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Selected Econometric Methods of Modelling the World’s Population

Abstract

Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population size based on historical data are presented in the paper. Periodical variables were used in the models proposed in the paper. Moreover, a logistic-type function was used in modelling. The purpose of the paper was to obtain a model describing the world’s population with the lowest possible maximal relative error and possibly the longest period of durability. In this work, 13,244 models from three families models were analyzed. Only a small part of such a large number of models satisfies the conditions of stability. The method of modelling the world’s population size allows to obtain models with maximal relative errors not exceeding 0.5%. Selected models were used to prediction of the world’s population up to 2050. The obtained results were compared with data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

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Detecting Shocks in The Economic Development Dynamics of Selected Countries

Abstract

The paper examines the development of the Polish economy as well as the economies of selected countries in the period from 2001 to 2012. For that purpose, models based on the GDP growth in particular countries were built. A comparative analysis of the development of economies in the countries concerned (the United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, France, Poland, the Netherlands), based on a specially built full-factor multivariate GARCH model, is presented. The theory of the construction of a full-factor multivariate GARCH model and its estimation method are discussed. In the paper, a multivariate GARCH model where the covariance matrix is always positive, definite and the number of parameters is relatively small compared to other multivariate models is proposed. The causality of the impact that economies exert on one another is examined and the occurrence of the contagion effect is verified by means of the Forbes and Rigobon test.

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The Jackson Queueing Network Model Built Using Poisson Measures. Application To A Bank Model

Abstract

In this paper we will build a bank model using Poisson measures and Jackson queueing networks. We take into account the relationship between the Poisson and the exponential distributions, and we consider for each credit/deposit type a node where shocks are modeled as the compound Poisson processes. The transmissions of the shocks are modeled as moving between nodes in Jackson queueing networks, the external shocks are modeled as external arrivals, and the absorption of shocks as departures from the network.

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The Influence Of Financing On The Dynamics Of Housing Prices

Abstract

Real estate market can be thought of as an open, dynamic system. It means that it is able to exchange stimuli with other open systems, and that its state evolves in a way that might be described mathematically. It turns out that two main processes contribute to the overall evolution of the real estate market: long-term, predictable evolution, interrupted by sharp changes of catastrophic origin. In this picture, national housing funds play an important role in supporting the housing finance: on one hand they could either stimulate or suppress the real estate market influencing the availability of the mortgage credit, but on the other hand, they could also help to stabilize prices. In this study, an attempt was made to determine the degree of relationship between the volume of mortgage financing from national housing funds and the dynamics of real estate prices.

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Application Of Rating Scale Model In Conversion Of Rating Scales' Points To The Form Of Triangular Fuzzy Numbers

Abstract

A new application of fuzzy sets theory in social and economic research is a fuzzy measurement of respondents' opinions. In the subject literature fuzzy rating scales or fuzzy conversion scales are being applied. In this second case, a key stage is a choice of such parameters' values of fuzzy numbers which will best illustrate the perception of linguistic values constituting points of measurement scales.

In the construction of fuzzy conversion scales the item response theory models can find an application. The transformation method of verbal categories to the form of triangular fuzzy numbers with the application of rating scale model was proposed in this article. Usefulness of a suggested approach was introduced on the basis of the analysis of selected research results on inhabitants' quality of life in one of the Lower Silesian Voivodship districts. The analysis results showed big ambiguity of particular verbal categories and, in consequence, the validity of fuzzy conversion scales application.

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Territorial Division and Income Affluence – Analysis Using Two-Level Logit Models

Abstract

The aim of the paper was to assess differentiation of the occurrence of households’ income affluence in Poland between subregions. An analysis was conducted using two-level logit models without explanatory variables (null model) and with explanatory variables at household level (random intercept model and random slope model). The variables were related to the characteristics of the household and its head. The conducted analysis allowed to state that the occurrence of affluence is differentiated between subregions in the null model as well as in the model with explanatory variables.

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The Dynamics Of Time Series Of Real Estate Prices

Abstract

The presented research aims to contribute to the concerns regarding the evolutionary dynamics of the real estate market, seen as an open system flowing from one equilibrium state into another. In such quasi-stable states, real estate markets are thought to change only slightly with elapsed time, but occasionally, a sudden jump, during which the markets undergo changes of structural origin, might occur as well. Hence, the paper contains an analysis of the dynamics of time series of housing prices in order to distinguish between processes of different time scales. Research was performed assuming a priori distributions of the variables, and using the autocorrelation function together with the partial autocorrelation function for detailed data analysis.

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On Decomposing the Complete Symmetric Digraph into Orientations of K 4e

Abstract

Let D be any of the 10 digraphs obtained by orienting the edges of K 4e. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a (Kn*, D)-design for 8 of these digraphs. Partial results as well as some nonexistence results are established for the remaining 2 digraphs.

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The Upshot of Money Supply and Inflation in Nigeria

Abstract

This study empirically investigates the upshot of money supply on inflation in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning from 1970 to 2016. Co-integration and Autoregressive Dynamic Error Correction Model (ADLECM) approach was utilized. The results showed that money supply does not considerably influence inflation both in the long and short run possibly because the country is in recession. The ECM has the correct sign of negative and it is significant meaning that about 21% of the errors are corrected yearly. The Granger causality outcome demonstrates that, there is no causality between money supply and inflation in Nigeria within the study period and vice-versa. The implication of this is often that there are different economic conditions which are key determinant of inflation in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should diversify the economy, minimize importation by encouraging local production of products and services. The CBN should guarantee an exchange rate policy that is essentially determined by the state of the economy and not by speculators being a net importation economy. Also, the CBN should look inwards into the current interest rate and see how it can be regulated in such a way that will encourage private and foreign investors to be able to invest in the country. This in turn, successively increases income, infrastructure development and economic growth at large.

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On Double-Star Decomposition of Graphs

Abstract

A tree containing exactly two non-pendant vertices is called a double-star. A double-star with degree sequence (k 1 + 1, k 2 + 1, 1, . . . , 1) is denoted by S k1,k2. We study the edge-decomposition of graphs into double-stars. It was proved that every double-star of size k decomposes every 2k-regular graph. In this paper, we extend this result by showing that every graph in which every vertex has degree 2k + 1 or 2k + 2 and containing a 2-factor is decomposed into S k1,k2 and S k1−1,k2, for all positive integers k 1 and k 2 such that k 1 + k 2 = k.

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