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Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım and Ahmet Eren Yıldırım

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between consumption, investment and unemployment in Turkey using structural VAR (SVAR) models. The four different SVAR models are estimated by using quarterly observations of dynamic and contemporaneous relations for the mentioned macroeconomic variables, covering the 2005-2016 period for the Turkish economy. Four different unemployment rates are used in the study to represent the unemployment rate in the Turkish economy, which are overall, young (15-24 age), male and female unemployment rates. Impulse response functions and variance decomposition results obtained from the study show that consumption shocks have a significant impact on both the unemployment rate and the investments, in support of the basic hypothesis that is argued in the study. Investment shocks also have a similar effect on unemployment rates and positive investment shocks have reduced unemployment rates. Moreover, another result obtained in all four models suggests that a shock in consumption increases investment through the accelerator effect.

Open access

Özge Filiz Yağcıbaşı and Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım

Abstract

In recent years, there has been extensive research on the conduct of monetary policy in small open economies that are subject to inflation and output fluctuations. Policymakers should decide whether to implement strict inflation targeting or to respond to the changes in output fluctuations while conducting monetary policy rule. This study aims to examine the response of alternative monetary policy rules to Turkish economy by means of a DSGE model that is subject to demand and technology shocks. The New Keynesian model we used is borrowed from Gali (2015) and calibrated for the Turkish economy. Welfare effects of alternative Taylor rules are evaluated under different specifications of central bank loss function. One of the main findings of this paper is that in the case of a technology shock, strict inflation targeting rules provide the minimum welfare loss under all loss function configurations. On the contrary, the losses are weakened if the monetary authority responds to output fluctuations in the presence of a demand shock. Finally, there exists a trade-off between the volatility of output and inflation in case of a technology shock, while the volatility of both variables moves in the same direction in response to a demand shock.