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This paper examines the implications of fiscal rules measured through the Fiscal Rules Index and fiscal institutions that supervise fiscal policies on key aspects of fiscal policies such as public debt and budget deficits. Our goal was to identify the specific links between fiscal rules, institutions and fiscal policies, to support any rethinking of public policy matters. Our results confirm that the government’s consolidated debt is influenced by both fiscal rules and institutions. Through this research we have showed that an increased number of institutions and fiscal rules is closely related to an increase in public debt levels. We explained this influence by stating that cause may consist in not having one strong and independent institution, but more institutions more or less independent that divide key responsibilities. Also our results indicate that budget deficits aren’t influenced either by supervising institutions or fiscal rules.
Gheorghita Dinca, Marius Sorin Dinca and Catalina Popione
The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
Portugal is a member of the group known by investors as ‘PIIGS’, countries characterised by having high public debt and weak economic growth. Using an extended time horizon, 1974–2014, this study seeks to empirically explore the relationship between economic growth and public debt in the PIIGS economies, particularly in the case of Portugal. Based on the estimation of linear regression models, it was concluded that in the last four decades there has been a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt in both cases, which is consistent with the literature. The negative relationship was even more pronounced in the case of the PIIGS than it was in the case of Portugal.
Marta Postuła, Jarosław Klepacki and Agnieszka Alińska
Purpose: The article analyzes the possible methods of public debt management, which not only aim to meet regulatory requirements but also obtain a market premium in the form of an optimal level of the yield on government bond yields that will be profitable for the issuer. The study analyzes the situation in the public finance sector in the countries that form the Visegrád Group (V4). The authors evaluate the main regulatory requirements of EU law in the area of numerical fiscal rules and their impact on the yield on basic securities such as ten-year government bonds, which directly influences the cost of servicing long-term public debt.
Methodology: The study uses desk research method for theoretical reasoning to verify the research hypothesis. The study seeks to answer the question of whether the application of national and EU fiscal rules in V4 budgetary frameworks contributes to lower yields on ten-year bonds and thereby reduces the cost of public debt. The authors utilize time series and cause-effect analysis as well as quantitative research for the systematization of statistical information and regression analysis for the examination of statistical dependencies.
Findings: The basic parameters subject to financial assessment within the fiscal rules index are (1) the deficit of public finance sector and (2) public debt with its servicing costs. In 2005–2016, the ratio of the public finance sector deficit to GDP was shaped in such a way that most V4 countries required the institution of excessive deficit procedures and further disciplinary regulations. The assessment of the situation in the public finance sector in the area of budget deficit and public debt does not translate into the yield on government bonds of non-Eurozone countries. Model-based testing indicates that the financial markets – when deciding to evaluate or purchase government bonds of non-Eurozone countries – failed to acknowledge the implementation of fiscal rules in these countries and its possible effects.
Originality: The study focuses on a unique comprehensive analysis of national fiscal rules employed in individual V4 countries and their impact on the yield on government bonds throughout the entire EU membership of the V4. What holds the greatest cognitive value in this article is the answer to the question of whether Eurozone membership impacts the valuation of a country’s public debt.
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