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How Synchronized is the Mena Region with Advanced Economies? Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models


This paper explores the patterns of aggregate cyclical behavior within the Middle East and North Africa region and among this region and the major industrialized economies. We seek to determine how the volatility and the symmetry of MENA countries have been modified following their recent liberalization initiatives. In particular, we ask the broad question of how far the MENA zone can “couple” with the most developed economies and maintain a relative synchronicity with the world business cycle over 1970-2010. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to decompose the real GDP of these countries and obtain the resulting series of cyclical components. These are compared at different time horizons: the contemporary, short-term, and long-term. Two approaches are used: a static one, based on properties of variability, co-variation and correlation, and a dynamic one, based on long-term relationships using an autoregressive distributed lag models and short-term dynamics using an error correction models. A long-term convergence between the MENA, the G7, the European, and the Anglo-Saxon cycles is confirmed particularly during 1989-2010, period under which the MENA countries have engaged an important economic integration process. This could denote a coupling of the region with the industrialized nations. The idiosyncratic cycles of the MENA countries are closely associated with the G7 experience, especially, in long term. While the European cycle has an important effect on the North African countries, the Middle East region is rather more dominated by the Anglo-Saxon zone.

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Reallocation and the Role of Firm Composition Effects on Aggregate Wage Dynamics

papers have investigated and stressed the relevant role of firm heterogeneity and job characteristics for the cyclical behavior of wages of new hires and job movers ( Gertler et al., 2016 , Carneiro et al., 2012 and Kauhanen and Maliranta, 2017 ), as well as for the increasing inequality of wages ( Card et al., 2013 and Song et al., 2018 ). Little is known about their role in explaining the evolution over time of aggregate wages. By applying the simple BO exercise in Italy, we find that composition effects matter substantially for aggregate wage dynamics and

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A Proposal for a Flexible Trend Specification in DSGE Models

. (2011). Multiple Filtering Devices for the Estimation of Cyclical DSGE Models. Quantitative Economics, 2(1), pp. 73-98. DOI: 10.3982/QE36 COGLEY, T. (2001). Estimating and Testing Rational Expectations Models when the Trend Specification Is Uncertain. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25(10), pp. 1485-1525. DOI: 10.1016/S0165-1889(99)00083-4 KOLASA, M. (2009). Structural Heterogeneity or Asymmetric Shocks? Poland and the Euro Area through the Lens of a Two-country DSGE Model. Economic Modelling, 26(6), pp. 1245-1269. DOI: 10

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The Impact of Economic Growth on Gender Specific Unemployment in the EU

's Law in Scandinavian Countries. Discussion Paper, 352. Knotek, E. S., 2007. How Useful is Okun´s Law? . Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Economic Review(Fourth Quarter), 73-103. Lynch, G. J., and Hyclak, T., 1984. Cyclical and Noncyclical Unemployment Differences Among Demographic Groups. Growth and Change, 15(1), 9-17. DOI: Okun, A. M., 1962. Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section of the

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Youth Labour Flows and Unemployment in Great Recession: Comparing Spain and the Czech Republic

References BELL, D. N. F., BLANCHFLOWER, D. G. (2011). Young People and the Great Recession. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 241-267. BELLMANN, L., ESTRIN, S., LEHMANN, H., WADSWORTH, J. (1995). The East German Labour Market in Transition: Gross Flow Estimates from Panel Data. Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 139-170. BLANCHARD, O. J., DIAMOND, P. (1990). The Cyclical Behavior of Gross Flows of US Workers. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 85

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Cyclical Fluctuations in the Banking Services Market and the Changes in the Situation of Entities from the Financial Services Sector

, reinsurance and pension funds, excluding compulsory social security and division 66, covering entities whose subject of activity is supporting financial services and insurance and pension funds. Through the development of interest rates, the monetary authorities affect the development of bank lending. Thus affecting the functioning of economic entities, their interest in loans and dynamics of the economic situation in the various sectors of the economy ( Lubiński 2013 , Pietrzak, Polański, Woźniak 2017 ). In many studies, a very important role in the analysis of cyclical

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An Analysis of Conditional Dependencies of Covariance Matrices for Economic Processes in Selected EU Countries

References Alvarez, F., Barlevy, G. (2015). Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion , NBER Working Paper, 21328, Cambridge, MA 02138. Azevedo, J. (2002). Business Cycles: Cyclical Comovement Within the European Union in the Period 1960–1999. A frequency domain approach. Working Paper. Banco de Portugal. Bauwens, L., Laurent, S. (2006). Multivariate GARCH models: A survey. Journal of Applied Econometrics , 21 , 79–107. DOI: 10.1002/jae.842. Bergman, M. (2004). How Similar Are European Business Cycles? Working Paper. Lund, Lund

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Measuring Inefficiency of the Czech Labour Market

, K., MÜNICH, D. (2007). Structural and Cyclical Unemployment: What Can Be derived from the Matching Function. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance 57, 102-125. GORTER, C., NIJKAMP, P., PELS, E. (1997). Vacancy Dynamics and Labor Market Efficiency in the Dutch Labor Market. Growth and Change 28, 173-200. GREENE, W. H. (2005). Reconsidering heterogeneity in panel data estimators of the stochastic frontier model. Journal of Econometrics 126 (2), 269-303. ILMAKUNNAS, P., PESOLA, H. (2003). Regional Labour Market

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Similarity of Changes in Average Prices of Residential Properties in Europe in 2010-2016

, What drives housing price dynamics: cross country evidence , BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp. 65-78. W eise A.D., P hilips J.W., H ochheim N., 2015, Cyclicity of Housing Markets Under the Specific Condition of the Existence of a Bubble in the Real Estate Market , Real Estate Management and Valuation, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 85-98, DOI: 10.1515/remav-2015-0028 W olski R., 2016, Investment Risk in the Context of Price Changes on the Real Estate and Stock Markets , Real Estate Management and Valuation, Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 41-50, DOI:

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Welfare Implications of Alternative Monetary Policy Rules: A New Keynesian DSGE Model for Turkey

References AKLAN, A. N, and NARGELECEKENLER, M. (2008). Taylor Rule in Practice: Evidence from Turkey. International Advances in Economic Research, Vol.14, No:2, ss:156-166. ADOLFSON, M., LASEEN, S., LINDE, and J., SVENSSON. (2014). Monetary Policy Trade-offs in an Estimated DSGE Model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 42, p. 33-49. DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.02.012 ALP, H., ELEKDAĞ, S. (2011). The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey during the Global Financial Crisis. IMF Working Paper, 11

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