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  • Author: Radosław Kurach x
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Does Risk Aversion Matter for Foreign Asset Holdings of Pension Funds – The Case of Poland

Abstract

In this study we explore the issue of foreign assets in mandatory pension funds portfolios. First we provide an overview of the regulatory policies regarding international assets and indicate the externalitieswhich may account for the observed differences among the CEE states. Then, taking the perspective of portfolio theory, we run a simulation study to measure the diversification benefits that may be achieved by greater international asset allocation. By applying the specific constraints and exchange rate volatility to our optimization procedure, the study reflects the perspective of the Polish pensioner. However, the findings regarding risk aversion intensity and the discussed directions of further research should be of a universal character.

Open access
The PE Ratio and the Predicted Earnings Growth – the Case of Poland

Abstract

We examine the components of equity returns on the Polish capital market. To analyse the underlying complexity of returns we took into consideration the model designed by Leibowitz (1999). This model captures three factors: dividend yield, expected growth in earnings and expected change in price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. We applied this model to analyse the average discount/premium not only to particular shares but to market averages as well. Firstly, we examined the variation of PE across the companies (as adapted from Penman (1996)) to analyse the average rate of return and their striking distance of individual stocks from a ‘normal’ level. Then we checked the transitory earnings in the portfolios of high PE, whereby a fall in current earnings relative to sustainable level of earnings leads to a transitory high PE ratio. We expect that the effect of transience in current year earnings can be significant. Lastly, we analysed the individual companies in order to check what percentage of companies give a “correct” signal about future prospects.

Open access