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  • Author: Vesna Janković-Milić x
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Abstract

Low labour costs as one of the key sources of export stimulation, the competitive advantage of domestic agricultural production and bilateral agreements with partner countries - all promote export as a potentially significant factor of encouragement of economic development of the Republic of Serbia.Taking into account this fact, on the one hand, and balance of payments problems that Serbia has been facing over the years, on the other hand, the subject of this paper is an analysis of trends in the Republic of Serbia export and explanation of variations in the export trends during the period from 2004 to 2014. The aim of the paper is to explore export trends forecast from January to December 2015.The analysis uses Holt-Winters and ARIMA methods for analyszing time series.The paper provides insight into the export trend forecasts for the period of 12 months, and thus confirms the possibility of practical usage of the time series analysis methods in forecasting macroeconomic variables such as export. The used methods identify increase of export during the summer and its decrease after October 2015. The paper establishes the existence of a high degree of congruence between forecasts obtained by using two methods, which confirm a high quality of the elaborated methods in the analysis of exports.

Abstract

Economic growth and competitiveness are usually analysed at the level of the national economy in traditional economic research. The problem of competitiveness within this line of thought is mainly regarded from the perspective of determining the sources of sustainable growth, which makes the economy more competitive than others. Competitiveness, therefore, is a multidimensional concept, which includes a range of factors, such as institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic environment, market, human capital and technological development. Also, the process of joining the European Union significantly stimulates the development of the exact categories that are relevant for acceleration of the economic development. The aim of the paper is to assess the competitiveness of the candidate or potential candidate countries for membership in the European Union, through a comparative analysis of their competitiveness vis-à-vis EU countries. The results indicate that the competitiveness of the EU 15 countries, measured by Global Competitiveness Index and GDP per capita, is statistically significantly higher than the competitiveness of EU country group enlarged in the period 2004-2013, also compared to EU candidate or potential candidate countries. However, when it comes to the pillar of competitiveness related to the macroeconomic environment, according to the latest Global Competitiveness Report (2017-2018), the scores of the EU countries associated with enlargements in the period 2004-2013 are statistically significantly better than the EU 15 countries.