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Developing a Model for Forecasting Road Traffic Accident (RTA) Fatalities in Yemen

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting RTA fatalities in Yemen. The yearly fatalities was modeled as the dependent variable, while the number of independent variables included the population, number of vehicles, GNP, GDP and Real GDP per capita. It was determined that all these variables are highly correlated with the correlation coefficient (r ≈ 0.9); in order to avoid multicollinearity in the model, a single variable with the highest r value was selected (real GDP per capita). A simple regression model was developed; the model was very good (R2=0.916); however, the residuals were serially correlated. The Prais-Winsten procedure was used to overcome this violation of the regression assumption. The data for a 20-year period from 1991-2010 were analyzed to build the model; the model was validated by using data for the years 2011-2013; the historical fit for the period 1991 - 2011 was very good. Also, the validation for 2011-2013 proved accurate.

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Economic Growth and Investment Activity as Basic Elements and Indicators of Economic Security and Their Relationship with National and International Security

Abstract

The economic potential of a country is directly related to a policy of creating new jobs, increasing labour productivity, balancing energy and materials consumption, technological innovation, refurbishing the production base, and taking action to create an environment for attracting investment and stimulating domestic consumption, as well as increasing exports of goods and services. A key feature of the economic system, that determines its ability to maintain normal living and working conditions for the population, is to guarantee and protect the sustainable development of the economy and the realisation of national economic interests. This article is addressed to two main economic security indicators - economic growth and investment activity of the state. It presents a specific comparison of real GDP per capita and growth rate in the European Union, the Eurozone and the Republic of Bulgaria and GDP per capita in purchasing power standards in the European Union, the Eurozone and the Republic of Bulgaria. The flow of foreign direct investment by economic sectors in the Republic of Bulgaria is been considered, including annual data, foreign direct investment flows by countries and the international position of the Republic of Bulgaria in this process

Open access