The aim of this paper was to verify if the goodwill (positive or negative) disclosed after a merger or acquisition is sensitive to manipulating the financial result in the acquiring company. Manipulating the result referred to the extent of cost allocation in short-term prepayments. Later we examined if the operational result achieved by the acquiring company (profit or loss) has an impact upon the revealed goodwill. The verification of the research hypotheses was performed with the use of statistical tools (linear regression analysis, nonlinear regression function test, normality of residual distribution test). As a result of the research, no significant relation between allocating costs and the disclosed negative goodwill was found, only in the case of positive goodwill its value was related to the allocating in assets costs. Neither positive nor negative goodwill was related to the operating results of the acquiring companies in one year preceding the merger or acquisition.
Subject and purpose of work: The purpose of the study is to determine the variables determining the level of synthetic measure of economic efficiency in listed companies of the industry sector as part of their enterprise life cycle.
Materials and methods: The article uses data from annual unitary financial statements of industrial enterprises according to the classification of the Warsaw Stock Exchange and data describing the macroeconomic situation of the state economy. The research period covered the years 1999-2012. In order to examine which factors determine the level of economic efficiency at each stage of the life cycle of enterprises, estimation of econometric models was carried out.
Results: In the models obtained for companies in the growth and maturity stage, statistically significant determinants were obtained only in the field of internal factors. In the models estimated for companies in the stages of launch, shake-out and decline, statistically significant conditions were identified, both in terms of external factors and in the area of internal factors.
Conclusions: A comprehensive assessment of the conditions for the level of economic efficiency of enterprises should take into account both factors dependent on the enterprise (microeconomic) as well as those determined by the environment (macroeconomic) and beyond its control. It is therefore necessary for managers of enterprises to have extensive and up-to-date knowledge of factors and conditions that are significant in shaping the level of economic efficiency.
A non-financial enterprise with receivables or liabilities denominated in a foreign currency is exposed to currency risk. Wanting to calculate a financial reserve in order to secure its receivables or liabilities, an enterprise can introduce the concept of the value at risk. To determine value at risk, an enterprise has to know the probability distribution of the future value of the receivable or the liability for a specific moment in future. Using a geometric Brownian motion to reflect exchange rate changes is among the possible solutions. The aim of the paper is to indicate that using the Monte Carlo simulation for forecasting the currency risk of an enterprise is a clear, easy-to-implement and flexible in terms of the assumptions approach. The flexibility of the Monte Carlo approach relies on the possibility to take up the assumption that the currency position changes caused by currency fluctuations have an other than normal probability distribution.
This paper presents analysis of profitability indicators of Polish construction companies threatened with bankruptcy compared to analogous indicators obtained by Polish construction entities as a whole.
The analysis concerns companies generating positive and negative financial results (both EBIT and net financial results). Moreover, the operating profitability ratio, return on sales, and return on total assets ratios have been verified.
The analyses have been conducted using financial reports of Polish construction companies which went bankrupt in 2013, as well as financial data of construction sector participants as a whole.
Bartosz Łamasz, Natalia Iwaszczuk and Oleksandr Ivashchuk
The contemporary refining sector has to contend with many types of risks, among which price risk is considered to be the foremost. Moreover, refineries define it as a commodity risk and identify it with both opportunities and threats carried by changes in prices of crude oil and products of refining. In this paper, we present selected methods that may protect enterprises in the refinery sector from the consequences of rapid fluctuations in oil prices. The focus is mostly on the opportunities offered by commodity options. Skillful combination of the above-mentioned derivatives in optional strategies enables hedging of the purchase prices of raw materials within fixed price ranges. In order to examine the effectiveness of using these strategies, the parameters of the commodity options from the New York Mercantile Exchange are utilized. The analysis of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices covers the period from June 2014 to March 2018. Three different strategies from the vertical spread group have been taken into consideration, namely, short butterfly spread, long strip, and long strap. European call and put options with different strike prices have been used in the construction of these strategies. The comparison of the results achieved in the research indicates that there is an answer to the question of strategies that ought to be used at various levels of oil price changes. Moreover, the empirical results reveal that during rapid fluctuations in crude oil price (<10% month on month [MOM]), the median of most variants (80%) for the three considered strategies was positive. Furthermore, 70% of variants gave positive results, with price changes between 5% and 10%, whereas for price fluctuations of >5%, the strategies turned out to be an ineffective protection. The best results with rapid fluctuations in oil prices were obtained in the long strip strategy. Additionally, increasing the exercise price of options used in this strategy improved the mean for the final results. The higher exercise prices of the options also resulted in greater sensitivity of the effectiveness of the long strip strategy on the level of changes in oil prices. For the strategy variant with the At The Money (ATM)+10% options, the Pearson’s correlation coefficient between the final result and the WTI oil prices in the analyzed period amounted to –0.91. For variants with the ATM+5% and ATM options, the value of this coefficient was –0.85 and –0.71, respectively. It is also worth noting that the consequence of increasing strike price in the long strip strategy was higher standard deviations for the final results. The empirical results might be useful information for oil refineries. It can help refineries to create a more successful price risk management policy, which may thus protect the companies from the negative consequences of unfavorable crude oil price movements.
