This paper explores the causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth in South Africa covering the period 1970 – 2017. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the multivariate Granger-causality test. The empirical results indicate that there is unidirectional causality from economic growth to public debt, but only in the short run. However, the study fails to establish any causality between public debt service and economic growth, both in the short run and long run. In line with the empirical evidence, the study concludes that it is economic growth that drives public debt in South Africa, and that the causal relationship between public debt and economic growth is sensitive to the timeframe considered. The paper recommends policymakers in South Africa to consider growth-enhancing policies in the short run, since poor economic performances may lead to high public debt levels.
This paper provides a conceptual analysis of government debt servicing in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2015. The mounting debt burden arising largely from nonconcessionary foreign loans since the 1980s, and the economic hardships that characterise the country beginning the late 1990s, caused dreadful public debt servicing challenges. Thus, the paper discusses the public debt service reforms and policies; trends; and problems in Zimbabwe over the review period. In the paper, it was identified that between 1983 and 1997, the government’s debt servicing costs were growing exponentially, resulting in liquidity challenges. However, between 1998 and 2015, the country had plunged into public debt service overhang, with public debt servicing liabilities exceeding the country’s foreign exchange earnings. Notwithstanding the various public debt servicing reforms to boost domestic revenues, Zimbabwe, as many other developing countries, still faces a number of debt servicing problems. Among others, these include: high government debt, low industrial and export competitiveness, narrow revenue base and subdued investor confidence. The paper recommends the government of Zimbabwe to undertake the following measures, among others, aimed at either boosting or expanding the revenue base: (i) improving tax enforcements; (ii) mobilising the informal sector; and (iii) expanding the productive capacity of public entities.
The main goal of this paper is to discuss the dynamics of public debt servicing – both domestic and foreign – in Zambia, tracing the trends, reforms and challenges over the period from 1964 to 2015. The paper shows that the exceptional rise in public debt servicing obligations in Zambia over the period under review has been principally due to high domestic and foreign interest rates, frequent debt rescheduling at commercial rates, and capitalisation of non-liquidated service obligations at commercial rates. Also revealed in the paper is the fact that prior to 2005, Zambia experienced severe public debt servicing problems which eased after 2006 owing to debt relief initiatives and an economic rebound. Among the government debt service reforms discussed in the paper are structural adjustments in foreign exchange management, fiscal and monetary reforms, and aggressive engagement of traditional creditors. Primary among the identified challenges of public debt servicing in Zambia was the insistent economic crises that dogged the country during the study period. Notwithstanding the current public debt service sustainability and remarkable economic performance that characterise the country today, the paper found that the recent contraction of nonconcessional loans by the state poses a threat to debt service sustainability in future. Hence, the paper recommends, among other things, for aligning of public sector infrastructure spending with revenues to ensure budget sustainability, and to continue diversifying the economy to minimise the impact of external commodity price shocks on the economy.