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Oleg Deev and Martin Hodula

Abstract

This article investigates the validity of the money superneutrality concept for the large panel of European economies. While focusing exclusively on endogenous growth theories including the Mundell-Tobin effect, we examine the long-run response of real output to a permanent inflation shock in every studied country using a structural vector autoregressive framework. For the majority of countries in our sample, the longrun superneutrality concept is confirmed since the original increase/decrease in output growth fades in time. We also test the additional hypothesis of whether the group of countries with smaller in-sample inflation mean forms the exception to the long-run money superneutrality. As the result, modern economies might be better described from the viewpoint of Sidrauski.

Open access

Martin Hodula and Lukáš Pfeifer

Abstract

In this paper, we shed some light on the mutual interplay of economic policy and the financial stability objective. We contribute to the intense discussion regarding the influence of fiscal and monetary policy measures on the real economy and the financial sector. We apply a factor-augmented vector autoregression model to Czech macroeconomic data and model the policy interactions in a data-rich environment. Our findings can be summarized in three main points: First, loose economic policies (especially monetary policy) may translate into a more stable financial sector, albeit only in the short term. In the medium term, an expansion-focused mix of monetary and fiscal policy may contribute to systemic risk accumulation, by substantially increasing credit dynamics and house prices. Second, we find that fiscal and monetary policy impact the financial sector in differential magnitudes and time horizons. And third, we confirm that systemic risk materialization might cause significant output losses and deterioration of public finances, trigger deflationary pressures, and increase the debt service ratio. Overall, our findings provide some empirical support for countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies.

Open access

Martin Hodula and Bohdan Vahalík

Abstract

This article provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between oil-market fluctuations and technological structure of EMU export. We rely on a time-varying parameter VAR model to capture the reaction of different technological structures of EMU export to various oil-market innovations in the period 2002-2015. Our results can be summarized as follows: (1) increase in crude oil production is likely to reduce oil prices and therefore increases all EMU exports due to lower production and transportation costs; (2) increase in global demand is more likely to be transmitted to goods with higher added value; (3) high-tech exports decrease in the first months after the global demand shock as a result of a delayed investment decision process; (4) increasing oil prices yield only marginal effect on EMU export.