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Bogdan Căpraru, Norel Ionuţ Moise and Andrei Rădulescu

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the monetary policy of the National Bank of Romania during 2005-2015 by estimating the Taylor rule, on a quarterly basis. We determined the potential GDP by employing the Hodrick-Prescott filter, in order to distinguish between the cyclical and the structural components of the output. Then, we estimated the traditional Taylor rule function (with a classic OLS regression), but slightly modified, as to take into account the forward-looking attitude of the NBR. The results confirm the direct correlation between the monetary policy rate and the output gap on the one hand, and the inflation differential (inflation - inflationtarget) on the other hand. Also, the results show us that NBR paid a higher attention to the dynamics of the inflation versus its target than to the output gap. Last, but not least, the central bank has been also sensitive to the financial stability, as reflected by the results of the incorporation of the ROBOR-EURIBOR spread in the classical Taylor rule.

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Claire Brenner, Claude Meisch, Benjamin Apperl and Karsten Schulz

ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, COMPDYN, Kos Island, Greece. Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Salinas, J. L., Blöschl, G., 2013. Socio-hydrology: Conceptualising human-flood interactions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 8, 3295–3303. Dietterich, T.G., 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. Multiple Classifier Systems, 1857, 1–15. DORIS, 2015. Digital Upper Austrian spatial information system. Data available under http://doris.ooe.gv.at Dorn

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Markus Hesse and Stefan Siedentop

dynamics over time. Accordingly, Hesse, Polívka and Reicher (2018) face the question of how to approach the temporarily differentiated development dynamics of suburban spaces within a systematic, conceptual framework for analysis. The temporal variation and trajectory analysis is key to that debate. The paper focuses on the integration of the particular phases and cycles into a broader context of the suburban system and – as far as possible – describes interdependencies of trigger factors and of the local and regional frameworks. This distinguishes the approach from

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Andrzej Sawicki, Jacek Mierczyński, Agata Mikos and Justyna Sławińska

) Experimental investigations of the cyclic mobility of saturated sand (in Polish), Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika , 4, 271–280. Tsuchida H. (1970) Prediction and counter measure against the liquefaction in sand deposits (in Japanese), Seminar in the Port and Harbor Research Institute, Ministry of Transport. Xenaki V. C. and Athanasopoulos G. A. (2003) Liquefaction resistance of sand-silt mixtures: an experimental investigation of the effect of fines, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering , 23 , 183–194. Yamamuro J. A. and Covert K. M. (2001

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Jian Li, Shanxiong Chen and Lingfa Jiang

Subgrade Soils due to Repeated Loading, Transportation Research Record, 1975(537): 1-17. 10. Stewart H E: Permanent Strain From Cyclic Variable- Amplitude Loadings, Journal Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, 1986,112(6): 646-660. 11. Cai Ying, Cao Xinwen: Study of the Critical Dynamic Stress and Permanent Strain of the Subgrade-Soil under the Repeated Load, Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 1996, 31(1): 1-5. 12. XIE Dingyi: Soil Dynamics, Xi’an: Xi’an Jiaotong University, 1986. 13. Seed H B, Chan C K

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Eva Partene, Luminita Fekete-Nagy and V. Stoian

. Cyclic in-plane experimental tests for evaluation of shear capacity of brick masonry walls. 9 th International Masonry Conference. Guimaraes. Portugal. Partene, E. 2013. Numerical analysis for evaluation of shear capacity of brick masonry walls. Vienna Congress on Recent Advances in Eartquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics. Vienna, Austria.

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Volodymyr Iasnii and Petro Yasniy

REFERENCES 1. Abeyaratne R., Kim S.-J. (1997), Cyclic effects in shape-memory alloys: a one-dimensional continuum model, International Journal of Solids and Structures , 34(25), 3273-3289. 2. Auricchio F., Boatti E., Conti M. (2015), SMA Biomedical Applications, Shape Memory Alloy Engineering , Chapter 11, 307-341. 3. Auricchio F., Marfia S., Sacco E. (2003), Modelling of SMA materials: training and two way memory effect, Computers & Structures , 81, 2301-2317. 4. ASTM F2516-14 (2014), Standard Test Method for Tension Testing of

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G. Bocewicz, W. Muszyński and Z. Banaszak

.A. Jafari, “Synthesis of sequential controller in the presence of conflicts and free choices”, IEEE Trans. Robotics and Automation 14 (3), 488–492 (1998). [24] R. Wójcik, “Towards strong stability of concurrent repetitive processes sharing resources”, Systems Science 27 (2), 37–47 (2001). [25] R. Wójcik, Z. Banaszak, and M. Polak, “Dynamics analysis of cyclic processes with periodic resource allocation function”, Proc. 9th IEEE Int. Conf. Methods and Models in Automation and Robotics 2, 1157–1162 (2003). [26] J. Pempera and C. Smutnicki

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Bernard Okoński, Antoni Miler and Monika Panfil

The dynamics of climate elements and land drainage impact on hydrologic conditions in a lakeland blind drainage area

The assessment of climate dynamics and the impact of land drainage systems on lakeland blind drainage area was the problem studied in the paper. The research area was located based on relative stability of non-climatic physiographic characteristics and water management practices over a longer time-scale. Thus, the influence of non-climatic factors on water storage could be omitted. The study site was situated in Warmia region in the Dopływ spod Nowej Wsi catchment (27.53 km2). One of local seepage ponds called Bagna Ramuckie within the aforementioned catchment was investigated. The study covered the time period since the first half of the 19th century to the year 2005.

The decisive factors affecting processes of increase and decrease of pond water surface area in considered spatial units were the trends of air temperature over the long time scale. It was indicated that natural enlargement of water surface area in the pond occurred after 40-years long period of air temperature decrease and the decline followed 20-year-long period of air temperature rise. Precipitation did not show any trends for long periods but typical cyclic changes of precipitation over a short time-scale. These pluvial cycles stimulated or destimulated processes of water surface changes additionally over short periods. The first episode of water surface decrease in the seepage pond occurred when air temperature rise trend coincided with intensive land drainage and changes in some land management patterns (the 2nd half of the 19th century). Nevertheless, during the 20th century water management practices were rather stable and did not have any impact on rise or decline of seepage pond water surface area.

Open access

A. Sawicki and J. Mierczyński

.B. Seed, “Volume changes in sands during cyclic loading”, J. Soil Mech. Foundation Div., ASCE 97 (SM9), 1171-1182 (1971). [28] A. Sawicki, “An engineering model for compaction of sand under cyclic loading”, Engineering Transactions 35 (4), 677-693 (1987). [29] T. Wichtmann, A. Niemunis, and Th. Triantafyllidis, “Strain accumulation in sand due to cyclic loading: drained triaxial tests”, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 25, 967-979 (2005). [30] A. Sawicki, J. Mierczyński, and W. Świdziński, “Strains in sand due to