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Gheorghita Dinca, Marius Sorin Dinca and Catalina Popione
The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
Banking sector is important for various macroeconomic and microeconomic variables in terms of mobilization of funds, increasing savings, and providing alternative investment instruments suited to the every person by minimizing the risk of adverse selection and moral hazard, allocating funds to most productive projects, risk diversification. Therefore, sound functioning of the banking sector is critical especially for emerging and developing countries. This study explores the macroeconomic, institutional, and bank-specific factors behind nonperforming banking loans as an indicator of banking sector functioning in emerging market economies over the 2000-2013 period by employing the system GMM dynamic panel data estimator. Results of the dynamic panel regression analysis showed that economic growth, inflation, economic freedom (institutional development), return on assets and equity, regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets, and noninterest income to total income affected nonperforming loans negatively, while unemployment, public debt, credit growth, lagged values of nonperforming loans, cost to income ratio and financial crises affected nonperforming loans positively.
Jadranka Đurović-Todorović, Marina Đorđević and Marija Vuković
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