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The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).
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Influence of Changes in Hot Water Consumption on the DHS Development
The methodology proposed in the paper is based on the concept of Energy Efficiency Uninterrupted Development Cycle (EEUDC). The goal of the authors was to clarify how the district heating system (DHS) development is affected by the heat consumption. The primary emphasis was given to the hot water consumption, with its noticeable daily fluctuations as well as changes caused by those in the inhabitants' way of life. The methodology, which is in good agreement with the ideology of advanced management of DHS development, employs the ISO 14000 series of standards (widely applied in the sphere of environment management). In the work, experimental results are presented that have been obtained through monitoring the hot water consumption. The results evidence that this consumption and its usage indices correspond to the level achieved by Western (in particular, North-European) countries. This circumstance changes considerably the input data for calculation of DHS elements, making it possible to work out appropriate measures in order to improve the DHS efficiency through step-by-step replacement of the elements with high energy loss.
J. Kalnacs, R. Bendere, A. Murasovs, D. Arina, A. Antipovs, A. Kalnacs and L. Sprince
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Juan Pedro Ruiz-Fernández, Javier Benlloch, Miguel A. López and Nelia Valverde-Gascueña
calendars bring to light in those countries where laws protect the right of holiday choice. In these cases, the calendar factor is no longer deterministic.
On the other hand, other authors (e.g., Tucker & Rahilly, 1982 [ 19 ]; Koehn & Brown, 1985 [ 14 ]; Chan & Kumaraswamy, 1995 [ 6 ]; El-Rayes & Mosehli 2001 [ 9 ];Wiliams, 2008 [ 21 ]; Odabasi, 2009 [ 15 ]) have explored the climatic factor giving rise to some predictive models with varying success. Nevertheless, we have not found any studies measuring the influence of all the seasonal factors in the construction