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Pavla Pekárová and Dana Halmová

Snow Water Equivalent Measurement and Simulation in Microbasins with Different Vegetation Cover

This paper deals with the formation of snowmelt-driven floods in two experimental microbasins located in Slovakia's highlands (300-400 m a.s.l) near the town of Považská Bystrica, Slovakia in March 2006. The first basin (Rybárik) encompasses an area of 0.119 km2 and is used primarily for agriculture; while the Lesný basin with its catchment area of 0.0864 km2 is characterized as a forested land. The maximal specific outflow from the Rybárik basin was observed on March 28, 2006, with 281.3 l s-1 km-2, peaking at 3 p.m. with 422 l s-1 km-2. In the Lesný basin, the maximum outflow was observed on March 29, 2006, with its peak of 523 l s-1 km-2 at noon. In the second part the long-term trend of snow water equivalent (SWE) modeled by the HBV-light rainfall-runoff model in the Rybárik and Lesný microbasins were evaluated. After the model verification, the daily values of SWE for the period 1965/66-2005/06 were calculated for Rybarik and Lesný microbasins. From the results it follows, that, after a temporal decline in the maxima of snow depth and of SWE in the 1990s, SWE started to increase in 2002 again. The historically highest values of SWE were simulated in both experimental microbasins in the winter season of 2005/06.

Open access

Pavla Pekárová, Milan Onderka, Ján Pekár, Peter Rončák and Pavol Miklánek

Prediction of Water Quality in the Danube River Under extreme Hydrological and Temperature Conditions

One of the requirements imposed by the Water Framework Directive (WFD, 2000/60/EC) is to analyze and predict how quality of surface waters will evolve in the future. In assessing the development of a stream's pollution one must consider all sources of pollution and understand how water quality evolves over time. Flow and water temperature regime of a stream or river are the main factors controlling the extent to which deterioration of a stream's water quality can propagate under constant input from pollution sources. In addition, there is ever increasing public concern about the state of the aquatic environment. Decision makers and scientists involved in water management call for studies proposing simulation models of water quality under extreme natural hydrologic and climatic scenarios. Also, human impact on water resources remain an issue for discussion, especially when it comes to sustainability of water resources with respect to water quality and ecosystem health. In the present study we investigate the long-term trends in water quality variables of the Danube River at Bratislava, Slovakia (Chl-a, Ca, EC, SO2-, Cl-, O2, BOD5, N-tot, PO4-P, NO3-N, NO2-N, etc.), for the period 1991-2005. Several SARIMA models were tested for the long-term prediction of selected pollutant concentrations under various flow and water temperature conditions. In order to create scenarios of selected water quality variables with prediction for 12 months ahead, three types of possible hydrologic and water temperature conditions were defined: i) average conditions - median flows and water temperature; ii) low flows and high water temperature; and iii) high flows and low water temperature. These conditions were derived for each month using daily observations of water temperature and daily discharge readings taken in the Danube at Bratislava over the period 1931-2005 in the form of percentiles (1th-percentile, median, 99th-percentile). Once having derived these extreme-case scenarios, we used selected Box-Jenkins models (with two regressors - discharge and water temperature) to simulate the extreme monthly water quality variables. The impact of natural and man-made changes in a stream's hydrology on water quality can be readily well simulated by means of autoregressive models.

Open access

Pavla Pekárová, Dana Halmová, Veronika Bačová Mitková, Pavol Miklánek, Ján Pekár and Peter Škoda

Abstract

In this paper we focused on the history of floods and extreme flood frequency analysis of the upper Danube River at Bratislava. Firstly, we briefly describe the flood marks found on the Danube River in the region of Bratislava, Slovakia, and provide an account of the floods’ consequences. Secondly, we analyzed the annual maximum discharge series for the period 1876-2012, including the most recent flood of June 2013. Thirdly, we compare the values of T-year design discharge computed with and without incorporating the historic floods (floods of the years 1501, 1682, and 1787 into the 138-year series of annual discharge peaks). There are unfortunately only a few historic flood marks preserved in Bratislava, but there are very important and old marks in neighbouring Hainburg and other Austrian cities upstream to Passau. The calculated T-year maximum discharge of the Danube at Bratislava for the period 1876-2010 without and with historic flood values have been compared. Our analysis showed that without incorporating the historic floods from the years 1501, 1682, and 1787 the 1000-year discharge calculated only with data from the instrumented period 1876- 2013 is 14,188 m3 s-1, and it is lower compared to the 1000-year discharge of 14,803 m3 s-1 when the three historic floods are included. In general, the T-year discharge is higher throughout the whole spectrum of T-year discharges (10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500-year discharge) when the three historic floods are included. Incorporating historic floods into a time series of maximum annual discharge seems to exert a significant effect on the estimates of low probability floods. This has important implications for flood managements and estimation of flood design discharge.

