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  • Author: Slawomir Kulesza x
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Abstract

The presented research aims to contribute to the concerns regarding the evolutionary dynamics of the real estate market, seen as an open system flowing from one equilibrium state into another. In such quasi-stable states, real estate markets are thought to change only slightly with elapsed time, but occasionally, a sudden jump, during which the markets undergo changes of structural origin, might occur as well. Hence, the paper contains an analysis of the dynamics of time series of housing prices in order to distinguish between processes of different time scales. Research was performed assuming a priori distributions of the variables, and using the autocorrelation function together with the partial autocorrelation function for detailed data analysis.

Abstract

The paper deals with the description of the issues related to the dynamics of the real estate market in terms of sharp, unexpected changes in the housing prices which have been observed in the last decade in many European countries due to some macroeconomic circumstances. When such perturbations appear, the real estate market is said to be structurally unstable, since even a small variation in the control parameters might result in a large, structural change in the state of the whole system. The essential problem addressed in the paper is the need to define and discriminate between the intervals of stable and unstable real estate market development with special attention paid to the latter. The research aims at modeling hardly explored field of discontinuous changes in the real estate market in order to reveal the bifurcation edge. Assuming that the periods of sudden price changes reflect an intrinsic property of the real estate market, it is shown that the evolution path draws for most of the time a smooth curve onto the stability area of the equilibrium surface, and only briefly penetrates into the instability area to hop to another equilibrium state.

Abstract

This study examined similarities between local real estate markets in Poland from 2006 - 2013 by analyzing changes in housing prices. The analyses covered five cities - all of which are major centers of their regions: Warsaw (Mazovia - the center of Poland), Bialystok (Podlasie - the east of Poland), Cracow (Malopolska - the south of Poland), Poznan (Wielkopolska - the west of Poland) and Gdansk (Pomerania - the north of Poland).

The time period was chosen so that it covered an interval of rapid changes in real estate prices (a housing bubble) and their subsequent relaxation to the equilibrium state. Firstly, a multi-dimensional analysis which took into account the Chebyshev distance was employed. This helped to conduct an analysis of the correlation of price changes over time, which revealed their concurrence and, moreover, showed specific propagation delays to external stimuli, and hence could be a measure of the market’s inertia. The degree of integration of the local markets under study changed only slightly over time; therefore, a thesis can be put forth in regard to the interrelation of local real estate markets, imagined as a system of communicating vessels. In the second stage, the damped harmonic oscillator model was employed to describe the observed evolution of real estate prices. This study exhibited high inertia in real estate markets, manifested during rapid structural changes in the system’s state occurring in conditions far from equilibrium. In long-term evolution, the pace of change is slow enough for the systems to remain close to equilibrium

Abstract

Real estate market can be thought of as an open, dynamic system. It means that it is able to exchange stimuli with other open systems, and that its state evolves in a way that might be described mathematically. It turns out that two main processes contribute to the overall evolution of the real estate market: long-term, predictable evolution, interrupted by sharp changes of catastrophic origin. In this picture, national housing funds play an important role in supporting the housing finance: on one hand they could either stimulate or suppress the real estate market influencing the availability of the mortgage credit, but on the other hand, they could also help to stabilize prices. In this study, an attempt was made to determine the degree of relationship between the volume of mortgage financing from national housing funds and the dynamics of real estate prices.

Abstract

A nanoscale investigation of three-dimensional (3-D) surface micromorphology of archetypical N, N0- bis (n-etyl) x:y, dicyanoperylene- 3, 4:9, 10 bis (dicarboximide) (PDI8-CN2) thin films on H-Si substrates, which are applicable in n-type semiconducting compounds, has been performed by using fractal analysis. In addition, surface texture characteristics of the PDI8-CN2 thin films have been characterized by using atomic force microscopy (AFM) operated in tapping-mode in the air. These analyses revealed that all samples can be described well as fractal structures at nanometer scale and their three dimensional surface texture could be implemented in both graphical models and computer simulations.