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  • Author: Martin Potůček x
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Toward the methodology of social forecasting

K metodologii sociálního prognózování

Stať rozebírá přístup Centra pro sociální a ekonomické strategie Fakulty sociálních věd Univerzity Karlovy k formování a uplatnění svébytné metodologie sociálního prognózování. Podstatným rysem tohoto přístupu je orientace na identifikaci klíčových problémů České republiky a cest jejich řešení a účast diferencovaných aktérů na tvorbě a uplatnění samotných prognóz. V letech 2000 - 2005 a 2006 - 2011 proběhly dva relativně samostatné prognostické cykly, které vyústily do návrhu modulárního přístupu k tvorbě vizí a strategií.

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in ERGO
Value anchorage of social forecasting

Hodnotové ukotvení sociálního prognózování

Stať rozebírá možné přístupy k identifikaci a uplatnění hodnotových východisek v sociálním prognózování. Zobecněním zkušeností z práce Centra pro sociální a ekonomické strategie FSV UK a s využitím mezinárodních inspirací dospívá k závěru, že kritérium kvality a udržitelnosti života a jeho ekonomická, sociální, environmentální a bezpečnostní dimenze poskytují solidnější základ pro hodnotové ukotvení sociálních prognóz, vizí a strategií, než by tomu bylo v případě dosud často užívaného indikátoru - hrubého domácího produktu.

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in ERGO
Czech pension reform: how to reconcile equivalence with fiscal discipline

Abstract

One of the recent changes in the Czech Republic’s pension system was provoked by a petition to the Constitutional Court. The setting of bend points for determining the amount of pensions depending on the insured person’s previous earnings was contested as discrimination against higher income categories. The Constitutional Court granted the petition. The result was an approval and implementation of an amendment to Act No. 155/1995 Coll., on Pension Insurance, that for the purposes of calculating the level of old-age pensions favoured the highest income decile at the expense of most other insured persons, namely those with middle incomes. Simultaneously, the political criterion of fiscal discipline was applied to ensure the financial sustainability of the pension system. In analysing this case, we critically adopt the theory of actor-centred institutionalism and the theory of the policy cycle. From the nature of the analysed case it follows that we pay attention mainly to the legislative process which resulted in the amendment. Our methodology is dominated by analysis of documents (legal norms, court decisions, political programmes, official publications) and political and administrative communication (including debates on legislative drafts in the executive and legislature).

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Rivalry of Advocacy Coalitions in the Czech Pension Reform

Abstract

The Czech Republic, as many other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, faced and is still facing a pension-reform challenge. The diversification of pension pillars led to the massive displacements of participant contributions from the public PAYG pension pillars to the newly constructed private, defined-contribution, fully-funded pillars. In the Czech Republic, the adoption of the relevant law was preceded by serious political conflict between supporters and opponents of this step (both among different political actors and among professionals). In an analysis of the conflict we critically apply the Advocacy Coalition Framework. We work mainly with the analysis of policy documents, public statements of the individual actors and an analysis of voting on the relevant law in both chambers of the Czech Parliament towards the identification of the crystallization process of two clear-cut coalitions between actors from both sides of the spectrum. The Advocacy Coalition Framework in exploring the dynamics of the public-policy process proved to be able to explain situations where there is sharp political conflict. Through the lens of the devil-shift of both camps (advocacy coalitions with different beliefs), each fell into extreme positions within the coalition to affirm the correctness of their arguments and positions.

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