The road network development programme, as well as planning and design of transport systems of cities and agglomerations require complex analyses and traffic forecasts. It particularly applies to higher-class roads (motorways and expressways), which in urban areas, support different types of traffic. Usually there is a conflict between the needs of long-distance traffic, in the interest of which higher-class roads run through undeveloped areas, and the needs of bringing such road closer to potential destinations, cities . By recognising the importance of this problem it is necessary to develop the research and methodology of traffic analysis, especially trip models. The current experience shows that agglomeration models are usually simplified in comparison to large city models, what results from misunderstanding of the significance of these movements for the entire model functioning, or the lack of input data. The article presents the INMOP 3 research project results, within the framework of which it was attempted to increase the accuracy of traffic generation in agglomeration model owing to the use of BigData – the mobile operator’s data on SIM card movements in the Warsaw agglomeration.
A. Brzeziński, K. Brzeziński, T. Dybicz and Ł. Szymański
Within the INMOP 3 research project, an attempt was made to solve a number of problems associated with the methodology of modelling travel in urban areas and the application of intermodal models. One of these is the ability to describe the behaviour of transport system users, when it comes to making decisions regarding the selection of means of transport and searching for relationships between travel describing factors and the decisions made in regard of means of transport choice.
The paper describes a probabilistic approach to the determination of modal split, and the application of a logistic regression model to determine the impact of variables describing individual and mass transport travels on the probability of selecting specific means of transport. Travels in local model of Warsaw city divided into 9 motivation groups were tested, for which ultimately 8 models were developed, out of which 7 were deemed very well fitted (obtained pseudo R2 was well above 0.2).