Open access

Pavla Pekárová, Aleš Svoboda, Pavol Miklánek, Peter Škoda, Dana Halmová and Ján Pekár

Estimating Flash Flood Peak Discharge in Gidra and Parná Basin: Case Study for the 7-8 June 2011 Flood

We analyzed the runoff and its temporal distribution during the catastrophic flood events on river Gidra (32.9 km2) and Parná (37.86 km2) of the 7th June 2011. The catchments are located in the Small Carpathian Mountains, western Slovakia. Direct measurements and evaluation of the peak discharge values after such extreme events are emphasized in the paper including exceedance probabilities of peak flows and of their causal flash rainfall events. In the second part of the paper, plausible modeling mode is presented, using the NLC (Non Linear Cascade) rainfall-runoff model. Several hypothetical extreme flood events were simulated by the NLC model for both rivers. Also the flood runoff volumes are evaluated as basic information on the natural or artificial catchment storage.

Open access

Veronika Bačová Mitková, Pavla Pekárová, Pavol Miklánek and Ján Pekár

Abstract

The problem of understand natural processes as factors that restrict, limit or even jeopardize the interests of human society is currently of great concern. The natural transformation of flood waves is increasingly affected and disturbed by artificial interventions in river basins. The Danube River basin is an area of high economic and water management importance. Channel training can result in changes in the transformation of flood waves and different hydrographic shapes of flood waves compared with the past. The estimation and evolution of the transformation of historical flood waves under recent river conditions is only possible by model simulations. For this purpose a nonlinear reservoir cascade model was constructed. The NLN-Danube nonlinear reservoir river model was used to simulate the transformation of flood waves in four sections of the Danube River from Kienstock (Austria) to Štúrovo (Slovakia) under relatively recent river reach conditions. The model was individually calibrated for two extreme events in August 2002 and June 2013. Some floods that occurred on the Danube during the period of 1991–2002 were used for the validation of the model. The model was used to identify changes in the transformational properties of the Danube channel in the selected river reach for some historical summer floods (1899, 1954 1965 and 1975). Finally, a simulation of flood wave propagation of the most destructive Danube flood of the last millennium (August 1501) is discussed.

Open access

Pavla Pekárová, Branislav Pramuk, Dana Halmová, Pavol Miklánek, Stevan Prohaska and Ján Pekár

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to study spatial and temporal changes in the magnitude, duration and frequency of high flows in the Danube basin. A hydrological series of the mean daily discharges from 20 gauging stations (operated minimally since 1930) were used for the analysis of changes in the daily discharges. The high flow events were classified into three classes: high flow pulses, small floods, and large floods. For each year and for each class, the means of the peak discharges, the number and duration of events, and the rate of changes of the rising and falling limbs of the waves were determined.

The long-term trends of the annual time series obtained were analyzed and statistically evaluated. The long-term high flow changes were found to be different in three individual high flow classes. The duration of the category of high flow pulses is decreasing at 19 stations on the Danube and is statistically significant at the Linz, Vienna, Bratislava and Orsova stations. The frequency of the high flow pulses is increasing in all 20 stations. Also, the rising and falling rates of the high flow pulse category are increasing at the majority of the stations. The long-term trends of the selected characteristics of the small floods are very similar to the trends of the high flow pulses, i.e., the duration of small floods is decreasing, and their mean number per year is increasing. In the category of large floods the changes were not proved.

Open access

Miriam Fendeková, Pavla Pekárová, Marián Fendek, Ján Pekár and Peter Škoda

Abstract

Changes in runoff parameters are very important for Slovakia, where stream-flow discharges, being supplied by precipitation and groundwater runoff, are preferentially influenced by climatic conditions. Therefore, teleconnections between runoff parameters, climate parameters and global atmospheric drivers such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Pacific Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar activity were studied in the Nitra River Basin, Slovakia. Research was mostly based on records of 80 years (1931-2010) for discharges and baseflow, and 34 years for groundwater heads. Methods of autocorrelation, spectral analysis, cross-correlation and coherence function were used. Results of auto- correllograms for discharges, groundwater heads and base flow values showed a very distinct 11-year and 21-year periodicity. Spectrogram analysis documented the 11-year, 7.8-year, 3.6-year and 2.4-year periods in the discharge, precipitation and air temperature time series. The same cycles except of 11-years were also identified in the long-term series of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Pacific Oscillation indices. The cycle from approximately 2.3 to 2.4-years is most likely connected with Quasi-biennial oscillation. The close negative correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index and the hydrological surface and groundwater parameters can be used for their prediction within the same year and also for one year in advance.

