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Gheorghita Dinca, Marius Sorin Dinca and Catalina Popione
The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
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Hespanha, P., Portugal, S. (2015). Welfare Cuts and Insecurity under the Rule of Austerity: the Impact of the Crisis on Portuguese Social Services. Oñati Socio-legal Series, 5(4), 1110-1132. Retrieved from: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2683350 .
‘Private and publicdebts cannot be looked at only in isolation’ ( Jordà et al ., 2013 , p. 1); nevertheless, most studies treat sovereign and private external liabilities as distinct phenomena, possibly only loosely linked. In this paper, we want to shed light on the selected aspects of the public and private sector interdependencies in the international financial market. More specifically, we look at the relationship between the level and structure of private external debt and the probability of sovereign default.
2001–2015, the leaders in economic growth in that part of Europe were Slovakia and Lithuania. Bulgaria, Latvia and Romania also achieved better results than did Poland. A clear outsider was Hungary. With respect to period II, what differentiated Poland most was the absence of a banking crisis.
The key reason of that was low level of underperforming bank loans to households and enterprises.
But a large increase of publicdebt in the years 2009–2011 forced the government to adopt a contractionary fiscal policy in the years 2012–2014. Moreover, the government was
Janusz Kudła, Katarzyna Kopczewska, Agata Kocia, Robert Kruszewski and Konrad Walczyk
revenues: capital income and consumption. Consumption is only indirectly linked to capital by its net remuneration. The government budget constraint is complemented with bonds revenue. We analyse the problem of determining the capital-consumption tax mix with the possibility of publicdebt issuance. It means that the optimisation problem has to be set by the government, not by economic agents. The government’s choice is limited by the fiscal solvency rule and possible income shifting hindering tax collection. We strive to determine some features of the long
://www.bis.org/repofficepubl/arpresearch201003.07.pdf [Accessed 7.1.2015]
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36. Gebhardt, G., and Novotny-Farkas, Z. (2011), “Mandatory IFRS Adoption and
gains from nominal devaluation? An empirical assessment of euro-area exports and imports. The World Economy, 38(12), 1966-1989.
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8. Koczan, Z. (2015). Fiscal deficit and publicdebt in the Western Balkans: 15 years of economic transition.