The trade effect, in this article, mainly refers to the trade impacts of member countries and non-member states. This article first summarises the empirical analysis methods of trade effects of regional economic integration and then combines the methods widely used in the current research, proposes research methods suitable for Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade effect analysis, establishes models and conducts empirical analysis and then analyses empirical evidence, by which to predict the trend of post-TPP and its future influence.
Financial market had developed a special instrument to insure the buyers of bonds. This instrument is so called Credit Default Swap (CDS). The CDS price is a kind of insurance premium that the buyer of CDS pays to the seller of CDS in exchange for compensation of possible loss in operation. Paper analyses causality between CDS price and dynamics of bond yields and influence of macroeconomic factors on it in four selected countries during the last financial crisis. Analysis results show that there is no important macroeconomic variable included in the analysis that preceded the CDS prices connected with German government bonds. Sellers of CDS were apparently aware of the systemic nature of the financial crisis in the euro area. In the case of the United Kingdom, Russia and Slovenia we can observe the unemployment rate as the most important macroeconomic variable that preceded the CDS prices for government bonds.
This study investigates how twelve cryptocurrencies with large capitalization get influenced by the three cryptocurrencies with the largest market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple). Twenty alternative specifications of ARCH, GARCH as well as DCC-GARCH are employed. Daily data covers the period from 1 January 1 2018 to 16 September 2018, representing the intense bearish cryptocurrency market. Empirical outcomes reveal that volatility among digital currencies is not best described by the same specification but varies according to the currency. It is evident that most cryptocurrencies have a positive relationship with Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple, therefore, there is no great possibility of hedging for crypto-currency portfolio managers and investors in distressed times.
The paper examines relationships between selected stock market indices in Western Europe, Central Europe, and the United States. The study focuses on two periods, from January 1998 to August 2006 and from September 2006 to December 2016. The first one includes stock quotes from before the financial crisis while the second one covers the crisis and changes in the economic situation in post-crisis years. Relationships between stock market indices in developed economies were more frequent and durable than in Central Europe, although they were subject to changes. In our investigation into Granger causality relationships we observed changes in these relationships and in their direction for stock markets in Central Europe, while bidirectional relationships between indices in developed economies remained stable over time. Changes in relationships between indices, in particular long-term interdependences, may result from the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. The increased number of causality relationships for the markets in Central Europe may testify to the advancing integration of the EU common market.
The present study presents, from the theoretical and pragmatic point of view, 6 of the established score models regarding the assessment of the insolvency risk, belonging to the Anglo-Saxon, Continental and Romanian schools. The research sample is made up of 26 companies belonging to the hotel industry and restaurants, listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The research was carried out over a period of 11 years (2007-2017). Following the application of the score models, it was found that during the period covered by the research, a number of 14 companies had a relatively high insolvency risk and 12 of them had a relatively low insolvency risk.
IBOR manipulation imposed new benchmark regulations that forced the market to enter a path of the reform of the existing financial indices and the creation of new ones. The paper describes the evolution of two IBOR panels: one representing a global financial benchmark LIBOR, and the other representing a local PLN benchmark, WIBOR. The paper provides a quantitative analysis of partial quotes of IBOR panellists and suggests that economic integrity measures should be introduced for IBOR panels. The aim of the research is to define a set of tools that provide information regarding the efficiency of the process of the production of the interest rate benchmark. The research is supplemented with a behavioural analysis of the banks’ decision-making process that interferes the contribution of IBOR data. The integrity measures can help market users and financial authorities in evaluating the quality of current and past panels and identifying behavioural factors impacting on partial quotes of the contributing banks.
In this paper, I try to complement the existing literature by empirically examining the effect of price clustering and price barriers based on the international stock market. Evidence suggests that a strong effect of clustering and barriers is observed on last digit 0. Such effect is not robust and persistent on last digit 5. In addition, the cross-country analysis shows that price clustering and barriers become intensified in countries with a more transparent and open environment.
In this paper the main objective is to examine whether the selection of the performance measure influences the evaluation of individual investments and the performance rankings generated on that basis. This study presents the values of 16 performance indicators along with their detailed descriptions. All calculations were made using the R program, and the source code can be found at the end of the article. Nine selected stock indices were analysed during the period January 1997–December 2015, and the monthly logarithmic rates of return for these indices were calculated. For 14 out of the 16 measures analysed it was shown that the choice of effectiveness measure had no influence on the evaluation of individual investments; therefore it is not important whether the investor uses the Sharpe ratio or the Calmar ratio as an indicator of efficiency since both measures are almost identical in rank for a particular investment. This has not been confirmed for the Upside Potential ratio, which means that using this indicator may lead to different investment decisions in which the objective is to maximize efficiency. Moreover, based on the analysis it was found that the OMXC 20, DAX 30, and OMXS 30 indexes had the highest efficiency during the period January 1997–December 2015, while the AEX, WIG 20, and PSI 20 indexes were characterized with having the lowest levels of efficiency.
The quest for urgent solution to resolve the world liquidity problem has continued to generate enthusiastic debates among political economists, policy makers and the academia. The argument has focused on whether the World Bank Group was established to enhance the stability of international financial system or meant to enrich the developed nations.
This study argues that the existing political interest of the World Bank Group in Africa may serve as lesson learned to other ambitious African Monetary Union.
Research purpose. Stocks as well as other securities are a crucial part of the financial market that helps to redistribute financial resources amongst market participants, which in a modern economy include not only professional stock players but also many common individuals seeking to increase their capital. Previous studies found a strong relationship between the macroeconomic variables and stock returns but often the explanatory power of those models seems to be limited in the applicable region. The aim of this article is to establish whether each region’s stock indices have to be predicted based on a separate set of variables.
Design / Methodology / Approach. The article uses correlation–regression analysis method to confirm the initial hypothesis regarding regional limitations of such prediction models.
Findings. The same set of independent variables cannot be directly applied to different regions because although the chosen Y2B model did provide an accurate relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock indices in the United Kingdom, it failed to provide accurate (usable) results in other regions (Estonia, European Union, France, Germany, Latvia and Lithuania),
Originality / Value / Practical implications. The results are important in order to define the way that the smaller and less-researched economies should be examined because detailed researches of power economies such as the United States, the United Kingdom, China or Germany often cannot be directly applied outside the initial research region. Therefore, the need of separate studies for smaller regions such as Baltic States is confirmed.