434-453. ANTONIČOVÁ Z., MUSIL K., RŮŽIČKA L., & VLČEK J. (2009). Evaluation of the CNB's Forecasts. Economic Research Bulletin, 7(1). p. 8-10. ARMSTRONG, J. S. (2001): Evaluating forecasting methods. In Armstrong J S (ed): Principles of forecasting . Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell. p. 443-472. ARNOŠTOVÁ K., HAVRLANT D., RŮŽIČKA L., &TÓTH P. (2011). Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators. Finance a úvěr–Czech Journal of Economics and Finance , 6. p. 566

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Football clubs’ sports performance in the context of their market value and GDP in the European Union regions

describing the relationship between the economic development of a particular territory and the presence of a football club described by certain (sporting and economic performance) characteristics. The database consisted of two sets of main variables, namely statistics of football clubs (sporting performance measured by indexes of a club’s sporting performance, and economic status measured by the club’s market value) and statistics of economic performance (measured by GDP) of the regions where clubs operate (we worked with NUTS 2 regions). The monitored period covered 10

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Quantitative Assessment of the Dynamics of Changes in the GDP Per Capita Index in the Regions of Bulgaria and Slovakia

Summary

Subject and purpose of work: The article presents the results of research into the dynamics of changes in income distribution as measured by means of GDP per capita for the regions Bulgaria and Slovakia using quantitative methods.

Materials and methods: The transition matrix was used as a research tool. As some authors note, since most of the research is limited to the assessment and analysis of global trends, this does not allow to distinguish the situation in which regions maintain their relative position from the situations in which the general distribution of income changes slightly while the location of some regions changes significantly. In this case, individual regions may differ considerably in their rate of development even in the periods when no convergence was observed.

Results: The approach adopted in this study made it possible to verify the degree of diversification of the economic strength of the regions examined and conduct a comparative analysis of the dynamics of changes in the transition matrices.

Conclusions: It was concluded that the regions of Slovakia and Bulgaria are developing at the same pace. Income stability can be observed. It is justifiable to look for and workout modern tools that will enable tracking changes in regional development.

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How Important is Gambling in National GDP: Case Study from Austria, Croatia, Italy and Slovenia

Abstract

Purpose – The situation in the field of gambling is changing due to the rise of Internet and Mobile gambling. In general gambling consumption is increasing every year, but the distribution of consumption has radically changed from Land Based gambling to Remote gambling. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the world gambling industry and a specific overview in Austria, Croatia, Italy and Slovenia in order to find some main similarities and differences in observed period.

Design/Methodology/Approach – The main research question is How important is gambling for the involved countries and what proportion of the national GDP does the gambling revenue account for? This paper presents the analysis of five statistical databases for the last sixteen years in order to find out some patterns, cyclical or seasonal features or other significant information that allows us to do forecasting of the future revenue with a certain degree of accuracy. We have systematically searched and collected data from the World Bank and the National Statistical Offices websites of the given countries. Statistical methods were used for benchmark analysis, while Box and Jenkins approach and ARIMA modelling were used for forecasting.

Findings – The smallest increase was recorded in Slovenia and the largest in Italy. The same effects were also observed in the GDP of these countries. Thus, the state budgets of Croatia and Italy are increasingly dependent on gambling taxes. It also has negative wages. The gambling addictions among the locals have become more frequent as well.

Originality of the research – The article shows the forecasts of the gambling revenue and its share in the GDP by 2027. We want to alert decision makers to adopt appropriate policies. States need to rethink their views on gambling and the excessive dependence of the state budget on gambling taxes. This is the first time a single comparative analysis of these countries and the above mentioned forecast has been conducted.

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