The purpose of the article is to analyze the relevance of the audit in minimizing the risk of fraud. The methodology of the research: literature analysis, internal audit research and questionnaires for the selected group of companies were carried out for the purpose of the article. The result: internal audit of micro-enterprises is implemented sporadically, so it is difficult to talk about its effectiveness, while in other entities it fulfills its role, provided it is properly carried out, which means while maintaining its independence and impartiality.
The integration of global equity markets has been a well-studied topic in the last few decades, particularly after stock market crashes. Most studies have focused on developed markets such as the US, Western Europe and Japan. The findings were that the degree of international co-movements among stock prices has substantially increased in the post-crash regime. In this paper we research the co-movements of German and Bosnian stock markets during and after the recent economic and financial crisis.
International market integration means that assets of equal risk provide the same expected returns across integrated markets. This means fewer opportunities for risk diversification if the markets are integrated. It is also believed that stock market indices of integrated markets move together over the long run with the possibility of short-run divergence. There is considerable academic research on the benefits of international diversification. Investors who buy stocks in domestic as well in foreign markets seek to reduce risk through international diversification. The risk reduction takes place if the various markets are not perfectly correlated. The increasing correlation among markets during and after the crises has restricted the scope for international diversification.
International stock market linkages are the subject of extensive research due to rapid capital flows between countries because of financial deregulation, lower transaction and information costs, and the potential benefits from international diversification. Most stock markets in the world tend to move together, in the same direction, implying positive correlation. In and after crises they tend to move together even more strongly. Thus, this paper aims to research if there are any diversification opportunities by spreading out investments across developed and underdeveloped capital markets.
This research attempts to examine the scope of international diversification between German and Bosnian equity markets during the 6-year period from 2006 to 2011. We test the hypothesis of whether there are any risk diversification possibilities by spreading out the investments between German and Bosnian equity markets. In order to determine the mean-variance efficiency of portfolios we use the method of convex (quadratic and linear) programming. The hypothesis is tested with the Markowitz portfolio optimization method using our own software.
The results of this research might enhance the efficiency of portfolio management for both types of capital market under analysis, and prove especially useful for institutional investors such as investment funds.
The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of leverage on firm growth in periods of economic growth and economic uncertainty. We employ a sample of Romanian listed firms over the period 2001-2011 and several alternative measures for firm growth (i.e. sales growth, assets growth, and employment growth). The results of fixed effects regression model show that the leverage has a positive effect on firm growth. Furthermore, profitability was found to positively influence the firm growth, while older firms saw a faster increase in assets and sales. Within this particular sample, firm size appears to constrain growth.
Azra Zaimovic, Almira Arnaut-Berilo and Arnela Mustafic
Diversification potential enables investors to manage their risk and decrease risk exposure. Good diversification policy is a safety net that prevents a portfolio from losing its value. A well-diversified portfolio consists of different categories of property with low correlations, while highly correlated markets have the feature of low possibilities for diversification. The biggest riddle in the world of investments is to find the optimal portfolio within a set of available assets with limited capital. There are numerous studies and mathematical models that deal with portfolio investment strategies. These strategies take advantage of diversification by spreading risk over several financial assets. Modern portfolio theory seeks to find the optimal model with the best results. This paper tries to identify relationships between returns of companies traded in South-East European equity markets. A Markowitz mean-variance (MV) portfolio optimization method is used to identify possibilities for diversification among these markets and world leading capital markets. This research also offers insight into to the level of integration of South-East European equity markets. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to determine components that describe the strong patterns and co-movements of the dataset. Finally, we combined MV efficient frontier and equity, which represent PCA components, to draw conclusions. Our findings show that PC analysis substantially simplifies asset selection process in portfolio management. The results of the paper have practical applications for portfolio investors.
Based on the payments and settlement system, the influence of the topology of capital flow networks on the extra short-term liquidity demand is investigated. Through modelling the circulating mechanism of liquidity in a network, its different influencing factors are analysed. The factors relating to the strength of nodes and leakage of liquidity that influences the liquidity demands of real-time settlements are studied from the perspective of both the system and members, using different simulation methods. The results show that strength will lead the member’s liquidity demand to increase but the strength distribution will lead the system’s liquidity demand to decrease, in cases with no leakage effect or unchanged leakage effect. The liquidity demand of the entire system is positive compared to the amount of leakage effect but uncorrelated to the distribution of the leakage effect among members, if the effect of strength distribution is unchanged. If the effects of strength, strength distribution and leakage are changed together, the latter is the dominant factor that influences the liquidity demand of both system and members. The above findings are useful for the management and supervision of short-term liquidity demand in complex financial systems, and for liquidity risk management and liquidity rescue policymaking.