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Beta Convergence among Former Socialist Countries

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the convergence process among former Socialist countries, the Central and Eastern European (CEE), Western Balkan and Eastern Partnership countries. The relationships between the selected macroeconomic variables and per capita GDP growth rate are econometrically tested to support this research. The analyzed period is 2004-2016, with two sub-periods; 2004-2008 and 2009-2013. The subdivision is made to test if the recent financial crisis affected the absolute and conditional convergence process. The empirical findings support the economic convergence hypothesis. The results show that the recent financial crisis negatively affected only the absolute convergence process. The negative effects of the crisis on conditional convergence are not identified. The poorer countries in the analyzed group should do more to attract investment, as gross fixed capital formation has a clear positive impact on per capita growth in the examined sample of countries.

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Developing a Model for Forecasting Road Traffic Accident (RTA) Fatalities in Yemen

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop a model for forecasting RTA fatalities in Yemen. The yearly fatalities was modeled as the dependent variable, while the number of independent variables included the population, number of vehicles, GNP, GDP and Real GDP per capita. It was determined that all these variables are highly correlated with the correlation coefficient (r ≈ 0.9); in order to avoid multicollinearity in the model, a single variable with the highest r value was selected (real GDP per capita). A simple regression model was developed; the model was very good (R2=0.916); however, the residuals were serially correlated. The Prais-Winsten procedure was used to overcome this violation of the regression assumption. The data for a 20-year period from 1991-2010 were analyzed to build the model; the model was validated by using data for the years 2011-2013; the historical fit for the period 1991 - 2011 was very good. Also, the validation for 2011-2013 proved accurate.

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The FDI-Growth Nexus in South Africa: A Re-Examination Using Quantile Regression Approach

Abstract

This study sought to contribute to the growing empirical literature by investigating the effects of FDI on per capita GDP growth for South Africa using time series data collected between 1970 and 2016. Compared to the majority of previous studies, we use quantile regressions which investigates the effects of FDI on economic growth at different distributional quantiles. Puzzling enough, the empirical results show that FDI has a negative influence on welfare at extremely low quantiles whereas at other levels this effect turns insignificant. Contrary, the effects of domestic investment on welfare is positive and significant at all levels. Collectively, these results have important implications for policymakers in South Africa.

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Urgency and Development Priorities of Lifelong Learning in Latvia

Abstract

Based on the indicator of GDP per capita and the plan of business environment improvement measures, the urgency of developing lifelong learning in Latvia is analysed. Changes in the educational level of residents and in the education of employed individuals and job seekers in the period 2006-2010 are researched. The experts’ evaluation of the lifelong learning development alternative in Latvia was carried out using Analytic Hierarchy Process. The conclusions indicate that primarily the establishment of the lifelong education system in companies (priority assessment vector 0.322) should be developed.

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Measurability of Social Development. Reflections on the Applicability of Social Progress Indices with Reference to Brexit

Abstract

The question is how the global and local economic actors’ innovation-based local social and environmental objectives and results can modify the social cohesion strategies, how the disparities in economic and social development can be measured and evaluated at regional level in addition to a comparison across countries. We have seen that any one indicator in itself is not enough since it does not provide sufficient explanation for either the development disparities or their reasons. Anyway, in addition to GDP per capita, it is worth applying - and it is important to apply - such indicators as SPI and Well-Being, and various indices of social progress.

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Impact of Official Development Assistance on the Growth of WAEMU Member Countries: Assessment Following the Recommendations of the 2002 Monterrey Conference

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of official development assistance on the growth of WAEMU countries using an econometric approach. This assessment heeds the recommendation of the 2002 Monterrey Conference that diversification of development support resources is needed. The results obtained indicate that the total net public assistance received has a positive and significant impact in the short and long term on the growth of WAEMU countries. By diversifying the development support resources of the zone, the minimum threshold of official development assistance needed to boost the growth of the countries of the zone is 13.5% of GDP per capita.

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Macroprudential Policies and Economic Growth

xtabond2: An introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata.” Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 103. 21. Sanchez, A., & Rohn, O. (2016). How do policies influence GDP tail risks? OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No. 1339. 22. Slovik, P., & Cournede, B. (2011). Macroeconomic impact of Basel III. OECD Working Papers No. 844.

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Development Assistance and Poverty Reduction in Central Asia

Abstract

This article deals with official development assistance (ODA) in Central Asia and with relation of the ODA to the Millennium Development Goals. We look at present development in the sphere of poverty reduction and also at dependence between ODA and GDP growth in a selected country - Kyrgyzstan. ODA per capita and several other indicators are highest in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The time series using poverty ratio indicators for Kyrgyzstan shows that between 2004 and 2011 there was a decline in the percentage of population under the poverty line. The trend generated using analogous time series for Kazakhstan and Tajikistan is similar. However, the internal situation in the region of interest is unstable. The dependence between ODA and GDP growth apparently does not exist in the region of interest. Further aid would be appropriate to focus on development projects’ themes already successfully conducted in selected areas and selected social groups.

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The Economic Integration Of The EU13 Regions Into EU Economy During The 2004–2013 Period

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study and to highlight the applicative and interpretive limits of the GDP per capita indicators, when regional economics of the new member countries (EU13), particularly the process of integration of their regions into EU economy is examined in terms of the beta and sigma convergence. The growth of gross domestic product has long been pursued as the main objective of the economic activities of countries and regions. Its growth is seen as almost a guarantee of the proper functioning of the economy. The governments of individual countries, in the event of a decline in GDP, take measures for its recovery. Small attention, however, is given to the fact, whether such an economic development copes with the parameters of sustainable economic growth. Also, little attention is paid to the study of how the previous growth is reflected in the standard of living of the population and households in respective countries and regions.

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Economic Growth and Investment Activity as Basic Elements and Indicators of Economic Security and Their Relationship with National and International Security

Abstract

The economic potential of a country is directly related to a policy of creating new jobs, increasing labour productivity, balancing energy and materials consumption, technological innovation, refurbishing the production base, and taking action to create an environment for attracting investment and stimulating domestic consumption, as well as increasing exports of goods and services. A key feature of the economic system, that determines its ability to maintain normal living and working conditions for the population, is to guarantee and protect the sustainable development of the economy and the realisation of national economic interests. This article is addressed to two main economic security indicators - economic growth and investment activity of the state. It presents a specific comparison of real GDP per capita and growth rate in the European Union, the Eurozone and the Republic of Bulgaria and GDP per capita in purchasing power standards in the European Union, the Eurozone and the Republic of Bulgaria. The flow of foreign direct investment by economic sectors in the Republic of Bulgaria is been considered, including annual data, foreign direct investment flows by countries and the international position of the Republic of Bulgaria in this process

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