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Changes in demand for children between 2003 and 2013 in Nigeria: Evidence from survey data


Nigeria has one of the highest fertility rates in Africa. Data from 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys indicate a virtual stagnation of fertility rate since 2003. Low contraceptive use and pronatalist attitudes are among the factors contributing to the high fertility rate in Nigeria. In this manuscript, we pooled data from three most recent waves of Demographic and Health Surveys to examine trends in demand for children over time and identify the factors associated with change in demand for children. The data show that demand for children has declined since 2003 although not monotonically so. Variables that were positively associated with increased likelihood of desiring no additional children were residence in the South-West (as opposed to residence in the North-Central), exposure to family planning (FP) messages on the mass media, number of children ever born, educational level, and urban residence. In contrast, uncertainty about fertility desire was more widespread in 2008 compared to 2013 although less widespread in 2003 than in 2013. The likelihood of being undecided about fertility desire was positively associated with discrepancies in family size desires between husband and wife, parity and Islamic religious affiliation. Programs should aim to increase access to effective contraceptive methods and promote demand for contraceptives as a way of fostering a sustainable reduction in demand for children. Furthermore, strategies that address uncertainty by fostering women’s understanding of the social and health implications of large family sizes are relevant.

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Gender Disparities, Labor Force Participation and Transfer Payment: What Do Macro Data Say?

University, New York, MÖRK E., Anna SJÖGREN, A. and H. SVALERYD (2011) Childcare costs and the demand for children evidence from a nationwide reform. Journal of Population Economics. DOI: 10.1007/s00148-011-0399-z OLINTO, P. (2004). The impact of LAC-CCT programs on schooling and health. Unpublished manuscript paper presented at the conference second international workshop on conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs conference, 26-29 April, Brazil

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Accelerating Fertility Decline in Sub-Saharan Africa

Planning, 37(1): 1-16. Bongaarts, J. (2008). Fertility transition in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Studies in Family Planning, 39(2): 105-110. Bongaarts, J. (2010). The causes of educational differences in fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2010 (Vol. 8): 31-50. Bulatao, R., & Lee, R., Eds. (1983). Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries: Supply and demand for children . New York: Academic Press. 642p. Cleland, J., Bernstein, S., Ezeh, A., Faundes, A., Glasier, A., & Innis, J

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Underlying causes and the impacts of disaster events (floods) on fertility decision in rural Bangladesh

–464. Dasgupta P., Mäler K.G. 1995. Poverty, institutions, and the environmental resource-base. [in:] J. Behrman, T.N. Srinivasan (eds.) Handbook of Development Economics . Vol. IIIA. Elsevier, Amsterdam: 2371–2463. Dasgupta P. 1998. The economics of poverty in poor countries. Scandinavian Journal of Economics , 100, 1: 41–68. Evans R.W., Hu Y., Zhao Z. 2010. The fertility effect of catastrophe: US hurricane births. Journal of Population Economics , 23, 1: 1–36. Filmer D., Pritchett L.H. 2002. Environmental degradation and the demand for children

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Family and fertility: does kin help influence women’s fertility, and how does this vary worldwide?

, George Alter, and James Z Lee. 2010. Prudence and Pressure: Reproduction and Human Agency in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900 . MIT Press. Turke, P W. 1989. “Evolution and the Demand for Children.” Population and Development Review 15: 61–90. Vicedo, Marga. 2013. The Nature and Nurture of Love: From Imprinting to Attachment in Cold War America . Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Walker, Robert S, Kim R Hill, Mark V Flinn, and Ryan M Ellsworth. 2011. “Evolutionary History of Hunter-Gatherer Marriage Practices.” PLoS ONE 6 (4). Public Library of

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