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Lucjan Gucma

Exit of Safety Waterway Navigational Accident Probability Assessment Model Based on Navigation Cycles Concept

The paper presents the concept of ships exit of waterway navigational accident probability assessment. Model enables to determine the total probability of accident during ships passage through waterways. Data from simulation trials or real experiments could be used as the input data.

Open access

Lucjan Gucma and Marta Schoeneich

Monte Carlo Method of Ship's Underkeel Clearance Evaluation for Safety of Ferry Approaching to Ystad Port Determination

The paper is concerned with the analysis of simulation research results of newly design Piast ferry entering to modernized Ystad Port. The ship simulation model is described. After execution of real time simulations the Monte Carlo method of underkeel clearance evaluation is applied to asses the probability of ferry touching the bottom. The results could be used in risk assessment of ships entering to the ports.

Open access

Lucjan Gucma

Abstract

The paper presents several issues of risk management in respect to ship collisions with bridges. Accident statistics in Poland and around the world, risk acceptance problems and two case studies for probability assessment are presented

Open access

Lucjan Gucma, Wiesław Juszkiewicz and Kinga Łazuga

Abstract

According to the HELCOM AIS, there are about 2,000 ships in the Baltic marine area at any given moment. The main environmental effects of shipping and other activities at sea include air pollution, illegal deliberate and accidental discharges of oil, hazardous substances and other wastes, and the unintentional introduction of invasive alien organisms via ships’ ballast water or hulls. Original oil pollution model and optimal allocation of response resources was proposed in the paper.

Open access

Krzysztof Marcjan and Lucjan Gucma

Abstract

One of the most important concepts concerning the safety of navigation is the ship domain. The maritime domain is one of the oldest domains, which preceded the ones used in aviation, railway industry, chemical industry and medical. Through the concept of a ship domain is to be understood a certain area around the vessel, which the navigator wants to keep free of other fixed and moving objects. Navigational situation can be considered safe as long as no other ship neither any navigational obstacle would not exceed the area. In order to build and develop methods to assess the safety of the navigation, a ship probabilistic domains for three types of vessel encounter situations were determined based on the AIS traffic monitoring data. The aim of the paper is to present a method to identify navigational incidents on the basis of a probabilistic domain, which can be used to assess the safety of navigation and discovery places potentially dangerous for navigation in the selected areas of the Baltic Sea.

Open access

Marcin Przywarty, Lucjan Gucma, Krzysztof Marcjan and Andrzej Bąk

Abstract

This paper presents assumptions and process of the forming of a risk assessment model for collision between a passenger ferry departing from or approaching port of Świnoujście and a chemical tanker carrying a dangerous cargo. In order to assess navigational safety on the basis of data obtained from AIS system, were prepared probabilistic domains of ships, which made it possible to estimate number of navigational incidents as well as their spatial distribution, that consequently allowed to determine potentially dangerous areas. The next phase was formulation of a simulative model intended for the calculating of probability of collision between the ferry and chemical tanker as well as the determining of characteristic scenarios for such collision. This paper presents also an analysis of consequences of the collision with taking into consideration a damage of cargo tanks.

Open access

Artur Waluś, Lucjan Gucma and Grzegorz Putynkowski

Abstract

The paper presents the stages of quantitative coefficient of marine seismic researches creation for the geophysical vessels towing the geophysical seismic equipment understood as system of seismic streamers where set of geophones are installed. The quality coefficient of geophysical research works is based on the mathematical model of the deviation of the position of the arrangement of streamers geophone points with relation to their idealized position. The proposed coefficient can be used during realization of seismic researches and for short-term prediction of their quality.

Open access

Andrzej Bąk and Lucjan Gucma

Abstract

The method of risk assessment based on ship systems technical failures during the passage in the region of Świnoujście of the large LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) tanker is presented. The statistical reliability indicators and the simulation model of ships manoeuvring. The researches carried out within this paper let to determine the safety level and necessary tug escort service during the passage of the ship with the hazardous cargo in the port area.

Open access

Kinga Łazuga and Lucjan Gucma

Abstract

The paper presents research related to optimal allocation of response vessels. Research belong to the logistical problem, location-allocation type (LA). Research is focused on vessels belongs to polish Search and Rescue. For the optimal allocation of resources used two-stages method wherein the first stage, using genetic optimization methods and consist in such allocation of response vessels to minimize costs of the spill at sea. In the second stage uses an accurate simulation model of oil spill combat action to verify the solutions obtained by genetic algorithm method.

Open access

Lucjan Gucma and Julia Raczkowska

Abstract

This paper presents results of an analysis of the operating and maneuvering parameters (length, width, draft, main propulsion power and maneuvering equipment, and windage area) of the Ro-Pax ferries over 150m in length. The analysis takes into accounts all ferries operating in the Baltic Sea in 2017. The work also includes route analysis of the collected Ro-Pax units. The influence of port infrastructure is also discussed. The mean optimal Baltic Sea Ro-Pax ferry and its parameters for short term and long term forecasts are presented. This paper may be used as a primary guideline for the determining the optimal Ro-Pax ferry dimensions size for the Baltic lines in terms of preliminary ship design.