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Modeling Real Private Consumption Expenditure in Bulgaria after the Currency Board Implementation (1997-2005)

Abstract

In this paper, an econometric model of consumption in Bulgaria for the period 1997-2005 is constructed. The Error-Correction Model (ECM) approach is employed and long-run relationship between household consumption and income was found. The primary purpose of this empirical paper is to get a better understanding of the factors driving household consumption in Bulgaria and to estimate a consumption function to be used for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that all households behave in a Keynesian way, basing their consumption decisions on current income.

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Electricity Consumption in Botswana:the Role of Financial Development, Industrialisation and Urbanization

Abstract

Botswana’s electricity supply is overwhelmed by the growing energy demands with the peak electric power deficits being met through imports. This study seeks to understand the key drivers of this increasing electricity demand. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and Error Correction Model (ECM), it examines the role played by financial development, industrialisation and urbanization in Botswana’s energy (or more specifically electricity)-growth nexus between 1981 and 2011. The findings reveal that economic growth, financial development and industrialization positively affect electricity consumption in the short-run and long-run. However, urbanization increases electricity consumption only in the long-term. These finding not only support conservation hypothesis but also imply that policy-makers should take into account the increase in electricity demand arising from financial development, urbanization and industrialisation in energy (electricity) consumption planning in the economy to avoid energy crisis. In addition, policy-makers should search and invests in renewable energy sources such as solar to increase access to cheap energy source.

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International Application Model Short-Long Term Between GDP and Consumption : Case Study Indonesia

Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, str. 424-438. Engle & Granger (1987), “Co-integration & ECM : representation, estimation, and testing”, In Econometrica Book, 55, 251-276. Narayan (2005), “The saving & investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests”, Applied Economics, 37, 1979–1990. Narayan & Smyth (2008), “Energy consumption & real GDP in G7 countries: new evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks”, in journal Energy Economics, 30, 2331– 2341. Narayan & Prasad (2008), “Electricity consumption real GDP

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Supply Chain Management and Customer Satisfaction in Small to Medium Enterprises

Journal of Management, 16, 331-349. Chow, C.K.W. (2014) Customer satisfaction and service quality in the Chinese airline, Journal of Air Transport Management, 35, 102-107. Choy, K.L., Chow, H.K.H., Tan, K.H., Chan, C.K., Mok, E.C.M., Wang, Q. (2008) Leveraging the supply chain flexibility of third party logistics: Hybrid knowledge-based system approach, Expert Systems with Application, 35, 1998-2016. Coyle, J.J., Bardi, E.J., Langley C.J. (2003) The Management of Business Logistics: A supply chain perspective, 7th ed. Canada: Thomson Learning

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