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Elementary Introduction to Stochastic Finance in Discrete Time

This article gives an elementary introduction to stochastic finance (in discrete time). A formalization of random variables is given and some elements of Borel sets are considered. Furthermore, special functions (for buying a present portfolio and the value of a portfolio in the future) and some statements about the relation between these functions are introduced. For details see: [8] (p. 185), [7] (pp. 12, 20), [6] (pp. 3-6).

Borel-Cantelli Lemma

This article is about the Borel-Cantelli Lemma in probability theory. Necessary definitions and theorems are given in [10] and [7].

Summary

We start proceeding with the stopping time theory in discrete time with the help of the Mizar system [1], [4]. We prove, that the expression for two stopping times k1 and k2 not always implies a stopping time (k1 + k2) (see Theorem 6 in this paper). If you want to get a stopping time, you have to cut the function e.g. (k1 + k2) ⋂ T (see [2, p. 283 Remark 6.14]). Next we introduce the stopping time in continuous time. We are focused on the intervals [0, r] where r ∈ ℝ. We prove, that for I = [0, r] or I = [0,+∞[ the set {A ⋂ I : A ∈ Borel-Sets} is a σ-algebra of I (see Definition 6 in this paper, and more general given in [3, p.12 1.8e]). The interval I can be considered as a timeline from now to some point in the future. This set is necessary to define our next lemma. We prove the existence of the σ-algebra of the τ -past, where τ is a stopping time (see Definition 11 in this paper and [6, p.187, Definition 9.19]). If τ1 and τ2 are stopping times with τ1 is smaller or equal than τ2 we can prove, that the σ-algebra of the τ1-past is a subset of the σ-algebra of the τ2-past (see Theorem 9 in this paper and [6, p.187 Lemma 9.21]). Suppose, that you want to use Lemma 9.21 with some events, that never occur, see as a comparison the paper [5] and the example for ST(1)={+∞} in the Summary. We don’t have the element +1 in our above-mentioned time intervals [0, r[ and [0,+1[. This is only possible if we construct a new σ-algebra on ℝ {−∞,+∞}. This construction is similar to the Borel-Sets and we call this σ-algebra extended Borel sets (see Definition 13 in this paper and [3, p. 21]). It can be proved, that {+∞} is an Element of extended Borel sets (see Theorem 21 in this paper). Now we use the interval [0,+∞] as a basis. We construct a σ-algebra on [0,+∞] similar to the book ([3, p. 12 18e]), see Definition 18 in this paper, and call it extended Borel subsets. We prove for stopping times with this given σ-algebra, that for τ1 and τ2 are stopping times with τ1 is smaller or equal than τ2 we have the σ-algebra of the τ1-past is a subset of the σ-algebra of the τ2-past, see Theorem 25 in this paper. It is obvious, that {+∞} 2 extended Borel subsets. In general, Lemma 9.21 is important for the proof of the Optional Sampling Theorem, see 10.11 Proof of (i) in [6, p. 203].

Summary

First we give an implementation in Mizar [2] basic important definitions of stochastic finance, i.e. filtration ([9], pp. 183 and 185), adapted stochastic process ([9], p. 185) and predictable stochastic process ([6], p. 224). Second we give some concrete formalization and verification to real world examples.

In article [8] we started to define random variables for a similar presentation to the book [6]. Here we continue this study. Next we define the stochastic process. For further definitions based on stochastic process we implement the definition of filtration.

To get a better understanding we give a real world example and connect the statements to the theorems. Other similar examples are given in [10], pp. 143-159 and in [12], pp. 110-124. First we introduce sets which give informations referring to today (Ωnow, Def.6), tomorrow (Ωfut1 , Def.7) and the day after tomorrow (Ωfut2 , Def.8). We give an overview for some events in the σ-algebras Ωnow, Ωfut1 and Ωfut2, see theorems (22) and (23).

