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Abstract

This study empirically investigates the upshot of money supply on inflation in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning from 1970 to 2016. Co-integration and Autoregressive Dynamic Error Correction Model (ADLECM) approach was utilized. The results showed that money supply does not considerably influence inflation both in the long and short run possibly because the country is in recession. The ECM has the correct sign of negative and it is significant meaning that about 21% of the errors are corrected yearly. The Granger causality outcome demonstrates that, there is no causality between money supply and inflation in Nigeria within the study period and vice-versa. The implication of this is often that there are different economic conditions which are key determinant of inflation in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should diversify the economy, minimize importation by encouraging local production of products and services. The CBN should guarantee an exchange rate policy that is essentially determined by the state of the economy and not by speculators being a net importation economy. Also, the CBN should look inwards into the current interest rate and see how it can be regulated in such a way that will encourage private and foreign investors to be able to invest in the country. This in turn, successively increases income, infrastructure development and economic growth at large.

), while real GDP is integrated of order 1 I(1). The three time series are not co- integrated because they are integrated of different order. Since the three time series are not co-integrated and an Error Correction Model (ECM) cannot be specified, the process of modeling continues with the first differences of the three variables: (3.30) ΔENS = a0 + a1*Δr + a2*ΔY + ut 131 Table 3.4. ADF unit root test on equilibrium national saving Null Hypothesis: ENS has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 3 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=8) t

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Exports: 1993-2009

This paper attempts to investigate the long-run and short-run relationships between Turkish exports, exchange rate volatility, foreign income, and relative prices by employing quarterly data for the period 1993Q3-2009Q4. Towards this purpose, multivariate cointegration and error correction model (ECM) techniques are used in this study. The long-run estimation results suggest that foreign income and real exchange rate volatility exert positive and statistically significant impacts on Turkish exports, while relative prices affect Turkish exports negatively and significantly. In addition, the results of the ECM model indicate that relative prices have a negative and significant effect, foreign income has an insignificant effect, and nominal exchange rate volatility has a positive and significant effect on Turkish exports.

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on the dynamics of major financial assets in the U. S. The cointegration model applied in the paper takes into consideration the short-run economic dynamics and long-run economic equilibrium between major asset classes. It indicates that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy determines the long-run trends of major asset class prices. One important conclusion reached is “that optimal asset allocation based on the ECM specification can be quite different from traditional asset allocations that ignore the cointegrating relation”. The second article “The Effect

Model (ECM) Approach. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade 10(2): 1-12. Nyasha S. and Odhiambo N.M., 2017. Bank Versus Stock Market Development in Brazil: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. South East European Journal of Economics and Business 12 (1): 7-21 Odedokun, M. O., 1998. Financial intermediation and economic growth in developing countries. Journal of Economic studies, 25(3): 203-224. Oliner, S. D. & Rudebusch, G. D. 1996. Monetary policy and credit conditions: evidence from the composition of external finance: comment. The American Economic Review

Abstract

In this paper, an econometric model of consumption in Bulgaria for the period 1997-2005 is constructed. The Error-Correction Model (ECM) approach is employed and long-run relationship between household consumption and income was found. The primary purpose of this empirical paper is to get a better understanding of the factors driving household consumption in Bulgaria and to estimate a consumption function to be used for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that all households behave in a Keynesian way, basing their consumption decisions on current income.

Abstract

This study examines the role of information and communication technology (ICT), access to electricity and transport infrastructure in reducing poverty and promoting inclusive growth in Nigeria for the period 1980-2014 using the error correction modeling approach (ECM). The results indicate that access to electricity and transport infrastructure is negative and statistically significant in both the incidence and the depth of poverty reduction and therefore conclude that this lead to inclusive growth. In particular, we show that access to ICT negatively influences the incidence of poverty, but the relationship is not robust when the measure of poverty is the poverty gap.

Abstract

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of the International Index Futures Markets using daily settlement prices for the period 4 January 2010 to 31 December 2015. Standard OLS regressions, Error Correction Model (ECM), as well as Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model are employed to estimate corresponding hedge ratios that can be employed in risk management. The analyzed sample consists of daily closing market rates of the stock market indexes of the USA and the European futures contracts. The findings indicate that the time varying hedge ratios, if estimated through the ARDL model, are more efficient than the fixed hedge ratios in terms of minimizing the risk. Additionally, there is evidence that the comparative advantage of advanced econometric approaches compared to conventional models is enhanced further for capital markets within peripheral EU countries

Abstract

Botswana’s electricity supply is overwhelmed by the growing energy demands with the peak electric power deficits being met through imports. This study seeks to understand the key drivers of this increasing electricity demand. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and Error Correction Model (ECM), it examines the role played by financial development, industrialisation and urbanization in Botswana’s energy (or more specifically electricity)-growth nexus between 1981 and 2011. The findings reveal that economic growth, financial development and industrialization positively affect electricity consumption in the short-run and long-run. However, urbanization increases electricity consumption only in the long-term. These finding not only support conservation hypothesis but also imply that policy-makers should take into account the increase in electricity demand arising from financial development, urbanization and industrialisation in energy (electricity) consumption planning in the economy to avoid energy crisis. In addition, policy-makers should search and invests in renewable energy sources such as solar to increase access to cheap energy source.

Abstract

The study examines the long-run relationship between domestic debt and the fiscal policy of economic growth in Nigeria in the period from 1981 to 2013 owing to government reforms in the financial system, particularly due to the establishment of the Debt Management Office (DMO) in 2000 and a new fully funded pension fund scheme, both of which resulted in a resurgence of the debt market. The issue that is often raised is the doubt regarding the stability of the debt and its likely implications for the economy, as well as the unpleasant consequences for the government embarking on consolidation. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the bounds test as proposed by Narayan (2005), anchored on the perspective of the endogenous growth theory. The results reveal that although overall the adverse negative domestic debt hurts the economy, it has a positive effect on the total aggregate government revenue and economic growth in Nigeria in the research period. Furthermore, the paper develops a system to assess the speed of the adjustment mechanism coefficient in an error correction model (ECM).