In this study, we aim to investigate the relationship between interest rate and inflation rate in the context of the Fisher effect hypothesis for Fragile five economies. In this regard, we employ recently developed panel co-integration and panel causality test methods. The bi-directional causal relation between interest rate and inflation rate exists only in Brazil and Indonesia. On the other hand, there is no causation linkage in India. Results imply that Fisher effect exists only in Brazil and Indonesia.
This study employs the recently developed Lagrange multiplier-based causality-in-variance test by Hafner and Herwartz (2006), to determine the volatility spillovers between interest rates and stock returns for the US, the euro area, the UK, and Japan. The investigation pays careful attention to volatility transmissions between stock returns and interest rates before and after these economies reached the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), which is permitted via the use of Shadow Short Rates (SSR), used as a proxy for monetary policy decisions. The results based on daily data imply that while bidirectional causality is observed, the volatility spillover from interest rates to stock markets are more prominent for the full-sample, as well as the sub-samples covering the pre- and during-ZLB periods.
Following the subprime crisis, most of the European central banks implemented several unconventional monetary instruments. As a result of the late quantitative easing, there was a shift from stimulating lending to the immediate stimulation of the securities market in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and of the smaller central banks, too. These securities purchase programs, first and second-market transactions, and asset purchases have led to an increase in the stock of securities held by the central banks, whose spill-over effects have not been fully explored yet. The aim of our research is to identify the spill-over effects of the central banks’ unconventional instruments and quantitative easing on currency volatility while considering the relative size of the issuing central bank and the situation of small open economies. By running an adapted version of gravity models, we analyzed a sample of six European central banks and the ECB. Based on our results, the high volatility levels of European currencies around the eurozone have come from their relative smallness and unconventional monetary policy, and considerations about safe havens have a reducing power on F X volatility.
Article deals with estimating real natural interest rate and exchange rate to construct monetary conditions index suitable for the Czech open economy. Despite unobservable characteristics of underlying interest rates and exchange rate, the importance of reference indicators for monetary policy is crucial. Proposed monetary condition index in gap form examines monetary impulse on economic and credit cycle in inflation targeting model.
This study is a comparative analysis of the effects of money and capital markets on the Ghanaian economy covering the period from 1991 to 2017 using the dynamic Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. Empirical results confirmed the existence of a unique and stable long-run relationship between the money market, capital market and economic growth. In respect of money market indicators, findings confirmed that monetary policy and treasury bills rate have had negative but significant impact on growth in the short- and long-run respectively. More so, total liquidity negatively and significantly influenced the Ghana-ian economy both in the short- and in the long run. Both market capitalisation and total value of stock traded, as proxies of capital market, had positive and significant effects on short-run growth, while both indicators as well as stock market turnover negatively and insignificantly a ected long-run growth. This means that capital market exerts a short-run impact on the country’s economy, while money market exerts both short- and long-run impacts. The lesson relearned is that the money market propels the Ghanaian economy better than the capital market.
The new regulations on capital adequacy aimed to strengthen the stability of financial and banking system because a stable banking system contributes to assure a sustainable development with long term beneficial effects on economy.
This article represents a review of the impact on new higher standards for Romanian banks regarding capital adequacy.
This paper attempts to empirically assess the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing policy on capital flows in the countries of the Central and South Eastern region. Given the tight trade and financial linkages of the region with the euro area, one should expect that the buoyant liquidity provided by the ECB might affect the size of the capital inflows. We test this hypothesis by employing panel estimation on a sample of 14 countries CESEE countries for the 2003-2015 period. Contrary to the expected outcome, the results reveal either negative or insignificant impact of the change in the ECB balance sheet on the different types of capital inflows. The results suggest that the magnitude of the crisis, to which the ECB responded to was immense, hence precluding any significant impact of the monetary easing on capital flows in the region. The inclusion of a dummy in the model, to control for the 2008 crisis confirms the findings from the first specification and also does not change the finding on the ECB quantitative easing impact on the capital flows. The impact of the crisis dummy on capital flows is negative and it holds for almost all types of capital inflows, except for the government debt flows, which is consistent with the countercyclical fiscal policies and rising public debt after the crisis.
Economic theory suggests that monetary policy can be used to stabilize an economy. However, the ability of monetary policy targets—interest rates and money supply—to stabilize an economy depends on their ability to achieve price stability. Using data from 1981 to 2018 and applying the vector error correction model, this paper seeks to determine how the changes in the inflation rate affect the ability of monetary policy tools to stabilize the Nigerian economy and stimulate investment. Empirical results suggest that the impact of the interest rates on investment depends on the level of the inflation rate. The size of the effect of interest rates on investment gets weaker as the inflation rate increases suggesting that monetary policy tools, such as the monetary policy rate (MPR), that directly change the interest rates are robust stabilization tools during periods of declining inflation rates but not relevant during periods of rising inflation rates. This is attributable to low bank lending rates. Additionally, the impact of the money supply target on investment does not depend on the level of the inflation rate. This suggests that monetary policy tools, such as open market operations, that directly change the money supply can be relevant stabilization tools during economic booms and recessions. As a result, the Central Bank of Nigeria should work to deepen the scale, capacity, and efficiency of its open market operations by ensuring that most of the people can participate with minimal transaction cost and by making different financial instruments available.
This article examines the relationship between money supply and financial innovation in the Maghreb countries over the period of 1980–2018 for a large annual data set on five Maghreb countries using the panel autoregressive distributed lag model (PANEL-ARDL). The results obtained from the cointegration technique of Pesaran and Shin (1999) confirm that a long-term relationship exists between M2 and its determinants: GDP, inflation, and the credit interest rate. Above all, the results of the research show that mobile money positively and significantly influences the money supply both in the strict sense and in the broad sense. Also, the number of ATMs positively but not significantly influences the supply of money in the broad sense. Failure to take into account the expansion of the number of ATMs can therefore lead to a poor specification of the money supply, and monetary authorities need to explicitly integrate the effect of financial innovation for effective policy action to stabilize economies.
The transmission mechanism has been dominated by direct monetary measures since the crisis of 2008. While the indirect impacts of the unconventional monetary instruments have not been fully explored yet. Monetary policy and funding conditions determine pricing sentiments for bond, stock and currency markets, represented by the volatilities of their main indicators: stock market indices, exchange rates, and yield premia. Our theoretical model takes spillover effects into account when it determines the variables which are responsible for volatility: the activities of international financial institutions (like the ESM or the IMF) are represented by dummy variables, while the limited autonomy in the shadow of the ECB is captured through gravity-like approaches. Six EU member states outside the Eurozone and Switzerland were analysed between 2007 and 2019 with random effect panel regression models to identify the differences in the impact of spillover effects on capital market volatilities. The results obtained are considered to be useful in mapping the potential effects of continuing monetary easing in the near future.