Carmen Pintilescu, Mircea Asandului, Elena-Daniela Viorică and Dănuţ-Vasile Jemna
Based on monthly-recorded data for the 1990-2014 period related to output growth and inflation, we use heteroskedastic models in order to estimate the nominal and real uncertainty in Romania. Real uncertainty is derived from output growth volatility and nominal uncertainty is derived from inflation volatility. Of the 12 possible hypotheses regarding causal relationships between output growth, inflation, nominal uncertainty and real uncertainty, we consider 7 hypotheses for which we find strong theoretical arguments and empirical evidence in literature. In order to ensure the robustness of the results, the Granger-causality tests are performed for 4, 8 and 12 lags, which are then used to test 7 economic hypotheses.
We revisit the Stockholm School of Economics with first principles. The objective is a rendition of a cumulative Myrdal-Wicksell process. To that end, we derive heterogeneous responses of consumers and producers to changes in the state of the world and define a Myrdal-Keynes equilibrium.
This paper analyses inflation in Montenegro, a country which uses euro outside the euro area, and investigates the factors which contribute to price differentials in Montenegro relative to the euro area. Furthermore, the paper examines whether changes in the real effective exchange rates, which in Montenegro’s case follow the path of price differentials, may have any influence on country’s competitiveness.
Research background: The need for diversification of the Nigerian economy has been emphasized and the manufacturing sector has a major role in this. Being an oil producing country, monetary policy is an important macroeconomic policy that has always been used to manage the influence of oil price shock on the manufacturing sector.
Purpose: The study examines the relationship between oil price shock, the monetary transmission mechanism and manufacturing output growth in Nigeria.
Research methodology: The study applied the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) modelling technique and a descriptive analysis.
Results: The results of the study show that the exchange rate is mostly affected by the oil price shock, while the monetary policy instruments and inflation rate are also very responsive to the exchange rate shock. The manufacturing sector output growth has also been shown to be strongly affected by the inflation rate and monetary policy shocks.
Novelty: The study has revealed the most effective channel via which oil price shocks affect manufacturing output. The exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the most significant channel through which oil price shock affects manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. This shows that effective management of the exchange rate policy via the appropriate monetary policy approach can be used to minimize the adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigerian manufacturing output.
Research Background: The on-going debate concerning the exact relationship that exists between inflation and government expenditure especially in the long and short run prompted this research.
Purpose: The study assesses the relationship between government expenditure and inflation in Nigeria. Apart from government expenditure and inflation rate, other variables such as exchange rate and money supply are included to ensure a robust model.
Research Methodology: Secondary data from 1980 to 2017 were collected and analysed using the Johansen Cointegration analysis and vector error correction model.
Results: The results showed that apart from the bi-directional relationship that exists between the variables, there exists a strong relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate and that a significant impact is sustained from the short run through the long run. The exchange rate and money supply also exhibit a strong association with government expenditure.
Novelty: The study has underscored the importance of the inflation rate in Nigeria as it affects government spending by focusing more on inflation rather than the movement that was the focus of most of the previous studies. It has also shown the causality flow from both inflation and government expenditure, which hitherto remains contentious.
Dieter Gerdesmeier, Barbara Roffia and Hans-Eggert Reimers
Forecasting inflation is of key relevance for central banks, not least because the objective of low and stable inflation is embodied in most central banks’ mandates and the monetary policy transmission mechanism is well known to be subject to long and variable lags. To our best knowledge, central banks around the world use conditional as well as unconditional forecasts for such purposes. Turning to unconditional forecasts, these can be derived on the basis of structural and non-structural models. Among the latter, vector autoregressive (VAR)-models are among the most popular tools.
This study aims at assessing and deriving a set of unconditional forecasts for euro area inflation based on several specifications which take into account the information content of, inter alia, monetary and credit variables. The models are ordered and based on their in-sample performance and the “best” model is selected accordingly. The results indicate that the inclusion of money and credit variables in the information set improves the quality of the forecasts over a horizon of one to eight quarters. This supports the view that central banks should regularly monitor developments in money and credit.
Turkey has high inflation experience and in order to bring inflation rate down as well as maintaining macroeconomic stability many policy changes and reforms have been implemented. Despite some success, decreasing inflation rate is still an aim of monetary policy and price stability is still faraway. This article investigates time series properties of Turkish CPI inflation rate in both seasonally unadjusted and adjusted forms. Results of various unit root tests without structural breaks generally show that inflation rate is a nonstationary variable. This article also uses one and two breaks minimum LM unit root tests due to Lee and Strazicich (2004, 2003), respectively. In this case, test results show that inflation rate is a stationary variable with breaks. Although selected break points differ with respect to models and variables to some extent, it is observed that one break occurred around March 1994, and the second break occurred around April 2001.
Radosław Cellmer, Mirosław Bełej and Aneta Cichulska
The real estate market, as an open, complex and dynamic system, responds to changes in the environment of economic, legal or social conditions, although the pace and direction of these changes depends on the level of inertia of this system. At the same time, this market stimulates the market environment through prices. This study attempts to identify cause-and-effect relationships in the scope of the impact of selected economic and social indicators on prices of residential premises, as well as to identify the effects of price changes on these indicators. The time horizon of the study covered the years from 2008 to 2018. In the studies, to assess the stationarity of time series, an extended Dickey-Fuller test was used for the model with a free expression and linear trend, a vector autoregression model (VAR) was then constructed and Granger tests and impulse response analysis were performed using the Impulse Response Function (IRF). As a result, it was demonstrated that the response of real estate prices to the impulse from explanatory variables appears between the first and the fourth quarters, and expires after about three years.
The article presents the results of estimating economic growth depending on the inflation levels in selected countries. The results were obtained by means of regression splines, in particular, cubic splines and a B-spline curve. The method applied helps to identify both the area of Non-Decreasing Economic Growth Rate of Inflation and inflation for which the rate of growth reaches its maximum. The calculations and graphic presentations demonstrate that maximum rates of economic growth were reached in inflation ranges of 5%-15% for Poland and 3%-16% for the G-20 countries studied. The data analysis leads to the conclusion that central bank margins for their accommodative monetary policies in the studied countries can be wider than it is implied by the doctrinal bases of the inflation targeting policy or its more restrictive version – strict inflation targeting.
The official statistics framework is based on internationally agreed standards, taking into account the core principles of impartiality, objectivity, professional independence, cost effectiveness, statistical confidentiality, minimisation of the reporting burden and high output quality. Since the latest 2007 global economic crisis, a growing demand for more, better and timelier data under limited resources for compilers and reporting agents has been observed. The concept of experimental statistics becomes more relevant, despite the lower quality in terms of coverage, data sources and harmonised definitions. The main aim of this paper is to present the methodological development of the residential property price index in Croatia from experimental to official statistics, as well as to show corresponding changes in time, which occurred due to the changes in methodological framework, institutional responsibility for compilation, coverage and data sources. A general conclusion of the paper is that publication of non-harmonized experimental statistics results, together with explanatory metadata, is better from the point of view of users than having nothing produced by official statistics.