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Determinants of Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: The Case of Bulgaria
The paper illuminates the non-linear effects of the government budget on short-run economic activity. The study shows that in the Bulgarian economy under a Currency Board Arrangement the tax policy impacts the real growth in the standard Keynesian manner. On the other hand, the expenditure policy exhibits non-Keynesian behavior on the short-run output: cuts in government spending accelerate the real GDP growth. The main determinant of this outcome is the size of the discretionary budgetary changes. The results imply that the balanced budget rule improves the sustainability of public finances without assuring a growth-enhancing effect.
for Fiscal Policy , Utrecht, Netherlands: Utrecht School of Economics, Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute, Discussion Paper Series.
Okafor S.O., Maduka O.D., Ike A.N., Uzoechina B.I., Ohachosim C.I. (September 2017), Tax-budget Deficit Relationships: Fiscalists’ platform for deficit financing policy , Business and Management Studies, vol. 3, no 3.
Przybylska-Mazur A., 2016, Application of selected dynamic models to the analysis of the impact balancedbudgetrule on the economy , The 10th Professor Aleksander Zelias International Conference on
Annett, A. (2006), Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: how fiscal policy did and did not change under Europe's fiscal framework , IMF Working Paper, no. 06/116, International Monetary Fund.
Bird, G. & Mandilaras, A. (2013), ‘Fiscal imbalances and output crises in Europe: will the fiscal compact help or hinder?’ Journal of Economic Policy Reform , vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 1-16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2013.765081
Bohn, H. & Inman, R. P. (1996), ‘Balancedbudgetrules and public deficits: evidence from the U.S. states
its Title III, which defines the so-called “Fiscal Compact”. The “Fiscal Compact” is binding on the Eurozone Member States And on a voluntary basis on Bulgaria, Denmark, and Romania. . It sets an obligation to incorporate in permanent national provisions, preferably constitutional, a balanced-budgetrule in structural terms, equipped with a correction mechanism automatically triggered in case of significant deviation. Article 16 of the TSCG stipulates that within 5 years of its entry into force (i.e., by January 1, 2018), necessary steps are to be taken with the aim