We measure a systemic risk faced by European banking sectors using the CoVaR measure. We propose the conditional value-at-risk for measuring a spillover risk which demonstrates the bilateral relation between the tail risks of two financial institutions. The aim of the study is to estimate the contribution systemic risk of the bank i in the analyzed banking sector of a country in conditions of its insolvency. The study included commercial banks from 8 emerging markets from Europe, which gave a total of 40 banks, traded on the public market, which provided a market valuation of the bank’s capital. The conclusions are that the CoVaR seems to be a better measure for systemic risk in the banking sector than the VaR, which is more individual. And banks in developing countries in Europe do not provide significant risk for the banking sector as a whole. But it must be taken into account that some individuals that may find objectionable. Our results hence tend to a practical use of the CoVaR for supervisory purposes.
Research background: Motivation for this study is the rapid development of conglomerate banking stimulated by the synergy between the traditional and parallel investment activity of banks before the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Existing studies do not answer the question about the positive influence of diversification on bank stability. They state that the combination of lending and non-interest income allows benefits to be derived from risk diversification. However, on the other hand they emphasise that non-interest and interest incomes are strongly correlated, which does not bring positive effects from diversification.
Purpose: Scientific problem aimed to be solved is to verify how the diversification of activities in commercial banks into non-interest products (i.e. trading, securities-based investment activities, and derivatives) brings positive effects such as income stabilization and risk reduction. We examine the implications of banks’ risk adjusted ROA that manifest themselves as spreading and growing instability.
Research methodology: We use a panel regression model, through a dataset that covers 777 international banks, in 91 selected countries of the world, spanning the period of 1996–2015.
Results: We document that the diversification of a bank’s operations is varied and depends on a bank’s characteristics, including asset size.
Novelty: The study contributes to the on-going discussion on the separation of retail and investment banks with a view to enhancing their profit stability.
The complex connections, spillovers and feedbacks of the global financial crisis remind how important it is to improve the analysis of risk modeling. This article introduces a new framework for mitigating systemic risk by using a risk-adjusted balance sheet approach. In this regard, the analysis of individual banks in Poland shows potential risk which could threaten all the financial system. Traditional banking models do not adequately measure risk position of financial institutions and cannot be used to understand risk within and between balance sheets in the financial sector. A fundamental subject is that accounting balance sheets do not indicate risk exposures, which are forward-looking. The paper concludes new directions for measuring systemic risk by using Merton’s model. It shows how risk management tools can be applied in new ways to measure and analyze systemic risk in the Polish banking system.