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  • Author: Rafal Wolski x
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The Influence of Negative Beta Assets on the Empirical SML in the Polish Capital Market

The classical approach to the SML assumes that it is a straight line, which means that an investor is willing to accept lower return on the negative beta assets than on the risk-free assets. However, Cloninger, Waller, Bendeck and Revere (2004) challenged this commonly accepted approach. The author of the paper decided to verify the approach using empirical data for years 1999-2006 obtained from the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Finance theoreticians believe that the SML is linear, which means that an investor buying negative beta assets is willing to accept lower return than in the case of a risk-free asset. Cloninger et al. (2004) formulated a hypothesis stating that the SML is V-shaped and that it is not a straight line. It was concluded that an investor had no reason to accept lower return of the negative beta assets; quite the contrary, the investor would expect the same return as on the positive beta ones. The author of this article performed an investigation for the Polish market, taking advantage of companies quoted at the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The investigation demonstrated that between 1999 and 2006, the SML had a V-like shape and thus the research hypothesis formulated in the article was positively verified.

Abstract

The integration of financial markets is an ongoing process throughout the world. Research shows that, from Australia through Europe to the United States, the capital and real estate markets are integrating, influencing each other. Although this process seems obvious, only research can show whether it actually occurs. Identifying these relationships is important for analyzing the entire market. Many methods, such as estimating the cost of equity, have been developed with the stock market in mind. Meanwhile, real estate valuation requires the cost of equity. Market integration is the rationale for using equity market methods on the real estate market.

Aim of the work - the research is aimed at verifying whether there is cointegration between the secondary housing market and the stock market. A research hypothesis was put forward: the stock market and secondary housing market are integrated.

Research methodology - the study used co-integration analysis using the Engle-Granger test. The study was conducted in the period from the third quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2018.

Result - The tests carried out showed the existence of co-integration in one out of 36 cases for the explanatory variable - the delayed WIG index and the explained variable in the average price of residential real estate on the secondary market for the 7 largest Polish cities.

Originality / Value - demonstrating the co-integration of markets justifies the use of analytical methods developed for stock markets on real estate markets. The research has no equivalent study on the Polish market. Similar analyses were carried out, but not for the stock and real estate market.

Abstract

The stock exchange is considered one of the most important financial institutions in the market economy. The stock market reacts to the state of the economy almost immediately, and, in the end, the quotations of companies affect the state of other markets. The author decided to look at companies from the WIG Real Estate index as important entities shaping the real estate market. When comparing the situation on the capital market with the situation on the residential real estate market, one could, building an appropriate model, conclude how much these markets interact. Purpose - The purpose of the article is to present the links between two important markets, the capital market, with real estate companies as its representatives, and the secondary housing market. In order to achieve the goal, a research hypothesis was formulated: the economic situation on the real estate companies market will be reflected in the situation on the secondary housing market. Design/methodology/approach - Cross-sectional regression analysis was used in the study. Using the data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the National Bank of Poland, regression models where price changes in the secondary housing market are explained by the quotations of real estate companies and selected stock exchange indices were built. The study was carried out from the first quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2017. Findings - Two models were built in which the rates of return on investments in real estate companies explain the price changes in the secondary housing market in a statistically significant way. Thus, the research hypothesis was positively verified, showing that the real estate market and the stock market of real estate companies are interrelated. Originality/Value - The alternative method of analyzing the real estate market can be considered as the original value of the presented results. A demonstration of the connections between both markets allows us to validate the methods used on the stock market to analyze the real estate market. An example application is the use of methods for estimating the cost of capital from the stock market in the real estate market.

Polish Pension Funds Investment - is There A Place For Real Property in A Portfolio?

The pension fund investments should be characterised by a long term, low risk and profitability, which implicates the necessity of portfolio diversification. In general, pension funds having regular long-term contributions should develop the long-term policy and its effects would be responsible for the economic position of their future beneficiaries. The ways of capital allocation are also critical in terms of the entire economy, as a constant flow of financial resources provided by pension funds stimulates the activity of its recipients. The typical assets in a pension fund's portfolio in the developed economy are stocks, bonds and real property owing to low (negative) correlation between these assets and their diversified potential. The legal investment limits imposed on the Polish pension funds exclude direct investment in real property, which is responsible - in the authors' opinion - for the lower level of diversification and hinders the risk reduction. The authors analyze the Polish pension fund portfolios focusing on risk and return levels. The aim of the study is to find the answer to the important question about the results of hypothetically added real property to the portfolios of pension funds.

Abstract

Some authors suggest that the use of standard deviation as a measure of total risk for returns on real estate leads to risk overestimation, as the classical Markowitz model does not account for the skewness of financial data, thus making the results unreliable. According to the available literature, risk calculated on the basis of standard semideviation may actually better reflect the nature of property investment. However, in this context, the question of whether or not this measure will lead to risk underestimation at a time of a downturn in the real estate market, resulting in inadequate investment decisions aggravating investor losses arises. Therefore, the present paper presents portfolios constructed using either classical risk measures or measures based on “downside deviations” of rates of return. The results of investment in these portfolios are analyzed.