The given events are necessary for creating our next functions. The implementations take the form of: Ωnow ⊂ Ωfut1 ⊂ Ωfut2 see theorem (24). This tells us growing informations from now to the future 1=now, 2=tomorrow, 3=the day after tomorrow.

We install functions f : {1, 2, 3, 4} → ℝ as following:

f1 : x → 100, ∀x ∈ dom f, see theorem (36),

f2 : x → 80, for x = 1 or x = 2 and

f2 : x → 120, for x = 3 or x = 4, see theorem (37),

f3 : x → 60, for x = 1, f3 : x → 80, for x = 2 and

f3 : x → 100, for x = 3, f3 : x → 120, for x = 4 see theorem (38).

These functions are real random variable: f1 over Ωnow, f2 over Ωfut1, f3 over Ωfut2, see theorems (46), (43) and (40). We can prove that these functions can be used for giving an example for an adapted stochastic process. See theorem (49).

We want to give an interpretation to these functions: suppose you have an equity A which has now (= w1) the value 100. Tomorrow A changes depending which scenario occurs − e.g. another marketing strategy. In scenario 1 (= w11) it has the value 80, in scenario 2 (= w12) it has the value 120. The day after tomorrow A changes again. In scenario 1 (= w111) it has the value 60, in scenario 2 (= w112) the value 80, in scenario 3 (= w121) the value 100 and in scenario 4 (= w122) it has the value 120. For a visualization refer to the tree:

The sets w1,w11,w12,w111,w112,w121,w122 which are subsets of {1, 2, 3, 4}, see (22), tell us which market scenario occurs. The functions tell us the values to the relevant market scenario:

For a better understanding of the definition of the random variable and the relation to the functions refer to [7], p. 20. For the proof of certain sets as σ-fields refer to [7], pp. 10-11 and [9], pp. 1-2.

This article is the next step to the arbitrage opportunity. If you use for example a simple probability measure, refer, for example to literature [3], pp. 28-34, [6], p. 6 and p. 232 you can calculate whether an arbitrage exists or not. Note, that the example given in literature [3] needs 8 instead of 4 informations as in our model. If we want to code the first 3 given time points into our model we would have the following graph, see theorems (47), (44) and (41):

The function for the “Call-Option” is given in literature [3], p. 28. The function is realized in Def.5. As a background, more examples for using the definition of filtration are given in [9], pp. 185-188.

Summary

We consider special events of Borel sets with the aim to prove, that the set of the irrational numbers is an event of the Borel sets. The set of the natural numbers, the set of the integer numbers and the set of the rational numbers are countable, so we can use the literature [10] (pp. 78-81) as a basis for the similar construction of the proof. Next we prove, that different sets can construct the Borel sets [16] (pp. 9-10). Literature [16] (pp. 9-10) and [11] (pp. 11-12) gives an overview, that there exists some other sets for this construction. Last we define special functions as random variables for stochastic finance in discrete time. The relevant functions are implemented in the article [15], see [9] (p. 4). The aim is to construct events and random variables, which can easily be used with a probability measure. See as an example theorems (10) and (14) in [20]. Then the formalization is more similar to the presentation used in the book [9]. As a background, further literatures is [3] (pp. 9-12), [13] (pp. 17-20), and [8] (pp.32-35).

Summary

Using the Mizar system [], [], we start to show, that the Call-Option, the Put-Option and the Straddle (more generally defined as in the literature) are random variables ([], p. 15), see (Def. 1) and (Def. 2). Next we construct and prove the simple random variables ([], p. 14) in (Def. 8).

In the third section, we introduce the definition of arbitrage opportunity, see (Def. 12). Next we show, that this definition can be characterized in a different way (Lemma 1.3. in [], p. 5), see (17). In our formalization for Lemma 1.3 we make the assumption that ϕ is a sequence of real numbers (there are only finitely many valued of interest, the values of ϕ in Rd). For the definition of almost sure with probability 1 see p. 6 in []. Last we introduce the risk-neutral probability (Definition 1.4, p. 6 in []), here see (Def. 16).

