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How Synchronized is the Mena Region with Advanced Economies? Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models

Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica , vol. 55, issue 2, 251-76. [5] Hassler, U., Wolters, J.A., 2006, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models and Cointegration. Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv , Volume 90, N°1 / March. [6] Inklaara, R., Jong-A-Pina, R., De Haan, J., 2008, Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries-A re-examination. European Economic Review, 52, 646-666 [7] Johansen, S., Juselius, K., 1990, Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with

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Electricity Supply and Economic Diversification in Nigeria (1981-2016)

Abstract

The study examined the impact of electricity supply on economic diversification in Nigeria, using time series data from 1981 to 2016. The study employed descriptive analysis and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) techniques. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test showed that the variables are integrated of different orders.

The result from the Bounds co-integration test to show the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables was inconclusive. The short run (ARDL) model, however, indicated a positive insignificant relationship between electricity supply and economic diversification in Nigeria. The findings of the study revealed that the electricity supply had not played a fundamental role in enhancing economic diversification in Nigeria.

The study, therefore, recommended that for Nigeria to drive economic diversification through electricity supply, the government should fix the electricity supply problem which can be achieved by short-term action to reduce technical faults through maintenance of the transmission and distribution infrastructure or long-term interventions to expand generating capacity.

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Comparing Simple Forecasting Methods and Complex Methods: A Frame of Forecasting Competition

time series and the combination of forecasts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), 137 (2), 131-165. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2344546 Pesaran, M. H., and Shin, Y., 1999. An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In S. Strøm (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (pp. 371-413). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011 Phillips, P. C. B., and Perron, P., 1988. Testing for a unit

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The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

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The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

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The Dynamic Relationship between Crime and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

Crime is a major impediment to economic growth and development in Nigeria despite measures taken to reduce it. There is, however, currently no major statistical analysis of how crime affects economic growth in that country. This study examines the link between crime and growth based on the theory of rational choice and empirical data. Exogenous and endogenous growth models are employed, and include deterrence variables. The period examined is 1970–2013 and estimation is done using the autoregressive distributed lag model. The results of our study show that crime affects economic growth at a 1% and 10% level of significance. In other words, crime imposes the costs of prosecution and punishment on the citizens and country, which influences the growth of the economy. Given our results, we suggest that police and the system of justice should be strengthened. Indeed, this may be necessary if the development target stated in Nigeria vision 20: 2020 is to be reached.

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The Link Between Economic Growth, Crime and Deterrence Measures in Nigeria

Abstract

The level of crime in Nigeria has become devastating and in order to put more sanity into the economy and the country at large, the Government has embarked on different deterrence measures in curbing crime. Thus, this study examined the interaction of deterrence measures with crime in order to see how economic growth was affected when they were used in curbing crime at different instances. That is, the interaction of deterrence measures with crime informed us how they have helped in lowering crime in Nigeria for a better economic growth to subsist. The deterrence measures considered in this work are in line with the rational choice theory being the cost of crime imposed on the society. Furthermore, this study considered data from 1975 to 2013 with the use of autoregressive distributed lag model. Moreover, the results showed that crime dependency on deterrence measures asymmetrically constituted means of lowering economic growth in the country. Hence, this study suggested that prosecution should be well funded and in order to curb crime and improve economic growth in Nigeria. That is, this would afford the country to reduce the congestion of prison inmates and thus, it would discourage long waiting trials.

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Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices of Croatia

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to examine the influence of macro factors and the degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on aggregate and disaggregate import prices of the industrial sectors in the short- and long-run. The study is based on a model used by Campa and Goldberg (2002) and Campa et al. (2005). The ERPT is determined by applying the single equation and the cointegration approach (autoregressive distributed lag model [ARDL]), vector decomposition, and data over the period from 2002Q1 to 2016Q4. In the long-run, the ERPT is complete for the aggregate import and for the industrial sector beverages and tobacco. In the short-run, the ERPT is incomplete for the aggregate import and for majority of industrial sectors. Further, we have discovered that the degree of the ERPT is higher with heterogeneous products than with homogeneous products. Due to the inaccessibility of data for micro factors, we were not able to determine their effect on import prices. The results of our research can help economic policymakers to create adequate measures in the field of economic policies that will improve the competitiveness of the economy. Finally, this paper identified the effect of the volatility degree of the ERPT on the disaggregate import prices of industrial sectors that has not been sufficiently explored so far.

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Investigation of Stock Market Integration in the Baltic Countries

Abstract

Recent rapid development of the Baltic stock markets raises the question about stock market integration level in these countries. Some empirical aspects of the Baltic stock market integration have been analysed in the scientific literature, however, a comprehensive analysis on the Baltic stock market integration level is still missing. The aim of the paper is to assess the regional integration level of the Baltic stock markets. The research object is stock markets in the Baltic countries. The following research and statistical methods have been applied in this study: the systemic and comparative analysis of the scientific literature, Spearman’s correlation coefficient, dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, Granger causality test, generalized impulse response analysis, Johansen cointegration test, autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model. The main findings of this empirical study are (a) all three Baltic stock markets are closely related markets, (b) however, the Latvian stock market is more isolated at the regional level comparing to other two Baltic stock markets (c) whereas Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets are more interrelated.

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Human Capital Development and Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Abstract

While developed and most developing nations have seen the need and continue to invest heavily in the development and training of her manpower as shown by huge budgetary allocations to education and health, Nigeria continues to play politics with her human capital development policy which has been poor and only been effective on paper despite the huge outlay of human capital available at our disposal. This study therefore examined the impact of human capital development on the macroeconomic performance of Nigeria. Using autoregressive distributed lagged model, the study proxied human capital development using government expenditure on education, government expenditure on health, secondary school enrolment rate, and school enrolment rate at tertiary level, while per capita GDP was used as proxy variable for measuring macroeconomic performance.

The results of the estimated short and long run ARDL models indicated, an insignificant and negative relationship between human capital development and gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) in the short run. Another result of this study is that, only tertiary enrolment rate (TER) has a significant and positive impact on gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC). This finding was an indication of relatively good but insufficient efforts by government to boost human capital. The study concluded that while human capital development is crucial for accelerated macroeconomic performance, government efforts aimed at boosting human capital has had a depressing effect on macroeconomic performance. On the strength of this, the study recommended that government and economic policy makers in Nigeria should place greater emphasis on human capital development.

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