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Assessment of changes in the Viliya River runoff in the territory of Belarus

Abstract

The research results of runoff changes in the River Viliya at 3 stations (Steshitsy Village, Vileyka Town and Mihalishki village) during the period 1946–2014 for the average annual, maximum, minimum summer-autumn and winter runoff are presented. It has been concluded that heterogeneity in the time series of the river runoff is caused by natural-climatic and anthropogenic factors. At Mihalishki Village the average annual runoff is about 59.7 m3 s–1, the maximum 1570 m3 s–1, minimum summer–autumn is 22.0 m3 s–1, the minimum winter runoff is 17.3 m3 s–1, and the environmental runoff is 21.1 m3 s–1. A forecast of runoff changes for the River Viliya, depending on forecasted climate change using the “Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections” was made on the basis of four scenarios RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6. The results of research indicate that significant changes in runoff will not occur as the forecasted climatic parameters did not change significantly. A forecasted decrease in spring runoff was investigated, thus reducing the minimum runoff is not essential. In the event of possible low water periods the Vileyka reservoir resources, involving the Olkhovskoye and the Snigyanskoye water reservoirs, can be used for compensation measures, which may be considered as the most reliable backup source of industrial water supply for the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant.

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Lithuanian foreign policy vis-à-vis Belarusian nuclear power plant in Ostrovets

Abstract

The development of nuclear power in Belarus is an important issue addressed by Lithuanian foreign policy due to a mixture of geographic, political and nuclear safety concerns. Despite the pronounced relevance, the topic has received very limited academic attention. The paper attempts to fill this gap by identifying key objectives of Lithuanian foreign policy towards Ostrovets NPP and strategy for attaining them. The research is based on the analysis of high-level meetings and statements of six Lithuanian decision makers and a wide range of official documents. The paper argues that despite the apparent focus on nuclear safety of Ostrovets NPP, Lithuanian foreign policy aims to prevent its construction or at least to prolong the process. In order to do this, Lithuanian pressures Belarus via European Union and other international organizations and platforms by highlighting the nuclear safety issues of the plant, Belarusian non-compliance with Espoo and Aarhus conventions and presenting it as matter of international concern.

Open access
Switching Political Nuclear Energy Preferences, Changing Public Attitude

Protection Vol. 94 (March 2015): 72–88 // DOI 10.1016/j.psep.2014.12.008. 10. Grigas, Agnia. “Energy Policy: The Achilles Heel of Baltic States”: 65–86. In: Agnia Grigas, Andres Kasekamp, Kristina Maslauskaite, and Liva Zorgenfreija. The Baltic States in the EU : Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow . Paris: Notre Europe – Jacques Delors Institute, 2011. 11. Juozaitis, Justinas. “Lithuanian foreign policy vis-à-vis Belarusian nuclear power plant in Ostrovets.” Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review Vol. 35 (2016): 41–66 // DOI: 10.1515/lfpr-2016-0003. 12. Knox

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