Open access

Kamila Hlavčová, Silvia Kohnová, Marco Borga, Oliver Horvát, Pavel Šťastný, Pavla Pekárová, Oľga Majerčáková and Zuzana Danáčová

Abstract

This work examines the main features of the flash flood regime in Central Europe as revealed by an analysis of flash floods that have occurred in Slovakia. The work is organized into the following two parts: The first part focuses on estimating the rainfall-runoff relationships for 3 major flash flood events, which were among the most severe events since 1998 and caused a loss of lives and a large amount of damage. The selected flash floods occurred on the 20th of July, 1998, in the Malá Svinka and Dubovický Creek basins; the 24th of July, 2001, at Štrbský Creek; and the 19th of June, 2004, at Turniansky Creek. The analysis aims to assess the flash flood peaks and rainfall-runoff properties by combining post-flood surveys and the application of hydrological and hydraulic post-event analyses. Next, a spatially-distributed hydrological model based on the availability of the raster information of the landscape’s topography, soil and vegetation properties, and rainfall data was used to simulate the runoff. The results from the application of the distributed hydrological model were used to analyse the consistency of the surveyed peak discharges with respect to the estimated rainfall properties and drainage basins. In the second part these data were combined with observations from flash flood events which were observed during the last 100 years and are focused on an analysis of the relationship between the flood peaks and the catchment area. The envelope curve was shown to exhibit a more pronounced decrease with the catchment size with respect to other flash flood relationships found in the Mediterranean region. The differences between the two relationships mainly reflect changes in the coverage of the storm sizes and hydrological characteristics between the two regions.

Open access

Miriam Fendeková, Tobias Gauster, Lívia Labudová, Dana Vrablíková, Zuzana Danáčová, Marián Fendek and Pavla Pekárová

Abstract

Several quite severe droughts occurred in Europe in the 21st century; three of them (2003, 2012 and 2015) hit also Slovakia. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used for assessment of meteorological drought occurrence. The research was established on discharge time series representing twelve river basins in Slovakia within the period 1981–2015. Sequent Peak Algorithm method based on fixed threshold, three parametric Weibull and generalized extreme values distribution GEV, factor and multiple regression analyses were employed to evaluate occurrence and parameters of hydrological drought in 2003, 2011–2012 and 2015, and the relationship among the water balance components. Results showed that drought parameters in evaluated river basins of Slovakia differed in respective years, most of the basins suffered more by 2003 and 2012 drought than by the 2015 one. Water balance components analysis for the entire period 1931–2016 showed that because of continuously increasing air temperature and balance evapotranspiration there is a decrease of runoff in the Slovak territory.

Open access

Massimo Iovino, Pavla Pekárová, Paul D. Hallett, Ján Pekár, Ľubomír Lichner, Jorge Mataix-Solera, Vincenzo Alagna, Richard Walsh, Annette Raffan, Karsten Schacht and Marek Rodný

Abstract

The extent (determined by the repellency indices RI and RIc) and persistence (determined by the water drop penetration time, WDPT) of soil water repellency (SWR) induced by pines were assessed in vastly different geographic regions. The actual SWR characteristics were estimated in situ in clay loam soil at Ciavolo, Italy (CiF), sandy soil at Culbin, United Kingdom (CuF), silty clay soil at Javea, Spain (JaF), and sandy soil at Sekule, Slovakia (SeF). For Culbin soil, the potential SWR characteristics were also determined after oven-drying at 60°C (CuD). For two of the three pine species considered, strong (Pinus pinaster at CiF) and severe (Pinus sylvestris at CuD and SeF) SWR conditions were observed. Pinus halepensis trees induced slight SWR at JaF site. RI and RIc increased in the order: JaF < CuF < CiF < CuD < SeF, reflecting nearly the same order of WDPT increase. A lognormal distribution fitted well to histograms of RIc data from CuF and JaF, whereas CiF, CuD and SeF had multimodal distributions. RI correlated closely with WDPT, which was used to develop a classification of RI that showed a robust statistical agreement with WDPT classification according to three different versions of Kappa coefficient.