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  • Author: Vlatko Cvetanovski x
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Abstract

Introduction: Clinical manifestations of influenza range from relatively mild and self-limiting respiratory infections to severe clinical manifestations with significant morbidity and mortality. The awareness of predictive indicators for the lethal outcome of influenza is of particular significance in making timely and exact decision for adequate treatment. The aim of this study was to identify the factors in patients with a severe form of influenza, resulting in lethal outcome.

Materials and methods: The investigation was a prospective group comparison conducted at the University Clinic for Infectious Diseases in Skopje, R. Macedonia in the period from January 01, 2012 to January 01, 2015. The study included adult patients with a severe form of influenza who were further categorized into a group of either survived patients or a group of deceased patients. Demographic, clinical and biochemical data were noted in all patients included in the study on admission. The variables of the univariate analysis that showed a significant difference in terms of the outcome were used for creating multivariate logistic and regression analysis of the outcome as dependent factors. The independent predictors for lethal outcome in severe cases of influenza were identified by using logistic regression.

Results: The study included 87 patients with a severe form of clinical and laboratory confirmed influenza. The patients were divided in two groups: survived (n = 75) and deceased (n = 75). The overall mortality was 13.79%. Multivariate analysis conducted on admission to hospital identified cardiovascular comorbid diseases (p = 0.014), urea values higher than 8.3 U/L (p = 0.045) and SAPS score (p = 0.048) as independent predictors of the outcome in patients with severe form of influenza. Influenza patients with cardiovascular diseases had 2.024 times greater risk of death from influenza in comparison to the patients having influenza without history of such a disease (OR = 2.024 95% CI 1.842–17.337). Patients with serum urea values higher than 8.3 U/L had 1.89 times higher chance of death compared to patients with normal values (OR = 1.89 95% CI 1.091–11.432). The increase of the SAPS score in one point increased the chance of death in patients with influenza by 1.2% (OR = 1.12 95% CI 1.01–2.976). The ROC analysis indicated that cardiovascular diseases, increased urea values and SAPS score in combination act as a good prognostic model for the fatal outcome. The global authenticity of this predictive model to foresee lethal outcome amounts to 80%, sensitivity being 82%, and specificity 70%.

Conclusion: Cardiovascular diseases, increased values of urea over 8.3 mmol/l and SAPS score are independent predictive indicators for lethal outcome in severe influenza. Early identification of the outcome predictors in patients with severe influenza will allow implementation of adequate medical treatment and will contribute to decreasing of mortality in patients with severe form of influenza.

Abstract

Introduction: Seasonal influenza, although often presented as a mild, self-limiting disease, is frequently accompanied by complications that lead to the development of a severe clinical presentation and a fatal outcome. The most common are respiratory complications, with secondary bacterial pneumonia being the leading cause.

Aim: The aim of this study is to determine the impact of pneumonia on the severity of the clinical presentation and outcome in patients with seasonal influenza.

Materials and Methods: This research is comparatively group-based and has been conducted at the University Clinic for Infectious Diseases and Febrile Conditions during a three-year period. The analysis consists of 122 adult patients with clinically and laboratory-confirmed influenza. Based on the severity of the clinical picture, the patients are divided into two groups, severe (n=87) and mild (n=35) forms of the disease. The study included demographic, general data, clinical symptoms, and signs as well as complications.

Results: Of 122 patients with seasonal influenza, complications were registered among 108(88.52%), with a significantly more frequent emergence among the group with severe influenza 93.1% vs 77.14% (p=0.012). Pneumonia was the most common 98(80.33%) and had a significant effect on disease severity (p=0.002). Complications from the types of ABI 8(6.56%), ARDS 7(5.74%), sepsis 5(4.1%), DIC 4 (3.28%) and otitis 2(1.64%) were reported only in the group with severe influenza. Acute meningoencephalitis was registered among 5(4.1%), gastroenterocolitis among 3(2.46%), and hepatic damage among 14(11.47%) of patients.

Conclusion: Pneumonia as the most common complication among patients with seasonal influenza significantly impacts the clinical course and outcome of the illness.