The observation of price movements on the real estate market is an extremely difficult task as we have to face problems belonging to two spheres. The first of them is the specific nature of real estate as marketable objects and of the real estate market itself. The second one is the character and quality of data on real estate transaction prices. In this article the author, based on an empirical study, attempts to prove that even in a single segment of a local real estate market the prices in individual sub-segments can fluctuate with different intensity. The range of price movements can be so vast that it seems pointless to apply a single averaged price index for the whole segment, and usually that is what analysts do.
There are many reasons for the fact that reliable property indices are difficult to calculate. Even though, in theory, there are several acknowledged methods of their determination, this task poses problems of various nature in practice. These problems grow when the data sets are limited, which is the case on small property markets where the number of transactions are low. The paper is an attempt to compute property price indices on the basis of a statistically smoothed series of average unit prices of residential properties sold on a small market, exemplified by the county of Łobez. Additionally, the paper discusses the problems that have emerged over the course of the study, as well as the obtained results, as viewed in the context of the general situation on the property market.
Property price indexes are difficult to determine both from the substantive and technical/organizational points of view. Various methods of constructing such indexes have been developed in order to overcome these difficulties. To this end, the author compares two types of indexes: hedonic indexes and ones termed filtered for the purpose of this particular paper. Hedonic index values come from Polish National Bank (NBP) publications, while the filtered indexes have been computed with the use of the 4253H filter on the basis of the NBP announcements on mean property prices. Thus, the results are comparable as both types of indexes are derived from the same input databases. The analysis covers both the comparison of the obtained results as well as a discussion of substantive and technical problems encountered when building the property price indexes.
Property prices vary on different local real estate markets. Even considering only the largest cities, great disproportions between average unit prices can easily be observed. This problem involves all segments of the real estate market, yet, because of the social & economic importance of housing properties, it takes on special importance on the apartment market. In Warsaw - the capital of Poland and the largest Polish city - prices exceed PLN 10,000 per 1m2 in the best locations and the average price at the end of 2016 in the entire city came to over PLN 7,500 per 1m2. At the sme time, however, average prices in other agglomerations, such as Łódź or Katowice, were equal to approx. PLN 3,500 per 1m2. It is only natural to ask what factors, especially social & economic, contribute to such considerable differences in house prices. This article addresses a group of potential factors underlying the prices of apartments, which have been studied statistically in correlation with average unit prices of apartments in chosen cities.
Residential property price indices can serve as a useful tool in the practice of real property market analysts, investment advisers, property developers, certified property appraisers, estate agents and managers. They can also be applied in property price valorization in specific legal positions. The Polish Act on Real Estate Management puts an obligation on the President of the Central Statistical Office to announce real property price indices, but the CSO fails to fulfill this obligation. The author’s rationale for this article is to contribute to works on rules of how to build property price indices. Presented within are the results of research on determining the price indices of such types of residential property as: a part of a building constituting a separate property and strata titles in housing cooperatives. The flats were divided into categories by floor area and by their location in 16 voivodeship capitals. The major purpose of the study is to prove that the prices of flats of different floor area change at different rates. Consequently, it seems worth considering whether a more detailed segmentation of the real estate market would be worthwhile for the sake of more accurate real property price indicators.
There are several acknowledged methods for determining residential property price indices. However, all of them have their drawbacks and advantages and reflect the averaged real movements of prices with varying accuracy. The paper attempts to answer the question: How faithfully do indices based on asking prices reflect the movements of traded prices? As a result we will find out whether, in the situation when property price indices cannot be determined, asking price based indices can be used instead. The paper specifies theoretical and practical aspects of constructing residential property price indices on the basis of asking and traded prices. It also contains an empirical analysis of these two index types.
The specific character of the real estate market is the reason why observations of transaction prices seen as statistical variables are taken in a non-standard way. In the traditional approach each time period or specific moments of time are attributed with one observation of a studied variable per one object. In the case of the real estate market, this is not possible since transactions relate to different objects, i.e., properties, and occur at irregular, or even random, moments. This is why traditional methods used to examine the dynamics of economic phenomena must be adapted to specific conditions on the real estate market. Keeping that in mind, the aim of this paper is to adapt classical statistical examination methods of dynamics to specific conditions of the real estate market followed by the actual examination of the dynamics of real estate prices in three sub-segments of the housing market in Szczecin. On its basis, the authors evaluate various methods of examining real estate price dynamics in terms of their applicability in real estate appraisal procedures and, in a broader perspective, present characteristic phenomena that can be observed on the real estate market.