Analysis of extreme hydrological Events on THE danube using the Peak Over Threshold method
The Peak Over Threshold Method (POT) was used as an alternative technique to the traditional analysis of annual discharge maxima of the Danube River. The POT method was applied to a time-series of daily discharge values covering a period of 60 years (1931-1990) at the following gauge stations: Achleiten, Kienstock, Wien, Bratislava and Nagymaros. The first part of the paper presents the use of the POT method and how it was applied to daily discharges. All mean daily discharges exceeding a defined threshold were considered in the POT analysis. Based on the POT waves independence criteria the maximum daily discharge data were selected. Two theoretical log-normal (LN) and Log-Pearson III (LP3) distributions were used to calculate the probability of exceeding annual maximum discharges. Performance of the POT method was compared to the theoretical distributions (LN, LP3). The influence of the data series length on the estimation of the N-year discharges by POT method was carried out too. Therefore, with regard to later regulations along the Danube channel bank the 40, 20 and 10-year time data series were chosen in early of the 60-year period and second analysed time data series were selected from the end of the 60-year period. Our results suggest that the POT method can provide adequate and comparable estimates of N-year discharges for more stations with short temporal coverage.
The study is focused on the analysis and statistical evaluation of the joint probability of the occurrence of hydrological variables such as peak discharge (Q), volume (V) and duration (t). In our case study, we focus on the bivariate statistical analysis of these hydrological variables of the Danube River in Bratislava gauging station, during the period of 1876-2013. The study presents the methodology of the bivariate statistical analysis, choice of appropriate marginal distributions and appropriate copula functions in representing the joint distribution. Finally, the joint return periods and conditional return periods for some hydrological pairs (Q-V, V-t, Q-t) were calculated. The approach using copulas can reproduce a wide range of correlation (nonlinear) frequently observed in hydrology. Results of this study provide comprehensive information about flood where a devastating effect may be increased in the case where its three basic components (or at least two of them) Q, V and t have the same significance.
In the paper, the static computable general equilibrium model for Slovakia and Slovenia is used for a tax burden analysis. There was considered simultaneous 1% increase in taxes on primary factors, on firms’ and government domestic and imported purchases, on import taxes, on output (or income) tax, on private domestic and imported consumption taxes and export subsidies. The direct tax burden as well as the allocative efficiency effects of a tax, the welfare effects and welfare decomposition of such change for both countries is analysed. The most sensitive sectors on tax rate changes is heavy manufacturing and processed food and the most distorting effect has the tax increase on private consumption tax. The government’s tax increase should generate return at least 105.75% of its costs in Slovakia and 101.92% in Slovenia, otherwise the welfare will decline.
Veronika Bačová Mitková, Pavla Pekárová, Pavol Miklánek and Ján Pekár
The problem of understand natural processes as factors that restrict, limit or even jeopardize the interests of human society is currently of great concern. The natural transformation of flood waves is increasingly affected and disturbed by artificial interventions in river basins. The Danube River basin is an area of high economic and water management importance. Channel training can result in changes in the transformation of flood waves and different hydrographic shapes of flood waves compared with the past. The estimation and evolution of the transformation of historical flood waves under recent river conditions is only possible by model simulations. For this purpose a nonlinear reservoir cascade model was constructed. The NLN-Danube nonlinear reservoir river model was used to simulate the transformation of flood waves in four sections of the Danube River from Kienstock (Austria) to Štúrovo (Slovakia) under relatively recent river reach conditions. The model was individually calibrated for two extreme events in August 2002 and June 2013. Some floods that occurred on the Danube during the period of 1991–2002 were used for the validation of the model. The model was used to identify changes in the transformational properties of the Danube channel in the selected river reach for some historical summer floods (1899, 1954 1965 and 1975). Finally, a simulation of flood wave propagation of the most destructive Danube flood of the last millennium (August 1501) is discussed.
Pavla Pekárová, Dana Halmová, Veronika Bačová Mitková, Pavol Miklánek, Ján Pekár and Peter Škoda
In this paper we focused on the history of floods and extreme flood frequency analysis of the upper Danube River at Bratislava. Firstly, we briefly describe the flood marks found on the Danube River in the region of Bratislava, Slovakia, and provide an account of the floods’ consequences. Secondly, we analyzed the annual maximum discharge series for the period 1876-2012, including the most recent flood of June 2013. Thirdly, we compare the values of T-year design discharge computed with and without incorporating the historic floods (floods of the years 1501, 1682, and 1787 into the 138-year series of annual discharge peaks). There are unfortunately only a few historic flood marks preserved in Bratislava, but there are very important and old marks in neighbouring Hainburg and other Austrian cities upstream to Passau. The calculated T-year maximum discharge of the Danube at Bratislava for the period 1876-2010 without and with historic flood values have been compared. Our analysis showed that without incorporating the historic floods from the years 1501, 1682, and 1787 the 1000-year discharge calculated only with data from the instrumented period 1876- 2013 is 14,188 m3 s-1, and it is lower compared to the 1000-year discharge of 14,803 m3 s-1 when the three historic floods are included. In general, the T-year discharge is higher throughout the whole spectrum of T-year discharges (10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500-year discharge) when the three historic floods are included. Incorporating historic floods into a time series of maximum annual discharge seems to exert a significant effect on the estimates of low probability floods. This has important implications for flood managements and estimation of flood design discharge.