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Gabriela Ionescu

Abstract

The paper examines from an empirical point of view the state of economic sustainability of Romania on the period 2007 - 2017. To this end, a set of macroeconomic indicators for sustainability was used. To be mentioned this set of indicators is elaborated within The Centre for Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slăvescu", in its annual publication named "Financial stance of Romania". Although the obtained results in the past are coherent with the main macroeconomic dynamics on the analysed period, it seems that these results must be correlated with the so-called cyclical position of the economy, but this analysis will be done in the future. The study puts into evidence the importance of sustainability analyses in addition to the usual descriptive analyses, because they indicate not only the macroeconomic evolution, but also the national economy tendencies from the sustainability perspective.

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Bogdan Căpraru, Norel Ionuţ Moise and Andrei Rădulescu

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the monetary policy of the National Bank of Romania during 2005-2015 by estimating the Taylor rule, on a quarterly basis. We determined the potential GDP by employing the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in order to distinguish between the cyclical and the structural components of the output. Then, we estimated the traditional Taylor rule function (with a classic OLS regression), but slightly modified, as to take into account the forward-looking attitude of the NBR. The results confirm the direct correlation between the monetary policy rate and the output gap on the one hand, and the inflation differential (inflation - inflationtarget) on the other hand. Also, the results show us that NBR paid a higher attention to the dynamics of the inflation versus its target than to the output gap. Last, but not least, the central bank has been also sensitive to the financial stability, as reflected by the results of the incorporation of the ROBOR-EURIBOR spread in the classical Taylor rule.

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Retselisitsoe Isaiah Thamae, Leboli Zachia Thamae and Thimothy Molefi Thamae

-3696. Jamil, F., Ahmad, E., (2011), Income and Price Elasticities of Electricity Demand: Aggregate and Sector-wise Analyses, Energy Policy, Vol. 39, no.9, pp. 5519-5527. Johansen, S., (1988), Statistical and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, no. 2-3, pp. 231-254. Johansen, S., (1995), Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Kalman, R.E., (1960), A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction

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Michał Ziółkowski

://barthes.ens.fr/clio/seminaires/himmig/gold.pdf, accessed: 13-01-2013). Khoudour -Castéras D., (2006b), Labor Immobility and Exchange Rate Regimes: An alternative Explanation for the Fall of the Interwar Gold Exchange Standard (http://www.helsinki.f/iehc2006/papers2/Khoudour.pdf, accessed: 13-01-2013). Krugman P., (2012), Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/24/revenge-of-the-optimum -currency -area/, accessed: 04-08-2013). L'Angevin C., (2007), Labor market adjustment dynamics and labor mobility within the euro area, Les Documents de travail de la DGTPE, 2007-6. Levine

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Maciej Wysocki and Cezary Wójcik

presented using fan charts, which illustrate debt paths corresponding to various macroeconomic conditions, obtained as a result of the shocks to the variables determining debt dynamics. The assessment of fiscal sustainability is based on two measures: the probability that at the end of the projection horizon, the public debt stock will not exceed the level of the initial year; and the difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distribution in the final year of projection. The probability distribution of the level of debt in individual years is obtained using

Open access

Adegbemi Babatunde Onakoya

& Hall CRC Press Godfrey, L. G. (1978). Testing against general autoregressive and moving average error models when the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Econometrica. 46, 1293-1301 Grossman, G., & Helpman E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press Gutiérrez, C.E.C., Souza, R.C. & Guillén, O.T.C. (2007). Selection of optimal lag length in cointegrated var. models with weak form of common cyclical features. Working Paper Series No. 139 Gujarati