We give an example in real world: Suppose you have some assets like bonds (riskless assets). Then we can fix our price for these bonds with x for today and x · (1 + r) for tomorrow, r is the interest rate. So we simply assume, that in every possible market evolution of tomorrow we have a determinated value. Then every probability measure of Ωfut 1 is a risk-neutral measure, see (21). This example shows the existence of some risk-neutral measure. If you find more than one of them, you can determine – with an additional conidition to the probability measures – whether a market model is arbitrage free or not (see Theorem 1.6. in [], p. 6.)

A short graph for (21):

Suppose we have a portfolio with many (in this example infinitely many) assets. For asset d we have the price π(d) for today, and the price π(d) (1 + r) for tomorrow with some interest rate r > 0.

Let G be a sequence of random variables on Ωfut 1, Borel sets. So you have many functions fk : {1, 2, 3, 4}→ R with G(k) = fk and fk is a random variable of Ωfut 1, Borel sets. For every fk we have fk(w) = π(k)·(1+r) for w {1, 2, 3, 4}.

TodayTomorrowonlyonescenario{w21={1,2}w22={3,4}foralld𝕅holdsπ(d){fd(w)=G(d)(w)=π(d)(1+r),ww21orww22,r>0istheinterestrate.

Here, every probability measure of Ωfut 1 is a risk-neutral measure.

Summary

We start with the definition of stopping time according to [], p.283. We prove, that different definitions for stopping time can coincide. We give examples of stopping time using constant-functions or functions defined with the operator max or min (defined in [], pp.37–38). Finally we give an example with some given filtration. Stopping time is very important for stochastic finance. A stopping time is the moment, where a certain event occurs ([], p.372) and can be used together with stochastic processes ([], p.283). Look at the following example: we install a function ST: {1,2,3,4} → {0, 1, 2} ∪ {+∞}, we define:

a. ST(1)=1, ST(2)=1, ST(3)=2, ST(4)=2.

b. The set {0,1,2} consists of time points: 0=now,1=tomorrow,2=the day after tomorrow.

We can prove:

c. {w, where w is Element of Ω: ST.w=0}=∅ & {w, where w is Element of Ω: ST.w=1}={1,2} & {w, where w is Element of Ω: ST.w=2}={3,4} and

ST is a stopping time.

We use a function Filt as Filtration of {0,1,2}, Σ where Filt(0)=Ωnow, Filt(1)=Ωfut 1 and Filt(2)=Ωfut 2. From a., b. and c. we know that:

d. {w, where w is Element of Ω: ST.w=0} in Ωnow and

{w, where w is Element of Ω: ST.w=1} in Ωfut 1 and

{w, where w is Element of Ω: ST.w=2} in Ωfut 2.

The sets in d. are events, which occur at the time points 0(=now), 1(=tomorrow) or 2(=the day after tomorrow), see also [], p.371. Suppose we have ST(1)=+∞, then this means that for 1 the corresponding event never occurs.

As an interpretation for our installed functions consider the given adapted stochastic process in the article [].

ST(1)=1 means, that the given element 1 in {1,2,3,4} is stopped in 1 (=tomorrow). That tells us, that we have to look at the value f 2(1) which is equal to 80. The same argumentation can be applied for the element 2 in {1,2,3,4}.

ST(3)=2 means, that the given element 3 in {1,2,3,4} is stopped in 2 (=the day after tomorrow). That tells us, that we have to look at the value f 3(3) which is equal to 100.

ST(4)=2 means, that the given element 4 in {1,2,3,4} is stopped in 2 (=the day after tomorrow). That tells us, that we have to look at the value f 3(4) which is equal to 120.

In the real world, these functions can be used for questions like: when does the share price exceed a certain limit? (see [], p.372).