Abstract

Studies investigating the relation between risk and return occupy an important place in the discussion about the effectiveness of investing in real estate. A review of the available studies shows that real estate investments are less profitable than stocks, but in terms of risk and return, are usually the best option. This worldwide regularity may not necessarily be presented in Poland, as the Polish market is not fully fledged yet. The analysis presented in this article was performed with a view to reducing a research gap resulting from the lack of comprehensive Polish studies in this field. In the article, data spanning the years from 2006 to 2016 are examined by means of descriptive statistics, measures of risk, and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) to determine which of the following investment vehicles - bonds, real estate or stocks - offer the best risk-return ratio. The article has two parts. The analytical part is a review of studies on risk measurement methods and of earlier studies investigating risk and return by a class of assets (particularly real estate). In the empirical part, assets are compared with the use of statistical methods. The results of the risk-return analysis point to the money market as the best option for investors. Stocks and real estate ranked second and third, respectively.

Abstract

The residential real estate market is thought to show a tendency for wide fluctuations in prices, as a result of which price bubbles appear. This element of risk has a direct bearing on investors interested in speculation and those seeking to meet their housing needs. Wide fluctuations in the values of real estate affect the investors’ financial situation in many ways, by determining the possibility of meeting one’s housing needs, reducing or sometimes raising creditworthiness, and by increasing investment risk measured by volatility. Omitting the obvious social dimension of the residential real estate market and concentrating on its financial aspects, the author of the article analyses to what degree wide swings in prices can be recognized as specific to this market. To this end, the volatility of prices in the stock market and in the secondary housing market in Poland is compared. An analysis is performed to establish which of them has higher average volatility measures or rates of return, i.e. which of them is more profitable or secure for investors. Statistical tests are used to find out whether average rates of return or measures of risk are equal or different between the two markets. The results of the research show that the secondary housing market and the stock market differ concerning cumulative average rates of return and standard deviations. In the first of them, they are respectively higher and lower.

Abstract

The beta coefficient is one of the most popular indices used in contemporary finances. Despite the fact that there are justified doubts connected with its application, it is currently difficult to imagine a situation in which the cost of capital would be calculated without the use of the CAPM model. Thus, an attempt at answering the question whether and to what degree beta may be used in the real estate market constitutes an interesting problem. This is because on the one hand, the formal structure suggests that beta should not be used for assets which are not included in the benchmark but, on the other hand, such a benchmark should, at least theoretically, contain all market assets. Therefore, a decision was made to have a closer look at this issue, with the analysis of the possibility of using the beta coefficient in the residential real estate market set as the objective. Using the database of prices in the direct real estate investment created by the NBP, a comparison was conducted with regard to features of undertaken investments on the basis of an analysis of systematic risk calculated using selected indices available on the Polish market.

Abstract

Construction companies are important economic actors in every country. Their activity translates into employment levels, tax revenues, and the provision of new spaces that require further expenditure on equipment, thus stimulating consumer spending. The activity of construction companies depends on the demand for space, the state of the economy and the financial market. Undoubtedly economic disturbances in the form of a recession have a significant impact on construction activity. The authors were interested in whether the boom and recession in the selected countries were similarly reflected in the activity of construction companies. In particular, they were interested in residential construction activity, although it was not possible to select companies that would only deal with residential construction. The authors selected four post-socialist countries and two countries which are called winners of the integration process due to their enormous economic growth. The authors outline the residential construction and construction sector results and activity in the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Spain and Ireland, and draw a wider picture for analyses of construction companies’ financial results for the years 2003-2012. This period was chosen because it covered periods of both boom and bust. All enterprises were part of the sector denoted in the Amadeus database as primary code: Eurostat NACE Rev. 2 with codes: 41 - Construction of buildings: 4110 - Development of building projects, 4120 - Construction of residential and non-residential buildings. Due to the specificity of the construction sector the authors divided the surveyed enterprises into two groups – all companies; and only large and very large companies. It was not possible to separate data specifically with respect to residential construction companies.

Abstract

The economy is subject to periodic changes in activity, which is apparent in the financial situation of households and enterprises. However, the recent economic crisis has been particularly severe. After the great increase in economic activity, which in many countries was connected with the boom in the real estate market, it experienced a sudden turn for the worse, including the broadly understood construction sector. This contributed to a slowdown of the growth rate, or even a permanent economic downturn. The authors have undertaken an analysis of the situation in the construction sector and the condition of residential real estate markets in selected Central European countries, and next, on the basis of a database on the financial situation of selected construction companies constructing buildings in those countries, searched for an answer to the question of how much the construction sector and the analyzed enterprises changed their activity in the recent years. For the purpose of the analysis, a database of over 340 entities from the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary was created. The work is of a comparative nature, which allows the scale of the processes studied in the individual countries to be identified.